Boeing's 797 Hiccup

The long awaited 797 announcement, well, has become "long-awaited". The reasons why are legion. Winging It hopes to enumerate a few of the big stumbling blocks.

• Risk still exceeds reward.
• The timing window has shut.
• The bridge is too far

These are only a few delaying insecurity blankets weighing on Boeing with its decision-making for the 797. The top three are just opinions about what's up with Boeing and the 797 but are valid concerns.

The risk issue is causing Boeing great heartburn. What if Airbus can answer Boeing with an A-321 NEO type offer? What if Boeing's enthusiastic 797 customers back off and move-on-by without ordering the 797 because the customer already has adequate 787's and 737's? The questions keep pounding away at the risk stake and burying the reward portion of the equation. Boeing is on a tetter-totter vacillating back and forth to go all-in or play-it-safe. In my humble opinion, Boeing is too far down the 797 road to back off. They will risk it all for the promise of great reward and call Airbus' bluff building the NMA starting last year.

The timing window was ripe in 2018 but the Boeing wet insecurity blanket stopped them from opening that window of time because of the draft in the house was already a steady breeze. The timing for an announcement was late 2018 as an optimal point in time and now its become almost an afterthought for a 797 announcement which has now lost some market impact when/if it announces a 797 program at a later date. Paris is only a few months away and Boeing could sweep the show with some very large 797 Launch customer orders making the time window wide open again. Boeing will have to revolutionize aviation with this new concept and swoon the market away from Airbus.

Finally is the "Bridge Too Far"? Referring to an old World War II movie of the allies marching through the low country of Europe for capturing bridges on the Rhine river thus ending Germany's pillage of Europe. On the last bridge or the main target, it failed to take the biggest bridge at the Arnhem bridge crossing. Unlike World War II, Boeing's 797 bridge is an integral part of its offensive and without taking the bridgehead it could lose the aviation war. The movie and book emphasized the Bride Too Far war objective was unnecessary. Boeing is hesitating because it can't determine the 797 importance in this case. Boeing must cross the "Rhine river" in order to win the war. Arnhem was not needed to allies. The 797 is needed for Boeing.

It's About 141 Days Until The 797 Will Be Announced At Paris

After revealing over 1,000 engineers are working engineers directly on Boeing's 797 concepts, Paris is just a spot on the world stage for a big announcement event. The reveal will include launch customers and pending LOI's finalized after the first announcement is made. The tally at the launch will approach five hundred 797-7's and 797-6's consisting of both firm and MOU orders. Firm orders will be the launch customers. The American 797 order tally will include United, Delta, American, and SWA,

United is a prediction for at least a 50-50 firm to MOU orders and Delta will not be outdone with its own 50-50 intensity. American will become more conservative until the 797 program flies with the proposed engine. It may slowly sign in with American Airlines for 25 797-7's. Noe European Boeing customers may surprise market watchers when Ryan Air comes out with a 250 seat proposal for a 797-500 niche  NMA which sculptures in 250 passengers at a time using a dual aisle efficiency. It airport plane disembarking and embarking can cycle faster than the single-aisle with the small dual aisle.

The 797 NMA was made for Asia and orders could come in at a surprising rate. ANA almost bought the 787-8-300 during those heady days early years and now engineering blocks have been mostly removed during the sum of all Boeing's program. The 797 programs could risk making P&W engines with its GTF1000's making it an NMA specialty engine for every 797 airframes. After following some articulate about the GDF shortfalls, it indicates this is a better concept for the jet engine performance. The GTF has years of "efficiency catch-up" from its supply chain and faces a continuous problem solving from the wear during operations, while it is in service or on a wing. Boeing has a chance with P&W for the introduction of this engine with a clean sheet. P&W also has the developmental playbook overly corrected and lessons learned on the 320NEO program will springboard Boeing with a 50'000 lbs thrusts from P&W GTF engines'

The final count summary suggests a great show announcement will reach over 400 orders not counting any MOUS. The design completion percentage at launch announcement will be in the 80-90% range awaiting final customer input after which a formal launch announcement will automatically close all major changes unless a customer will buy 100 aircraft like Ryan Air did for 200 737 seats per plane. 

The Kerosene and Cargo Plane program 46 has arrived to the USAF

It was a matter of time this would happen and consuming the time it took. Boeing let loose two of its KC-46's today giving the Airforce a try on its own with the KC-46. If you thought it was flawed and full of problems according to every languishing journal in the press about the KC-46, it's natural to report even the dust balls in the cargo hold was found expressing a high volume of vitriolic comment as the social media authority. However, with the KC-problems, the Airforce has taken on two KC-46's with a Boeing promise to fix those same problems. If this makes sense then you are a defense contractor at heart.

