Thursday, January 21, 2016

Air War Heats Up with "Who are Those Guys?" (Breaking News/Updated)

Boeing announced simultaneously as Airbus touts its Bahrain order at the latest Gulf Air Show.

Rueters: "The loss-making state carrier placed an order for 17 Airbus A321neo and two Airbus A320neo aircraft, building on an existing order of 10 A320neos planes, worth a combined $3.4 billion."

However, the "not so fast my friend", response comes bubbling forth from "The Street":

"United said Thursday it will buy 40 new Boeing 737-700 aircraft, which will replace a portion of the capacity operated by its regional partners. Deliveries will begin in mid-2017. "

"Separately, Southwest Airlines says it has finalized terms on a purchase of 33 slightly larger Boeing 737-800 aircraft -- a deal first struck in December, but only made public last week. Reporting earnings on Thursday, Southwest noted that it's "accelerating" the retirement of its older Boeing 737-300 and 737-500 aircraft. The additional 737-800s will help to keep Southwest's all-Boeing air fleet at full strength." 

BTW: it’s about a $9.8 Billion list price book order change for Boeing at Bahrain, combing the United Airline order for the forty 737-700 Max (rumored at half that price), and now the 33 737 SWA NG's, using a list price calculation . However, using Airbus fuzzy math, I could go further with this side by side examples and say 16, 787-9's plus 40, 737-700 NG's (equaling a cool $6.9 Billion List)and the 33 ($2.9 Billion list) SWA's are all booked-in at about $9.8 billion using list price calculations, just as an Reuters/Airbus article would infer with its own obvious accounting for 17 A321Neo and 12 A320's. There is no way a "net" 19 Single aisle A-320-321 order are valued at $ 3.2 billion per Reuters. Unless it is calculated the Airbus way... Fuzzy

My counter to Airbus' claim becomes fuzzy too, add another thirty-three SWA 737-800's, list pricing for $2.9 Billion to the above mention $6.9 billion comes to an almost $10 billion sales week for Boeing. Using my "Winging It" Approved Price Cyphering and Methodology (APCM), it's going to be a Boeing Big Year (BBY) with sales. Boeing just finalized 73 single aisle 737 NG's this week and upgraded an order for 16 787's. As fuzzy as ACPM math becomes, it keeps up with the Airbus model for bragging about its sales engine. Seventy-three single aisles ordered is seventy-three booked, sixteen 787's upgraded is sixteen 787-9's sold with Airbus accounting schemes, and that's a big month, also that's "Billions BBY".

Airbus friendly report:
Boeing is often skewed by the Airbus sponsored math 

Back to Bahrain: "It also converted a previous 16-Dreamliner aircraft order from the U.S. manufacturer, Boeing, upcharging to 16 wide-body 787-9s from the previous 16 787-8s ordered. 

Gulf Air said, "it anticipates delivery to start from the second quarter of 2018." 

There is an unknown upcharge at this time for the Boeing 787-9 book change. It complicates the net change valuation going from the 16, 787-8's (a prior earlier order price) coming from Gulf Air's January 18, 2008 order, and then flipping it to 787-9's during 2016. 

The net difference becomes a mysterious special price for Gulf Air's 16 787's up charged to 787-9 values eight years later. My estimation becomes a 3.6 billion sales book change total for Boeing coming from both deals mentioned. These calculations are derived from Boeing's list prices and an unknown premium emerges from upcharging 787-8 to the 787-9 price. Winging It uses list price valuations for its estimations. So a tenuous conclusion is a part of the $3.6 billion in Boeing's order playbook.  

Billions shifted and Boeing tops the charts. Boeing wins the battle with victory number 1 at the start of BBY/2016. Even though Airbus owns the European press, all Airbus milestones become slippery and fuzzy as reported.

What this means is Boeing has not gone away for Airbus, as Boeing wins the early 2016 battle of the "Who Are Those Guys" Trophy. The catch phrase comes from the relentless pursuit of bad guys, as the Boeing posse comes storming back after the "many" bad guy/Airbus tricks. The bad guys continuously play the "obfuscation card" attempting to lose the Boeing Posse. The leader of the Airbus Gang exclaims, "Who are those guys?", out of frustration from the Boeing Marketing team selling aircraft on its heels! I do hope, I made this fuzzy for people stressed at work.

Remember for all those who Wing It, 2016 is going to be a "Big Year" (shhh). Boeing is being nonchalant and it claims it’s not going for a big year. However,It's going to spot more than 762 birds past delivery.