Giving The KC-46 The Bidness

Bidness.com has summarized the KC-46 program's history aptly. It is time to copy and paste its article to the blog, because it covers and encapsulates so much of the program history. It is a link worthy article, but not without some Winging It oversight first. The much disputed Tanker competition has reached a climax, before it starts matriculation into the military bases. The cost and the efficiency has finally sorted out for the KC-46. What awaits is its operational trial, coming from the ground up with military gloves. The KC-46 Pegasus is first going base-wide for ten stations to places like McConnell Air Force base.

Perhaps the fixed cost program is the way to go. However, it was constrained by the caveat, a commercial airframe was the starting point. This little nuance really affected and enhanced keeping a lid on the project costs. The F-35 and the LRB projects will not be so lucky. They need a military compliant design features from scratch paper. A daunting and costly invisible ceiling exists, which ultimately dictates how many LRB's will be built. The F-35 is too far down the road to turn back from constraining it with an F-22 limit for 179 of its type built. The F-22 has been recognized as a fighter in need, and the US Air Force needs more of its type and it will not (never) receive those extra F-22's.

Bidness Report On The KC-46 Pegasus:

Boeing Co.’s (NYSE:BA) KC-46 Pegasus tanker, the replacement for the aging KC-135 Stratotanker, is designed to aid the US Air Force as well as foreign allies during warfare. The winner of the KC-X program is expected to enter service by 2018, with the first operational aircraft poised to be delivered in 2017.

KC-X Project History

The KC-X program invited aircraft manufacturers to provide the military with 179 tankers by 2027, with the contract worth approx. $35 billion. The proposal request was issued in January 2007. Besides Boeing, Northrop Grumman and Airbus (at the time known as EADS) jointly bid for the project with their A330 Multi-role Tanker Transport (MRTT).

The Northrop Grumman offer was selected in February 2008. However, Boeing challenged the decision and lodged a protest with the Government Accountability Office (GAO). The GAO reversed the decision in June, leading to the Air Force reopening the bidding process a month later. By September 2009, the military was ready to accept new proposals, leading to both competitors renewing their offers.

In March 2010, Northrop pulled out of the bidding process, while EADS elected to remain in the competition. Eventually, in February next year, the Air Force named Boeing the winner.

KC-46 Development

The development of KC-46 was marred with multiple delays and cost hikes with every passing year. In 2011, development costs were calculated to be $300 million above the cost cap of $4.9 billion. By 2014, the figure had risen to $5.85 billion, and in 2015, it stood at $43.16 billion, compared to $35 billion estimated earlier.

Boeing was hit twice with pre-tax charges of $272 million and $835 million, respectively, during the aircraft’s development. The $272 million charge was over redesigning of the wiring on the tanker, as the wires were fixed in close proximity and were improperly shielded, not meeting Air Force’s specs related to redundancy. The second charge was due to redeveloping of the integrated fuel system; many of the fuel components did not meet standards of production.

Initial assembly on the first KC-46 began on June 28, 2013. On December 28, 2014 the first test plane without any military and refueling equipment underwent a successful test flight, followed by a completely equipped KC-46 undergoing its first test flight on September 25, 2015. In November, the plane began its initial tests to get certified for air-to-air refueling, which it successfully passed.

The Winging IT study guide for North America

KC-46 Features

The KC-46 is based on the KC-767-200 Long Range Freighter, with an enhanced version of the KC-10’s refueling boom as well as cockpit displays from the 787, which allow for night vision compatibility as well as plug and play consoles that can be switched around. Aspects of the 787, such as improved technologies used in manufacturing the craft as well as improved electronics, were also borrowed.

The tanker is expected to refuel all fixed-wing aircraft from domestic military services as well as foreign partners. Power will be provided by two Pratt & Whitney PW4062 turbofan engines, with 63,300 pounds of thrust each. The plane has a seating capability for 15 personnel, including the standard crew of three: the pilot, co-pilot, and boom operator.

The jet craft can carry 114 passengers if required, though 58 is the standard number. It can also serve as a flying hospital with a little reconfiguration. In an aeromedical evacuation operation, the plane can accommodate 58 patients; however, six patients may still be housed in a regular mission. The main difference between this aircraft and a KC-767 is the additional refueling and electronics technologies added to the plane at a separate facility at Boeing.

The KC-46 can carry 212,000 pounds of fuel — a 10% increase compared to the KC-135 — of which about 208,000 pounds are transferrable. It can carry 65,000 pounds of cargo in 18 different pallet positions. The maximum weight the plane is able to carry during takeoff is 415,000 pounds. Range-wise, the plane can reach any point in the globe due to aerial refueling, but on a single tank it can fly 6,385 nautical miles. The maximum height it can reach is 40,100 feet.