Know this:

The Airforce and Boeing have been talking a long time about glitches and operational weaknesses. Both major players have spent copious amounts of time fixing hundreds of items during the first tranche of KC-46's delivered. The big problem publicized is the boom operators occasional vision glare during refueling with a receiver aircraft when the light angles just right. There is a workaround making the fuel transfer not an exact straight line operation of doing a fuel load at any angle of operation. The aircraft has to change its heading slightly to do the job. At best it could be called an awkward moment but manageable and not mission ending at all. This could be a three-year fix to develop new screens and software to mitigate the occasional glare problem at certain angles of light in rare cases.

The countless other checklist fix items are worked through during its initial operations with the Airforce which can be handled as encountered or tested once again as a defective glitch. The KC-46 will need operational time flying to fully wring out the kinks but the Airforce has seen enough from Boeing that the two principals will in a short time make this a valuable asset for the military. In fact, the Airforce cannot dilly dally about the program as its own legacy tanker dies of old age. It must induct a better tanker in the KC-46 even with some flaws rather than wait for all the fixes to come about. It can fly the KC-46 on missions today better than what it has on its own inventory like the KC-135. The time has come to backfill the airforce with manageable new tankers replacing its old tankers as fast as it can.

The Airforce would have not taken these first two from Boeing unless the light was seen from the end of the tunnel. The risk is very low and all fixes are now considered doable during the next years of operations.

The A380 Last Days

There are 331 firm orders by 18 customers for the passenger version of the Airbus A380-800, of which 234 have been delivered to 13 of those customers as of December 2018.

The Boeing 777X has a total of 326 orders matching what Airbus did with its market swallowing A380 for 331 orders. Boeing has no new orders for some time and Airbus is struggling to keep its A380 production model from an untimely death.

The Boeing intent is to nullify Airbus at every corner and it appears they have done so with its 777X offerings. This WB corner is awaiting the other shoe to drop from a Boeing announcement for a new medium-bodied (NMB) aircraft already assigned an unofficial family model number with an unofficial 797 designation. Boeing would love Airbus to counter punch before that NMB announcement with its A321 extended model.  Boeing may have its ducks in a row and will announce this summer at Paris for the 797 families of aircraft.

The A350-1000 is supposed to be a 777-300-ER killer but already it has met its match with the Boeing pair of 777-8X and 777-9X. The A350-1000 can carry 365 passengers for 8,400 miles. The 777-8x meets those Airbus metrics or exceeds them when considering the 777-8X while its 777-9X exceeds it by seating 405 passengers and loses some ground when flying for only 7,500 miles. But paired together the 777X model is a better fit for airlines when buying the two model layouts for the 777X. The 777X is just bigger and more efficient than the 777-300-ER, or the A350-1000.

The A380 can't compete and only in seats provided with a standard 500 seats it has to fill each time it takes-off. It's just a matter of time before airlines can dump the A380  and that will directly improve the 777X order book when the A380 reveals it has few takers for used A380 aircraft. The early sales attempts to support the notion of an A380 after-market points directly at Boeing's aspirations and not Airbus family of aircraft. 

The 777X is a long term project where if Airbus would roll out a design today to match it, it would be 10 years in the making for a first delivery A350-1100. It's in the midst of already examining a Boeing argument with a new A-350-1100 look for 400 plus passengers. Airbus is stuck with the Airbus A-350 line-up and it can only lengthen the design or widen it at the expense of going clean sheet to meet the 777X challenge. Airbus can't at this time afford an A-350 clean sheet for 400 passengers without stockholder fallout and a limited market segment and a return on its investment. 

Boeing has jumped Airbus on this thin segment with the 777X program. It would be unwise to clean sheet a New WB to cover its mistake with its own A380 prideful blunderings. The A380 program has died and an A-350-1100  would be an unwise venture unless Airbus can knock one out of the park clear to the moon. It sounds like Boeing's own moonshot is now paying dividends over the Airbus the A-380 blunder.

What Does Boeing Say, 777X At End of 1st Quarter

Dinesh Keskar, senior vice president, sales, for Asia Pacific and India at Boeing Commercial Airplanes says, The 777X will roll out by the end of March 2019. It's time to look at your calendar and mark it up with a highlighter. Today is January 15th. End of March is just 70 days away or about 10 weeks to go. It is a Tuesday today.

