Thursday, October 22, 2015

Late 2015 787-9 Orders Start Arriving

Norwegian Air says, order 19 787-9 and order 10 more options for the same. "Winging It" had predicted during all of 2015, Boeing would get its 100 787 orders. Because? It was due to happened and a gut instinct nuanced by operational cycles of four-five 787 years on many customer's fleets. The 787 count currently stands at a dismal 26-787 booked in 2015, now it can add 19 more 787-9's to that same book. A full Qantas order is not yet added and Ethiopian Air has not yet finished penning it book orders for 2015. Emirates is a hanging chad order with Dubai coming up. China is not done for 2015 wide body orders. The end of 2015 will push the 787 order book past 100, as it only needs to fill 74 = and now 55, and EVA air(24)= 31 to go 787's for the end of the year making up the "787's for 100 in 2015".

A combination of two to three customers will do the honors for Boeing and its customers as it will probably capture another 31.

"Boeing values Norwegian Air’s firm order at more than $5 billion at current list prices and says the deal is the largest single order for 787-9s from a European airline."

Boeing will close 2015 in a flurry of widebody orders where it may catch Airbus fattened order book in dollar value.

The Norwegian deal signals the 787 has entered into a fleet expansion era over fleet renewals of aircraft. The operational success found in the 787 is beginning to churn sales rather than the need for replacing old equipment. Those airlines who have piloted success with the 787 are now expanding market reach with follow-on orders. They now have a Boeing 787 equipment edge and are leveraging this edge through market expansion with the same equipment ordering.

The first batch of orders for the 787 during the 2008-2012 period were based on fleet renewals. This second layer of ordering has a basis in fleet expansion. Qantas/Jetstar has 787 operational knowledge for its 787-8's. Norwegian Air has achieved its operational Vision through the use of its 787. Ethiopian is ready to conquer its region as it has deployed a core of 787 making its dreams a reality. Many other airlines are sitting well and so far in silence, until the fleet expansion orders roll in. China is a region that is pivotable for the world's air travel. China's airspace is situated in the world for linking people with people. The 787 was built for flying over the pole from China or circumventing the Pacific Ocean. China is really situated for the 787. 

The 787 order book could easily swell to 1500 787 aircraft ordered by 2020. Currently Boeing marks 1097 787 booked in total. It's just a matter of time, as the 787 markets keeps expanding. The Airbus offering is late to the market gate. Most airlines depend on consistent financial conditions. That is why they have five year plans. Boeing is close to breaching into a five year backlog as it stands back with a 764 unit backlog for 787’s. The Build rate of 125 787 a year, times five years, equals a 625 unit reduction for its 787 backlog. However, the annual order rate variable changes as airlines determine its own capability through fleet aging, market expansion and financial sourcing. That order rate variability is a tricky composition for Boeing when matching its production capability with market demand.

Boeing has taken the position of building the orders booked as fast as customers will take the 787 into the market. It's paid off on several issues looming over Boeing stock values. It has generated cash from delivery. It also has made strides towards perfection of its production floor and supply chain efficiency. The downline providers can plan better and make more efficient gains in an "active supply chain".  All of the high 787 production solves multiple problems in its one function. Though not being a program panacea. However, it is the most efficient way solving Boeing financial conundrums while satisfying market demands when Airbus is not ready for filling in the inventory gaps Boeing can provide at this time.

A Boeing strategy has come together from the production floor. If a customer orders an Airbus WB fleet today, Boeing can now deliver faster using its smaller backlog and higher production rate. That same niche of Boeing WB could be making revenue sooner for the customer than if placing an order with Airbus. Airlines tend to like that product feature almost better than cheaper fuel prices. A Boeing 787 delivered 18 months sooner than placing an Airbus A350 order, fixes the annual report for customer stockholders giving the customer a significant advantage of 18 months of "sooner" than could be done otherwise ordering the A350. The "sooner" becomes aligned with the customer’s five year plans.