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Saturday, August 25, 2018

The Real Stealth Of The F-35

It is, of course, the right question finds the right answer. The "What is it?", becomes the real stealth. Lockheed has spent copious billions on an idea hoping "others" might build into that idea as the audience would with do with a slight of hand exchange at the marketplace. The F-35 main weapon is sensor fusion. Not aerobatics, no missiles definitely not exceeding range with speed. The real stealth is Lockheed's confusing description of how good it is at everything. The but, the best question, will be is that stealth of hand be enough?

The trick is not in the aerobatic realm nor is in the superior performance capability, but is in the con job of not knowing what's coming next. Applause is heard after ejecting when an F-35 pulls the chair out from underneath another J-20. Those who call it an "underachieving pig", just don't get its purpose. When asking Lockheed, you get different answers as if a magician never reveals how it does its tricks of deception.

The stealth is in what little knowledge is available for modern warfare. If fighting from the back of a dark age thoroughbred stallion awaiting a ladies favor, then the Russian and Chinese solution is for you. But if not using a sword or lance in combat on a stout mount, then the other stealth is best done without vectoring nozzles for the dogfight. The real stealth is what deceptions the F-35 offers. Nobody knows how to use its invisible capability on the world's stage. Every adversarial nation and some allied nation are seeking what the F-35 is about with no luck providing the answers.

The following answers are available. It has a stealth which is being dissected. It isn't a good dogfighter. Its slower than a Mach 2 aircraft. It doesn't go far enough on its load of fuel. The missiles on the wings are not adequate for its capabilities. It glitches every day as so the sellers of news have wanted to print or broadcast for its advertisers.

So what is the F-35? It's a slight of hand when describing its attributes. It's deception beyond performance. It connects all the moving parts. It will have a laser light show. It's flying is for everything "bolted" on within the course of its real stealth, called deception. The dogfight becomes more medieval than efficient. Penn and Teller would be proud of the F-35 since so many have said so much about its shortfalls, the Lockheed corporation built vast numbers of F-35 deceptions. It rapidly becomes worth the money spent on its real performance. Horses on the battlefield are so 18th century.

Friday, August 24, 2018

The F-35B, The Best, A Beast and Brass

Those could be the words that an F-35B exemplifies. Imagine a Mach 1,6 advanced stealth fighter that can be deployed to a few acres with a fast jet designation. The F-35B is Britain's next step up for quieting adversaries not compliant with the free world. Helicopters have long carried the load from rooftops or parking lots. The F-35B is possibly the best beast for the fight. Helicopters...well have its place.

Quote: From Lockheed Martin Publication

"The UK will declare F-35 maritime Initial Operational Capability in 2020. When the new carrier comes into service, the F-35B will dominate the skies for decades to come. Squadron Leader Andy “GARY” Edgell, RAF, is the first UK military pilot to complete a takeoff from the ski jump with an F-35B.
“The performance of the jet has been great. As the pilot, I have to do very little to accomplish a perfect ski jump takeoff,” commented Edgell. “I push the STOVL [short take-off vertical landing] button to convert to Mode 4, push throttle to mil and use the pedals for minor directional inputs to remain on centerline.”
The "Swiss Army Knife" of the skies will change the battlespace as it issues a variety of capabilities from just a 300-foot stripe of firm surface with a ski ramp at its end. The HMS Queen Elizabeth is about to find out if years of planning and engineering of its ship makes for a perfect F-35B storm. 
The imagination for those in the know is the only thing stopping this collaboration is political will. The war has changed and now it only remains to see if the F-35 idea was well conceived or a total failure. Those who make money talking about failure and the F-35 in the same space haven't been paying attention.

Thursday, August 23, 2018

How Big is the Boeing Everett Plant?

Bigger than a Tulip Farm in Everett, Wa., that's how big. Going from north to south.
                                                                                   Wing:787:   777                                   Paint
Image result for Boeing Everett Factory 

Roof Photo:                                                                   N-Wing↓White: S-787↓black roof: Paint↓ 
Aerial View of Everett Boeing; View from South to North; includes 777X Wing Building; Puget Sound; Sunny Day; Blue Skies; K66575

If you can figure out what I'm describing then you win! 

Tuesday, August 21, 2018

"Note To Self", Aviation's Market Doldrums Is August

There are only so many airlanes sold and upgrades made during the month of August. Several airlines have now penciled in completing Rolls Royce Engine check by the end of 2018, returning respective fleets to full service by year's end. Biman received a delivery on its first 787. Now you know what the aviation doldrums looks like. Not even another redo comment on the 797 program progress. Not even an announcement scintillating the reading public about a Farnborough post-show order firming. The August aviation doldrums are for real stifling the nonsense crowd into making noise over another Rolls Royce chipped fan blade.