My best guess will be covered on Boeing's own website on a Wednesday, March 27, 2019. A Friday or weekend party would lose eyeballs for the event. The number seven is in play for the 27th. Add 27 together it equals the number 9 in the nomenclature for a 777-9X. Using this superior logic, an announcement could include a launch for the 777-10X when adding 7+7+7+9= 28 or combining those digits to a -10X. The number game could continue but it's easy to see March 27, 2019, as the roll-out date.

Remember this posted observation for a 777X rollout date. Science and math had everything to do with this prediction. Intellect had little to do with this guess. I had only one case of Diet Dr. Pepper and a case of Cheetos to rely upon when preparing for this event. Watch Boeing.com for further details coming soon. Almost all the 777-9X's "flying testbed number one" has all its lightbulbs screwed in. I have a reliable source inside Everett, Wa. who knows when the roach coach brings lunch outside those same big doors as the flying #1  777-9X leans against those same big doors from the inside, and that's just the same as being a plant forklift driver. The forklift knows when test equipment is moved closer to the aircraft and that's saying something big is happening. Test equipment is being added and light bulbs screwed in the first 7779X. Did I mention the windscreen washer has already been tested and the bugs on this aircraft have been removed?

What Hath Boeing Bought

Embraer has its own commercials pitching its product. However, if trained for the detail, Boeing has merged with an excellent product. It fills the Boeing lower capacity gap at many levels sans military.

Enjoy this advertising rendering as Embraer-Boeing goes forward with its added value.

Is Glitching The Process Or The Problem?

When something as simple as a newly installed light switch fails to turn on, it is called a "glitch". "The old one was broken that is why we bought and replaced with a new one", is a common sentiment, when in fact the circuit breaker in the garage popped off during the last power surge. The airplane manufacturer has the same problems but on a larger scale. They have a full PR team to handle glitches found on a newly built model like the 787 had way back in 2010.  The conference room geniuses needed a new word to solve the problem and it was "Teething woes".

The airplane customer AKA the airline model suffered through those same teething woes and sometimes it was not a simple fix. The big example is the 787 battery problem. It grounded the 787 Boeing product for up to three months as they did a major workaround from its garage in Washington state engineering a battery firebox and venting battery gases since the battery was only used for ground operations and not flying, but flying a burning LI battery is extremely dangerous for its passengers. They airplane could come down and suffer a complete hull loss flying over who knows where. Boeing then came up with "teething woes".

The common glitch on a new product suggests an incomplete process when building any product, especially a new one like the 787 during its entry into service back into 2011-2012. The failing new light switch in the home could be wired wrong, the part is defective, or the circuit breaker in the garage had shut off the power. It wasn't teething woes and it was the DIY guy in the home providing the simple fix imagined turning into a nightmare. The TV wouldn't power up on Superbowl Sunday and the DIY hero was over his head with a new teething woe. Never fear, the popcorn is heard but the cable truck just pulled up for the ultimate fix.

Link:

Authorities Find Cockpit Voice Recorder of Crashed Lion Air Flight 610

Here we go, Lion Airs Flight 610 has just found its voice recorder in 26 feet of mud. Once restored, it will replay the cabin's cacophony of panic in a disaster from the mud intombed device. It was still pinging thus the device could be located. It had only a few more days of pinging left in it before it went forever silent. The importance of the flight recording may assign the blame for the crash. The crew on board may have followed the wrong procedure or possibly the ground team did not validate the problem being fixed! But only validating a part replacement was used under a certain operating condition. Boeing and the others wanting a legal win for its clients will look at the flight recorder in only one context. Did the Lion Aircrew act in a professional manner which covers training, experience, and advice before it went down? Did Boeing understand an unrevealed problem could occur with the new Max under certain situations? Either way, a flight recorder will make it easier to assign final blame.

Why Verdana Font and Orange Fill for This Aviation Blog?

Everything seen on these pages is blogging with a purpose, and not just an attraction for a reader to enjoy this content. The following nuances from the Winging It blog try to follow these layout points for a subliminal experience with the blog opened in full view.

Note underscored below but an important point for the main article. The bullets points are not links.

·      The Color orange represents the afterburner glow of the jet engine

·      It represents the extra power of the Blog signaling those items linked in the blog as an orange and pleasant experience if s reader goes further with a higher sped following the Link

The two bullet points above are not links but are very important subjects on the color orange in the blog.

The following example of how the blog works. As for reading on one blog talking point about the Embraer -190-195. The blogger then enters a notion hits the use for a blogging “Links” with an orange/Verdana font. Clicking on a Winging It hyperlink or underscored by linking line and going orange demonstrates a way for the reader to further enhance his content from a different subject source.