The jet tanker has multiple refueling systems: a probe and drogue refueling system, as well as a boom and receptacle system allowing for a variety of refueling missions to be executed in a single operation. A change from previously operated boom and receptacle systems is that, instead of utilizing a “boom pod,” which provides visual line-of-sight, the Pegasus will use a 3D video system for control.

The plane is able to refuel three different types of aircraft simultaneously due to its fuel transfer system. It is also capable of conducting limited electronic warfare, and has protection against heat-seeking missiles with a radar warning receiver as standard. The AN/ALR-69A(V) Radar Warning Receiver is provided by Raytheon, and the AN/AAQ-24(V) Directional Infrared Countermeasure system is provided by Northrop Grumman.

KC-46 Future Operations

Initial operations will begin at McConnell Air Force Base in Wichita, Kansas, where 36 tankers are expected to be based next year. As the fleet grows, the number of worldwide bases that will host the aircraft is expected to increase to 10. Training for the crew has already begun at Altus Air Force Base located in Oklahoma.

The KC-46 so far has found only one foreign customer. Japan’s military has ordered three aircraft for delivery in 2020, at a unit cost of $173 million. The plane was bid for two other contracts (Polish and Korean Air Force), but lost both times to the Airbus A330 MRTT.

Air India Hopes The 787 Flies Its Way Out Of Debt

The Boeing 787 is as critical for Air India as the bank itself. The Boeing aircraft in its fleet carries its many passengers as super-efficient cash register. Air India recently pleaded its case for another 4,270 R's Crore or 1 Rs equals a 157,000 dollars US.  A loan of about 670 million as a US Dollar value is needed for Air India. What it will do is bridge Air India debt status until it actually reaches a profit status. 

Low fuel prices, 787's and an efficient management scheme is the promise for loan payback and airline profitability. What underlies such a loan is Air India's' competence for running an airline. They must also it is capable of keeping its aircraft on schedule and on time. This would include passing complaints onto Boeing's money making product. 

Winging IT has long observed Air India propensity for a high number of mechanical mishap for its 21-787 fleet. It was quick to report another 787 problem was encountered. In spite of the reactionary posing, Air India is making money with its 787 fleet and is a key component of the "pending and final" bridge loan until profits flow.

The pending Rs Crore 4,270 loan, is a price equaling the cost of about 3.2 787's on order. The $670 million in US dollars loan, can sew up all Air India deficiencies and allows the 21 in service 787's for operating and mopping up profits and cash for purchasing the remaining 787's on the Air India order book. 

Air India is seeking this opportunity of becoming the leading player in the sub-continent as other world airlines continue circling the continent for an incursion.

Much Like A New Boeing Aircraft Type DDG1000 Has its Trials

Often the aviation crowd continuously reports the glitching on a new aircraft design such as the 787 during its tests flight. There are a myriad of issues in every new design concept during flight testing. Going from the computer to the air is a quantum leap of faith it will all work in flight. Rarely does a perfect flight occur without some notes taken about changes needed for a new airframe airborne.

The DDG-1000, Zumwalt, is no different than a new airplane testing program even like the 777X program which has not flown as of this date. The 777X still remains on the CAD machines in the design shop, awaiting first assembly and first flight. Even though a design freeze is imposed, tweaking on the blueprints continue even after first delivery. The 777X concept is frozen. However, the DDG-1000 is further along than the 777X program. 

DDG 1000 On Track For Delivery In April

The destroyer has entered its "flight testing" phase called, "Sea Trials". In Spite of all due diligence administered during its build, no one really knew what the ship will do! It may sink in rough seas as analogous with aircraft crashing during a flight testing phase.

“There were some lessons learned,” he said in a speech at the Surface Navy Association’s national symposium. “There were some things we need to go work on, but nothing that we can't overcome will prevent us from delivering that ship by 25 April of this year. We've got work to do, a lot of coordination, a lot of teamwork to get that done."

Not to worry, Captain James Kirk is at the "Helm" well at least on the operations deck.

After delivery, the Zumwalt will be turned over to Capt. James Kirk and his crew for training and qualification, Gale said. The commissioning of the ship is tentatively scheduled for October in Baltimore, Md.

The ship has its quirks no pun intended. The quirkiness is what Bath Iron Works people are straightening out before the April delivery date. Does it respond well at full speed full rudder angle? Important questions are tested as it tries having its way in heavy seas. The destroyer was tested out on ten foot swells and did well. Now on for the thirty footers, when the Zumwalt puts out to sea during a bad "Nor'easter". The Zumwalt may have to wait before that happens. If you have a multi-billion dollar ship do you really want to risk it in a gale? The answer is simple, yes they need a big storm, because it's better to know if it survives before you build ten more of its type (two more are scheduled).