Therefore or furthermore, fighting fires with aerial tankers flying off of lakes and into the timber, are the most dynamic news,

Below: CL-215 water-scooping air tankers working the Howe Ridge Fire August 16, 2018. InciWeb photo.
Back left dropping the load on the trees. Front center scooping run. "All dangerous"
CL-215 water scooping air tankers

That is a really cool picture on an August hot doldrum day in Montana. See those trees in the background? I camped near those same trees on this same lake (McDonald) in Glacier National Park with my family in Montana. 

Now you know what a fire zone war space looks like with water tankers. The lake acts as some gigantic extinguisher. It's very dangerous work and tremendously exhilarating to watch the experts fly with their necks on the fire line. Homes were lost and that portion of Glacier Park is closed. My beloved Fish Creek Campground may make it through the firestorm.

The Howe Ridge fire was some distance from the lake on August 16 (below), and now it has burned to the water as shown in this US Forest Service fire photo below this first photo in the pairing.

Howe Ridge Fire in Glacier National Park

Image result for Howe Ridge Fire

August Aviation doldrums looks an "awful" like this in Glacier park from Lake McDonald Lodge dock. I also spent a lot of time on this dock during the summers of my youth. If I were there I would be not fishing. This is the Howe Ridge fire burning to the water's edge sending some campers into the water for a boat rescue. 

The Hungry Horse News Is A Great Newspaper! It has the best history and photos in this region. One of its photos below of the aerial combat zone with a tour boat running for safety.

Fire cooking Howe Ridge again in Glacier Park 2

Glacier park will live on after I'm gone but at least I made it my place from 1971 when I worked in the park as these parts are familiar to me, but I never saw a water tanker like this on Lake McDonald. Been on that boat though.

Tuesday, August 14, 2018

Boeing Orders Posted Today Post Farnborough


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One contemplates the Boeing order book and sees many missing parts of the order book puzzle. Missing is the Viet Jet number for 100 Max Boeing signed for as a firm order and a massive shift from unidentified to named aircraft carriers not changing the book total over-all by zip. However, the good of the bad and ugly is Boeing has a sizable number of aircraft not listed as of July 31, 2018, as a firm order. If Farnsborough Boeing numbers do eventually show up on the Boeing order book it could easily exceed 750 units ordered during 2018 as of this date today. But having accountants pouring over deals is a full-time job requiring 2080 hours a year per accountant on salary and the year is only 2/3rds through with another 700 hours out of each accountant to go before the end of the year. Below is a mishmash of Boeing's order book to date. Good luck on being cogent about its importance until some big deals not listed show-up. Below is the summary book as of July 31, 2018 per Boeing's own website.


Monday, August 13, 2018

Southwest Airlines Ponders A Weighty Matter

How much an airplane weighs is very important. It's as important as a passengers caloric intake each day. Southwest airlines discover it needed to weigh. 68 airplanes which had incorrect weights documented in its database and needed a weight measure do-over. were grounded until weighed. Weight and miles have a direct impact on how much fuel is burned for a prescribed distance.

Fortunately for passengers, a donut eaten onboard a 737, does not increase the weight of the payload, but 24 hours later a passenger may have to buy new clothes for the trip home because that donut has expanded the passenger's horizons by an inch at the waist.

Saturday, August 11, 2018

The Three Days Of F-35 War

Recently the Dutch featured its F-35 flying through the Sierra Nevada Range of Mountains in California with a Photo Journalist on Hand here is the result of this photograph.

Dutch F-35 in Beast Mode.
Image result for F-35 Beast mode





Beast mode Day Three of war

For those who wonder why we have a stealth aircraft which would not evade radar when bombs are hung on its wings. The answers are simple. The three days of airwar is for the F-35-A, B, and C.

Day 1: Stealth, Stealth, Stealth
Day 2: Long range Air to Air combat
Day 3: Beast Mode mop up.

Day one is for internal weapons load for taking out radar systems making them blind to the F-35 stealth. Having those systems down makes adversarial missile systems useless against the F-35 and makes the F-16, F-15 and F-18 players fused into the F-35 for Day two of war maneuvers. 

Day two is air to air combat day which the adversaries will be flying blind to all American fighters synced with the F-35, Satellite, and surface systems. 

Day three is a non-stealth day for the F-35 Beast mode for all aircraft. Including the B-1, B-2 and eventually B-21 Raider. The F-35 can now play Quarterback and direct the US arsenal with impunity setting stealth aside and using the F-15 Strike Eagles for any remaining aircraft coming up to meet this aviation armada unloading on the combat airspace.