To illustrate this blogger conceptual idea further, He has chosen a Boeing Embraer alliance joining up from a discovered need from both company’s and making a solution through its products.  Embraer needs a complete market place and Boeing can give them that for its commercial aircraft in trade for additional working engineers which Boeing lacks because of its vast industries. Boeing needs to be seasoned and advanced engineers are already used up for the 777,787 and797 programs. It truly lacks at this business needs and Embraer has them ready.  They also have a valuable family of aircraft that will change the aviation world for years to come.

Afterburner Time: Below is an After-Burner type Hyper-Link underscore opening up a further discussion’

Brazil Concurs with the Boeing Offer. The orange afterglow is represented on the border of the page with a soft orange tone.border is a color not unlike the font of and gives Embraer A Whole Deal Signed.

The soft color of orange framing the background should merge the reader’s thoughts within the aviation world’s place of pure aspirations for flying aircraft. It’s not the sky or blue ocean driving the aircraft but the sum of all the aircraft parts propelled by its engine. The afterburn comes from the initial thrust is spent and that’s were Winging likes to live, in the area where the aircraft can accelerate beyond the engines designs with a little extra fuel thrown into the back of the engine

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What Does Embraer Do For Boeing?

Here below: is the standing order book from Embraer that Boeing will work with over the next multiple years.

Wikipedia Chart as of October 31, 2018

Boeing can and will increase firm orders for the Embraer-Brazil division. The merger will give Boeing a complete suite of aircraft in which to compete from 66 passengers to 405 passengers with its aircraft. Embraer builds even smaller than 66 seats, but Boeing will focus on the E170-E195 class of Embraer aircraft.

E-170  66-78 passngers
E-175 76-88 passengers
E-190 96-114 passngers
E-195  120-146 passengers 

The Paris airshow, this year, will be an interesting affair as both Airbus and Boeing will be showing respective orders from Bombardier CS 300 and the Embraer 190-195 as an event feature for small commercial aircraft. Most orders are filled with multi-year delivery schedule giving Boeing enough time to catch the Airbus A-220-200/Bombardier(CS300) efforts. Boeing didn't buy Embraer for its scant backlog of 119 Embraer models, but it will energize sales for this type of aircraft by tying/complimenting with the 737 line of Aircraft. Expect a common avionics suite for Embraer aircraft for its  Boeing customers. Also, expect a common engine family using the leap-1B type in its line-up. These considerations will take time as in another five years before Boeing/Embraer engineers, Boeing stuff, without giving up what Embraer brings to the single-aisle table. 

E-195

CS-300

Watch the Paris show for Embraer 's presence with orders and its own workforce/lead engineers, who will be and should be demonstrated in the front and center during the 797 is announced. Delta is in a position to take those models as being the North American launch customer for the 797. If not, there are other airline friends eager to assume the prestigious spot as 797 launch customer for the 797, who would enjoy having the Embraer as a side-kick in its family of aircraft and I'm thinking of United at this point. It is a "United" front looking over Delta's shoulder and one slip by Delta will make its own aircraft buying quest, less desirable, as they would lose the leverage it has over Boeing. Airbus will make Delta another sweet deal for its new A220/ Bombardier program.

I have flown on both the Bombardier Regional Jet and was impressed by its comfort and style but it lacks some refinement. I have also flown on the Embraer and it was very efficient and comfortable with nice passenger qualities but it lacks some passenger room. Did I even know who made each respective aircraft when I first sat down in the seat, "no"?

Both needed a better manufacturing logo throughout the cabin. I rarely read my ticket, only for seating assignment.

I just liked the leather seats on the Embraer and the Bombardier was a little noisy. But it does count when the accountants and ground crew get a hold of one of those models. It's now up to to the handlers when managing the product. Both Airbus and Boeing will have something to do with each frame and it will fall into the manufacturer's grove. I would see A220 becoming slightly wider than the Embraer base by about one inch and the Embraer slightly more efficient than the A220 by the length of the final approach. Airbus continues its quest from a "more is better" attitude, and Boeing moves with a "better is better" approach, it's still a horse race at the jetway.

What does Embraer do for Boeing, It makes it competitive?

Brazil Concurs The Boeing Offer, And Gives Embraer A Whole Deal Signed

The last post on January 9. 2018 encouraged Brazil to confirm the Embraer-Boeing merger in a 20-80 partnership share. Certain high-end concerns were validated for Embraer with Boeing to make it a done deal. Below are links to two articles which tell the back story of this deal with a bloggers commentary and a journalistic report for the deal completed.