"We saw eight to 10 foot seas,” he said. "The ship performed extremely well. We ran up full power and full rudder swings, 35 degree of rudder swings in each direction."

System tests are conducted much like the KC-46 tanker had just completed in 2015. The electrical component of the ship, is as massive as in small town electrical grid, but contained in a relatively small room. The ship Becomes dead in the water and a big fat un-defendable target without the "Electrical Power". The conventional thought on this matter, "the generation of power is deep in the ship and combat protected". If some weapon reaches the power plant the ship would probably sink at that point due to massive structural damage. In other words, it’s substantially protected. The real danger is the risk of critical internal system failures as the bigger weakness. Without the systems functioning, it's a battle dead ship. However, it could maintain speed without some systems not operating. 

Therefore, systems testing is imperative for successful results and made battle ready.

First "real time" unscheduled rescue operation a success:

"We steamed over there at full plant, got some good data on an unplanned two-hour power ride, and we launched our RIB,” he said. “It was 12 minutes from the launch of the RIB until they got to the vessel, got the person aboard and got back."

The Captain Speaks:

Kirk, who was present for the briefing, said the ship “handled marvelously,” comparing the difference in steering a DDG-1000 and DDG-51 as being similar to driving a smaller sedan versus a larger one.

The DDG-1000 can really fly through water, shoot, and defend like no other ship made during this period in naval history. Even since the Dreadnought revolution of over a hundred years ago, this ship needs to be in the US Navy. 

A Very Important Deal For Boeing

Regional airplane warfare is a big deal. Having an anchor order in a region is a bigger deal. Boeing is on the cusp of such an order with PAL (look-up PAL like you know something). The Philippine Airlines who have two players on the edge are just where they want its bidders. Either PAL will tilt in favor of Airbus or Boeing for a half dozen WB's ordered. They are pausing in its decision. PAL knows what it is going to do, but a "pause" as a subtitle of this picture uses a defining study excuse, and makes the manufacturers both nervous. Once signed on a manufacturer wins some valuable turf. A Southeast Asia follow-on order situation would follow, and a fleet requiring the commonality of future type orders from the same manufacturer is the PAL game afoot. 

Boeing could be played at this point also giving Airbus fits on pricing schemes it would have to offer PAL. This order is not about wide bodies it's about PAL leverage.

PAL set to sign $1-b deal for 6 long-range planes

“We’ll make the announcement when we sign the purchase agreement,” he said.  Bautista did not identify the aircraft manufacturer, but he earlier said the company was looking at either Airbus 350 or Boeing 787 Dreamliner. 

Bautista said the purchase contract would amount to about $1 billion, consisting of six long-range, twin-engine wide-body jets, aircraft parts and support equipment.  

“It’s an ultra-long-range aircraft that can fly non-stop from Manila to New York. The airplane can be used to other destinations also,” Bautista said. 

As you can see the tease gauntlet has been thrown down to the manufacturer and "the airline knows" the answer. However, it pauses for more airline bling thrown-in, playing one against the other. The pure order line-up of types by Boeing could suggest a win here as the 787-9 is in the middle of the mix, and also having earlier delivery slots confounding Airbus. This could also give Boeing an advantage for a later 777X order, if this order swings Boeing's way. PAL's heady and important thoughts for the future purchases sets this table.

However, it was tipped from an observation about PAL, and through its pondering for a 787 order type mention against the A350-900 order, the purchase for the six WB's is the lever. Pricing by Airbus and a slow startup of its A350 build rate could swing the gate towards a Boeing order. Then comes the commonality anchor for future types coming into the fleet.

PAL Fleet Cross Roads

So here is the story behind the order is the PAL chart above dominated by Airbus Single Aisles. A possible Boeing/PAL fleet set back for Airbus is where an Airbus price may not matter. Boeing needs the 787 as a win for future Max orders, as it has no single aisle active in the PAL fleet. Boeing may drop a "lost leader" price or provide a 787-9 lowball offering for the airline. If PAL "does take" the Boeing offer, expect a PAL fleet renewal within a few years where Boeing gives PAL a deal it can't refuse concerning single aisle MAX aircraft. 

The 777 and 787 become key in this deal making for the next PAL prize for any single aisles Boeing orders by 2020 flying the Southeast asia region. It's not about six WB's, it's about building a modern PAL fleet family, at the lowest cost.