Beast mode will clean the battlefield's deck eliminating armor, bunkers, and hardened position allowing the ground forces access for eventual victory. The electronic war is already neutralized on day one. Even its Satellites overwatch will be space junk for any adversary using that type of electronics for battle use.

Friday, August 10, 2018

Perhaps Boeing Not Posting Its August Orders and Delivery For August BY 8-10,

...is a sign it has too many orders from Farnborough it needs to sort out! Anyways the stats guy probably was cut and the newbie hasn't found the desktop keyboard on week one of the new job. Boeing tech miskeyed the "r" from orders sending everyone looking under desks for those pesky odors. Anyway have a nice day, as I sit and ponder about orders.

Tuesday, August 7, 2018

The 797 Boeing Bluff Card For Airbus

The 797 bluff Airbus into building a skinny A321NEO for eroding the Boeing intention of an NMA aircraft. Boeing's intent is still valid, but after looking at CFM's lagging production of its Max and NEO engines it becomes a concern to re-evaluate the scenario for building a "797".  Boeing needs a second engine producer as the CFM consortium wrestles with engine production woes on the new engine. It can't make enough fast enough! Boeing is taking a step back for design, Plan B and accumulating costs for a new program such as the NMA project.

Boeing will come out with an appropriate offering by 2019 but with a dwindling market from Airbus nick picking the NMA potential for medium sized aircraft. The A321NEO does have a market ceiling and it nears that ceiling by 2019, at the expense of some potential Boeing 797 sales. However, with a two engine type offering, it could bounce Airbus hard with landing more NMA orders expected. I would expect Boeing is toying with two 797 types and then two different model within the type.

The two types would be for 220 or 270 seat carrier with each having two different engine types for each capacity. This would follow true when building a passenger/freight version and that becomes the Boeing sticking point. How will it build a passenger only variation while building a passenger-cargo holding variation? North America indicted it is good with a passenger only configuration while Asia wants some cargo capacity with its own delivered form. Boeing could opt for the former AKA; North American over the "Asian". The Asian model may be dropped from consideration, suffering some more market loss but not necessarily to the A321NEO option. It sounds more like another Boeing Moonshot is in the offing.

It's Complicated: Boeing is taking a break from the 797 concepts until later in 2019. The final rendition for an NMA will resemble more of a conventional ovoid body with an enhanced cargo bay. It will have new engines and 787 like technology infused into its frame. It will have Everett made wings out of carbon fiber. It needs a significant weight reduction over prior generation airplane types. Even though Asia won't get all it wants, but it will get a 797 having traditional cargo space that no in-class competition can produce when it arrives. The Asian market won't lever Boeing. Boeing will not complicate the final NMA solution. 

However, the engine award is going to be a single sourced supplier. The engine is the most complicated item Boeing is facing on this program at this time. It may take Boeing more time than it intended when selecting an engine. Rolls has its problems and CFM has not untangled its production shortfall. Either one would be a risk of not delivering fast enough during the 797 onsets of delivery that Boeing is willing to risk. Boeing is displaying an NMA bluff card where Airbus counters with its A321NEO in the meantime.

Boeing can take the play with its bluffs and frustrate the Airbus team with different conceptions until the 797 firmly announces.

Saturday, August 4, 2018

Boeing's Deferred Cost of 24.5 Billion

Boeing has 674 undelivered 787's. If all were delivered it would need $38.3 million contributions from each delivered aircraft. Fortunately for Boeing, it has booked more orders and will book more orders by year's end. 


Deferred Costs Soaks The Monopoly Man At Boeing
Image result for monopoly man

When building and delivering at least 135 units a year, Boeing may exhaust that backlog over the next five years as it approaches the 1400 unit block point it has established after announcing these unit numbers for eliminating the deferred balance. 

The 1400 unit block requires a $34.2 million per unit surplus as a goal when having five years for building 716 units as an example by 2024. It's a good prediction that is influenced by a more profitable 787-9 and -10 in the production works than its less profitable 787-8 which are already optimized on the production line.

In conclusion, Boeing already has 716 backlog units even though not all booked at this time, but it should exceed that number when posts its August report for July 2018. Therefore, the profit dollar must maintain an average of $34.2 million dollars per unit (profit margin ) delivered over the next five years in order to reduce its 787 deferred cost balance, which has now dropped to $24.5 billion from the $28 billion benchmark.

By 2024 Boeing may add another 500 units to its backlog than it has today even when building 144 787's a year at a 12 a month rate. The deferred balance total is a solid bullseye in Boeing's sights.