• Brazilian government approves Boeing’s acquisition of Embraer’s commercial jet operation
• The Embraer-Boeing Deal Is Waiting Government Approval

Two Things A Bird Needs, The Right Wing and The Right Power

Boeing controls its wings and has unveiled a recent sketch of its Transonic design which will take the commercial jet farther, faster and higher. World hopping will become the new normal in the next decade of airplane development. Boeing will be forced to do something in order to make Airbus a second rate builder of aircraft.



Transonic: Boeing's futuristic 'truss-brace' design was developed with Nasa. Photo / Supplied 

Birds are the next step in Boeing's progress. Boeing controls its own wing making and has unveiled a recent sketch of its Transonic design which will take the commercial jet farther, faster and higher. Once again, "World hopping" will become the new normal in the next decade of airplane development. Boeing will be forced to do something in order to make Airbus a second rate builder of aircraft.



Transonic: Boeing's futuristic 'truss-brace' design was developed with Nasa. Photo / Supplied 

Next focus, the Albatross, the peregrine and the Humming Bird are what nature provides for Higher, faster with power from its respective wings and metabolisms. The hummingbird beats its wings at an alarming 2,025 beats per second and burns its energy accordingly thus needing plentiful flower nectar every so often in order to survive. 

The Albatross just glides for thousands of miles across vast distances without even a wing beat, The Peregrine Falcon dives at 250 mph just using gravity and its aerodynamics for the dive. It goes faster than a skydiver 10 seconds after jumping from the airplane. Boeing will use the hummingbird beat in its new engines as the turbine blades rotating exceedingly fast and then use the Falcons aerodynamics to make the speed seem natural. 

NASA has been working with Boeing to achieve a concept as pictured above.

HowStuffWorks Credit  Albatross

Humming Bird Making 2,025 Stokes A Second 

Peregrine Falcon Poised to Dive

Aerodynamic Transonic Bird

Boeing 2018 Biggest Airbus 2018 Player

Airbus loves to play Boeing as it dumped 435 orders on its book in the month of December 2018 alone. Even though it fell short of Boeing by 146 orders for 2018, Boeing did nudge Airbus for world's largest aircraft builder by 806-800 units. That too is a surprising number for Airbus as it gained more ground on Boeing production. Surprise, as Airbus plays Boeing in its end of year count.

The Embaer-Boeing Deal Is Waiting Government Approval

Boeing on paper has an 80% share on Embraer commercial airplane business. The government is being wary thinking Boeing could end up with 100% of that deal. Brazil wants to maintain a partnership. Boeing could assimilate Embraer's product with a total Boeing small body using the merge of engineers from Embraer's own on the Boeing payroll. It's a tenuous position for Brazil as there are many workarounds that could lead to a complete Boeing ownership.

Brazil wants a dog in this fight going into perpetuity. Boeing needs to somehow guarantee Embraer/Brazil has a permanent 20% position no matter what Boeing does with its further development of smaller-bodied aircraft coming North to Boeing investors. Embraer does want to keep a 20% share of all things Boeing in the commercial arena. I tend to agree on the surface with Brazil's position but the government needs to step back and not make this current paper agreement void. Boeing must be able to show Brazil's future with this agreement no matter what Boeing does with this segment of Aircraft. It would benefit both the people of Brazil and Boeing that it confirms Embraer product is only an extension of both makers with a commonality interface.

Boeing needs to meet Brazil halfway with this newly acquired smaller body market segment. This would address Boeing's concerns as well as Brazil's political concerns. The deal should be finalized with the support of the nation's people beyond the private enterprise phase it had just entered. Taking Brazil's government to a sidebar would be valuable to both investment groups from Embraer and Boeing. In Brazil, private enterprise must flourish for the benefit of its people and Boeing needs to make that case and give Brazil its guarantee in behalf of Embraer when benefitting Boeing from Embraer's hard-earned aviation progress.

Boeing Has Its 893 2018 Orders

Boeing Booked 893 airplanes, meeting a moderately high Market objective during a year with Asian implication stalling the industry's order flow.

Below is the Airbus Target but further analysis will compare a type by type comparison when final Airbus numbers are reported by Airbus adjusting to the Boeing order report.

Boeing did confirm a total of 893 net units where Airbus reported by end of November 2018 only 380 ordered. It will need an additional 513 orders booked in December in "order" to catch Boeing. That goal is probably unachievable for Airbus unless it has been holding many (year's worth) of orders until year's end, as is it may be tempted to do with a show of order force if it could?

By the way, Boeing delivered a record 806 units which will make it the world's largest Airplane builder once again. Its almost a 1 to 1 book/bill ratio for 2018.

