After sticking my neck out by
saying Boeing will go North of 762 frames this year, they do a "Crazy Ivan
and go South with a 740-745 prediction number for 2016.
This
becomes a story of "The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly". Starting with
ugly to get it over with and then moving forward until reaching
Good. I will explain my own thoughts on the matter. The Ugly was announced
earlier when it was announced the 747-8i reduces production downward to 6 a
year. A sign and a symbol the 747 has reached a final death spiral only to be
saved by a weakened freight market even if it revives itself for making new
orders. The Boeing hope and plan is to maintain 747 production long enough for
freight to come back. This is getting ugly for the 747-8 concept.
The bad
is found in the weak spot of Boeing's aspirations, it is in transition with two
new models. A production blemish will occur in 2016 and possibly lagging
into 2017. Both the 737 Max and 777X family of aircraft are emerging, but the
former aircraft, the 737 NG and the 777-300-ER have to keep churning out
the door. They can't maintain the pace it has set from the optimal production
days of the last five years. Until the 777X swings to delivery mode and the Max
goes to market in 18 months, the Boeing production juggernaut is at a
production dock for refurbishing. The year 2018 should bring Boeing production
numbers back greater than 2015's numbers. No alarm is sounded on the production
floor only the sounds of installing, implementing and improving production
capability for new aircraft.
The good
well is just very good, the production lag for the transition of going to the
best airplane manufacturer of the single aisle, and its large wide-body, the 777X. The Max
first flight is for this Friday, January 29, 2016, and it will beckon the single
aisle era forward with the best of the show. The "Transition" period
slows production, but the 787 will make Boeing's day going forward. The Boeing
story in 2016 will be about sales (regard to BBY). It is a constant unknown
until the year ends. No prediction can made except by Blogging hopefuls
and watchers of the aviation world. We only have production to measure with
during the year. But Airbus can't make the production run yet meeting Boeing's
diminished prediction of 740-745. Boeing will be the largest Aircraft
manufacturer for another year in a row.
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