893/806= 1.108 BB Ratio is outstanding and the desired target.

The Airline Industry Pauses For The 777X

Since 2004 Boeing has with its 777

• 796 Delivered
• 38 Backloggedged

It also has 326 orders for the 777X

• 53, 777-8X
• 273, 777-9X

This does not include any LOI's or optioned 777X orders on the intent book.

Randy Tinseth, Boeing VP Marketing has observed, “It’s the airplane that will replace the 747-400, ultimately the 747-8, and it is going to replace the A380,” telling reporters on the sidelines of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines assembly of presidents in Jeju, South Korea on October 19, 2018.

He also commented, “The 777-8 is really about the replacement for the 777-300ER, and we’re not going to see that replacement cycle for that aircraft until we get into the next decade.”

All-in-all, Boeing is timing the market for its 777X and not imposing a whole new type of technology into the marketplace like it did with the 787 families of aircraft. Boeing most definitely is trying for another strategy during the 777X program, by using already paid for and proven technology coming from both the Max and Dreamliner programs. In fact, Boeing is trying to reduce its deferred balance when using 787 costed technology on the ongoing 777X program. The balance acquired when funding a developmental moonshot for its 787 programs was for its whole family of aircraft from the 737 to the unannounced 797. Boeing intends to pare down those deferred costs labeled 787 when it feeds the Max and 777X with proven aviation advancements from those programs. The commonality factor is helping pay for carbon wings and avionics suites Boeing now uses on its products that came from the 787 programs during the years 2006-2012. It is also is developing new technology from each aircraft type made which could be retrofitted onto its other family of aircraft in development or use.

The pause comes for the 777-8x as it only had about 53 orders. Once the airplane concept performs in tests, Boeing sees its established 777 clients pushing 777-8X orders forward in 2022. The market will heat up for that type as many Boeing customers own 777-200ER and 777-300's. They could trade a 20 years old 777 classic in for a 777-8X starting by 2022. When first 777-9X delivery is made in 2020 an airshow will be the event and with would come more 777X orders. It sounds like the London Airshow will make some 777X excitement during that event in 2020.

As remaining 777 backlog remains but is wrapping up as the 777X starts its production run the transition from 777 to 777X is right on time when considering five years ago how Boeing will fill the order book they have just done that. The program capacity will be placed for timely orders going forward as this WB tests out over the next 18 months.

Hub and Spoke vs Free Market

The old hub and spoke model used to dominate the landscape. Briefly, the theory is to bring 1,000's of passengers to a huge hub like LAX and then redistribute its customers on an appropriately sized aircraft to a second location found on a passengers' itinerary. 

LAX Hub And Spoke Commercial Aviation Model


The direct flight model eliminates the hub found in New York, London, or Frankfurt. It can fly from a "second-tier airport "Oslo Norway to Hawaii if a market need is determined. Thus the freedom of destination is not confined to a hub. Airbus was left with only one competitive thought, bigger is better. Boeing went with the better is a better model and it sold almost 1,500 787's by 2019 when counting reliable commitments in the order pit.

It's a two to one market impact over Airbus. The hub is not a panacea for airline travel as the Euro maker was left to hope for, it is better is better open free market only using a hub when efficient, or just flying directly when the market allowed. The Boeing gamble paid off as there was a vast flight market segment untapped until the 787 moved in during 2012. 

Seven years later, the paradigm has shifted away from the A380 and B747's into direct flying into the Caribbean from anywhere. The Carribean was a place the A380 was not allowed due to its immense size. Smaller countries and smaller airlines now have a dog in the fight after buying the 787's in numbers, and it did just that, a new free market emerged without flying indirectly through a conforming hub.

The market saw this opportunity of going anywhere directly rather than having passengers sit for hours in a super hub waiting for a cramped single-aisle flight. 

However, single-aisle have a place as well and it is the main profit maker in the airplane manufacturing business. The market freedom concept has space remaining for new concepts unless counting the emergence of the 797 closes that "gap". 

Hub marketing has a place and is not the total answer. Airbus did not look at the air travel market wisely, it just wanted its pride to reflect what it could build and the A380 is dying an inglorious death. Even though the 1,500 747 production models earned a wonderful title, "Queen of the sky's", the A380 may earn the inglorious "Elefante Blanco" title.

The A-350 is just not good enough and too big for airline sensibility for the passenger buck even though passengers may enjoy the extra 5 inches spread across nine seats and two aisles. Giving the 1/2 inch advantage per item if ever utilized. The 777X is a culmination of this airplane story as it will outdo the A-350 1000, effectively, and put reasoning in boardrooms at a premium.

United Airlines Lines Up Its 787

United's own market strategy shows on its sleeve at a Texas BBQ. The airline bottom line is a 787 fleet. The metaphor spells Boeing equipment. Other airlines may seek a market strategy with a style and substance of mixed fleets. Delta is a good comparison with United Airlines as it uses multiples of Airbus product along with some Boeing sprinkled in. Delta seems to play the market and United seeks a Blue chip investing with Boeing as shown below.

Left to Right United's 787-10, 787-9 and 787-8. Photo Credit: United Airlines

The Boeing approximately recapped*

Airbus Product    170
Boeing Product   600
787 grouping       40
Fleet size           771

Important Boeing consideration is the preponderance of 737 and Boeing widebody in its fleet. Renewal skews towards Boeing product.

Delta:
Airbus Product:  241
Boeing Product: 514
A350 grouping:   11
(other MD)        123
Fleet Size:         878

An important consideration, Delta is in a flexible situation for either Airbus or Boeing fleet renewal it is rumored that Delta would like to be the 797 Launch customer. A truly plausible assumption at this point.

*planespotter data

B-21 Raider, Until The Year 2100

No, It's not 9:00 PM or 2100 hours but the year 2100. The B-21 Raider will fly for the next seventy-five years until the year 2100. Calculating the B-21 will enter its service in the year 2025 makes for a neat estimation of 75 years since the B-52 is counted on for 80 years of service. So the B-21 could be for 75 years of service. Sounds reasonable.

B-21 Raider  front and center as imagined

The B-21 objective currently stands at a 100 unit USAF proposal. If costs are contained and an open architecture remains, then more might be built during the next 30 years. It could amount to 200 units produced by the year 2080 for the Air Force. That's how many it will need replacing its remaining B-52, B1, and B-2 bombers. Of course, the B-21 itself will need replacing from its early flying copies as technology and weapons evolve. The B-21 must learn to live in its initial skin having an ability to insert upgrades and functionality.  The Raider has to become the "new" B-52 without having following on Bomber proposals very 10 years. Doing a Bomber proposal every10 years will "break the US Bank". The Air Force must adapt to one bomber concept and not keep rolling out another we should have done this prototype every so often. It must work within its own skin as well!

The B-21 bomber is perceived as that one bomber and it will not be replaced by at least fifty years unless it morphs with technological progressions. It will reach 200 units built in the long run. 

Open Those Doors will Move That Bus

Ty Pennington used to scream "move that bus", thus revealing the "Extreme  Home Makeover". Now Boeing is about to move that Airbus out of the widebody centerpiece with its own 777X makeover of a 777300ER. The first one that will fly, now has "its GE9X engines hung with care". Good old Saint Nick will approve of that comment. "Dash away, dash away, dash away all!" The 777-8X and 777-9X will begin its dash starting in a few months and well before Christmas 2019. Like going "crazy" is so hard to do when a Boeing is on the flight line. Neil Sedaka props below when breaking up the definitions. Like this is a monumental event when waiting so long. 

This could be called Metaphor Monday or Semile Sunday depending on what day of the week works for you.  Number 1 is the metaphor on Sunday which emblematically uses one thing which strangely represents another thing. Number 2 Monday compares one thing to, "well like", another thing. Above it is your job to find the metaphor and then find the word like as all good teenagers insist on using the word "like" when taking a breath mid-sentence. Is the word "insanity" like the word "normal" only different? Is this just metaphorically speaking?

Move that bus(metaphor) and open those doors(metaphor) like (simile) you mean it. 

777X Showtime Nears

It has been reported by several news outlets the engines have been hung on the 777X like on a Christmas tree in the Everet, Wa. factory.



Dominic Gates says so, so it must be true.

First Flight will light my fire.

flyadeal and Green Africa Is A Strong VOC For Boeing

Boeing has a strong vote of confidence for its Max program when closing its 2018 order book. It remains to be seen if Boeing will add to that total until final sales numbers are posted on its website. Green Africa, as mentioned before prior to this blog, it ordered 50 firm orders and 50 options for the 737 Max and then flyadeal reported its own 30 Max with 20 options.

What this means, Boeing has turned a previous Airbus customer, "flyadeal", into a Boeing customer. This becomes a strong Vote Of Confidence (VOC) for Boeing heading into 2019. The backdrop for these announcements is the Lion Air 737 crash that killed all its 189 passengers. The owner of Lion Air has rebuked Boeing by canceling its order book with the manufacturer. It looks like Boeing has almost replaced those Lion Air outstanding orders since the "accident". More importantly, airlines who are considering a 737 in light of the Lion Air accident are ordering the Boeing single-aisle over an Airbus consideration.

That in itself is a positive signal that Boeing has emphatically beat back any loss of customers in the head to head battle outside of Lion Air's cancelations. Boeing can move past this accident even as the final report on the incident has not yet been published. It appears Boeing has taken corrective actions for mitigating any misunderstandings from lack of sensor situational awareness or how to control a failure under a similar Lion Air mishap scenario it had experienced. 

It appears Lion Air knew of the unairworthy condition and did not seek assistance from Boeing on how to address the problems from its previous Max flights for the same Lion Air aircraft. The lack for Lion Air including Boeing on the perceived fault it had encountered, suggests a failure by only Lion air to include all remedies from its own experienced problem. It has fallen on the sward of its own incompetence.

Boeing cannot assume the responsibility of others when others act in an unprofessional manner which leads to a catastrophic aviation incident. Based on the scant public information reported on this crash it is natural to observe Lion Air cannot make a case when it has not addressed its own professional responsibility when knowing an aircraft had a flight problem beforehand and did not include the manufacturer with this problem as the problem exceeded beyond a mere maintenance issue having great consequences.

The legal battle is to attack any defendant having the deepest pockets and that happens to be Boeing and not Lion Air. But the cause of the problem lies with Lion Air's confusion and its lack of gaining direction from Boeing who had not experienced this type of problem nor could foresee a problem of this nature coming.  

Lion Air made the decision to launch a flight of an unworthy aircraft full of passengers. Boeing is not excused but becomes more of a victim of Lion Air's own incompetence when it did not involve the maker declaring it an unworthy or "unflyable" 737 Max. Judging from reports, it failed to notify Boeing or solicit a resolution to make it a flight worthy aircraft before embarking on its final flight. 

The Lion Air problem is systemic from the top down. The crash could have and should have been prevented if a sound procedural protocol existed and prevented this questioned  737 Max from even flying until all problematic flight conditions were resolved.

Customers who are now signing/firming for 737 Max orders have had time to digest this implication and are now ordering in the face of Lion Air's 737 Max crash that killed all 189 of its passengers. The VOC has made its round trip complete for Boeing with these recent orders.

Lion Air has Failed to "Assume Responsibility Forward To Boeing With This Crash"! In the face of known problems and lack of airworthiness of this one Max aircraft it owned. Lion Air owns this traject mishap.

Counterpoint:

Popular Mechanics Lion Air Summary Report in below link: 

Lion Air Pilots Tried to Override Technical Glitch Before Fatal Crash

Reports Mumble The 777X Will Fly This Spring

Hyperbole is hard to fathom when talking about the GE9X engines. They are huge as in the biggest jet engines in the world. The 7779X is as long as the 747-8i. It will seat up to 425 passengers, a Super Jumbo type with seat numbers. It only has two engines though. Waiting for the big factory door to open before the first flight is an insane task. Who can wait that long? The long trail to flight trials is really long. So seems the race to its first delivery! The job description has shifted from writing about everything under the sun that is new with Boeing aviation to writing new stuff every day about the 777X. It's no easy task, but blathering on and on about no change is an art form.

It is assumed, that I am some kind of typo artist and Boeing is the chosen topic. Roll up the sleeves and write something 777X that hasn't been written. 

Landing gears come to mind but there are more items on the to-do list like 777X cup holders.  777X windows should have a bloggers look-see, but I already have windows 10 on my computer. However, the 777X window will be 15% larger than the 777-300ER windows, but they will be placed at an eye level that reduces slouching when viewing clouds below. The neck is saved for another day. Can we say 737 NG?

However, and furthermore, it will be a wider interior by about a half an inch over the 777-200. That really counts when a focus group discusses 10 abreast seating before coffee and donuts are served for the select members of any focus group. The whole point of the meeting is finding out if jelly filled are preferred over cream-filled before trying to wedge into 10 abreast on a 777X. 

I say, "cream filled"! That is what is worth blogging about regarding the 777X progress as we all wait for that second enormous engine(in this case ginormous) to be hung on the first flying test 7779X. Its first engine is already one and hung. Engineers get paid too, they are figuring out when the second engine can be hung before their 401K expands further before first flight.

The engineers opted for jelly filled because it looks so engineered with this option. The donuts are not day old stuff you usually experience at a focus group. It is really present day fresh because the budget has been set for a long time. This is white-collar work anyways. So its fresh out of the parts bin. Cost over-run? "I don't see no stinking cost over-run!"

The 777X will have space to fit all those tight jeans boarding any flight and that is today's news before its first flight this spring.