Boeing is Doing A Big Year In 2016

Jack Black did "A Big Year" by spotting so many birds in so many ways, watch it you will enjoy it. Now Boeing is going to do A Big Year in 2016. Much like the movie "Big Year", no one admits they going after the most airplanes in a year. Boeing is going to do its "Big Year" after capturing 762 airplanes delivered in 2015. They will go for more builds in a silent non-admitting way of saying, "Nope I'm not doing it." Owen Wilson was left forlorn seeking his passion in the movie and loses his wife. Steve Martin finds his new mojo and Jack Black gains back his father’s love. It was a Big Year for the Birds. 

Jack Black Goes Big And Wins his Dad's Love

Boeing will go Big in 2016 with more birds than Airbus can even find in all of Europe. Production and sales will keep at a 1+:1 sales/production ratio as it did in 2015. However, there are a few more surprises in store for the fawning of public investors. The cash cow Boeing generates will enhance future development, pleasing the investor. Look to see Boeing crank in some more wide body orders as potential customers who mulled over the $30 a barrel oil market and says it’s time to place the 787 orders in some quantity. The ratio should go north of 1:1 by two hundred more aircraft than found in 2015, making the Boeing 2016 book coming in closer to a thousand orders than 800, and producing closer to 800 than 750.

World's Largest is.... Boeing (Evening Edition Late Nite is in)

Both in number manufactured and dollar value Boeing reigns Supreme. Here is the tale of the Ticker-Tape.

Or just let me tell you, what all this means? In spite of what Airbus sells, they can't shove them out the door as fast as Boeing is capable of doing. All the selling without increased production will quagmire Airbus customers into a bigger pit of the desperate wait.  Boeing is arriving into the five year happy place for its customers. Airbus will either have to give the sales team a near term furlough or build more capacity which will take another few years to do so.

The five year happy place is the customer's five years plans for fleet expansion and renewal. What if all those Airbus orders puts its customers “Seven Years Out Waiting ”, while they are experiencing a climatic wait-hold period, and an airline's fortunes take a dip when having a huge Airbus backlog. Those my friends, are called cancellations on the Airbus order book. Recession cycles run about every seven years. Since 2008, the world is due another recession.

Not to worry, Airbus single aisle division claims a 60 per month pacing by the end of 2016 for its A320 family. However, as eager as Airbus is about its A350 program it will be another three years of production before it may reach a capacity of ten a month. 

Boeing is already at 12-787's a month production and will soon go to 14. Boeing can stay ahead of Airbus as the World's largest manufacturer until 2019. However, Boeing is not standing on its current production laurels as it will increase its own capacity at all production sites, it currently operates. Both the Everett and Charleston has room for growth without Boeing hesitation.

                        Boeing                                                                Airbus                                                                    

Let's opine on the above head to head charts for Boeing and Airbus. Winging It, used the standard price listings from a reputable source whose business is to report and advise on such price listings to the aviation industry.  Sources can be disclosed upon request, 

Aircraft Compare

But it is consistent that price listings come from the same source so no argument can exist for slanting data in Boeing's favor. If indeed these list prices do not meet your understanding, such as using a Wiki source, then you must concur these prices are consistently approximate from the same neutral source.

• Boeing collected monies to the tune of $111.5 billion dollars for its 762 aircraft delivered.

• Airbus collected monies to the tune of $85.760 billion dollars for its 635 aircraft delivered.

Boeing beat Airbus by 127 Aircraft and then collected about $25.816 billion more dollars than what Airbus could do. Look at wide body and single aisle analysis for a better understanding who's doing what to whom.

Flight ANA Goes Fishing And Catches A Fare with Vietnam Airlines?

The significance of ANA buying into Vietnam Airlines (VA) incredibly enhances Boeing's chance of selling more Dreamliners. Since Vietnam Airlines already has a strong order book for wide body assortment of aircraft, it buys both Airbus and Boeing in a hefty supply for a smaller carrier, Vietnam Airlines may tilt further in Boeing's direction. Currently, Vietnam shows eight 787-9 Booked, but has more optioned, greater than the sum of the Airbus A350's on the order list.

Vietnam Airlines looks to sellshares to foreign investor soon

Vietnam Airlines will gain ANA spinoff expertise in managing its fleet from the ground up, as it now has just introduced the 787-9 to its fleet. The ANA share power going into Vietnam will certainly influence the future of VA's decision-making. This move strengthens VA's footprint in Southeast Asia.

Least We Not Forget The 777X

I didn't forget about the 777X, its folding wing and plastic to boot. The winter is long, but not that long. I can hardly wait to pull the wrapper off the 777X during 2016. First things first is the wing fold. They (military) did it every day for almost for seventy-five years. It's nothing new and it has never been tried before in commercial aviation. Why, nobody knows they (Boeing) havn't tried it? Its time has finally come and it’s about time. A simple fold will add twenty-four feet to a magnificent albatross like 777X wings that people will actually pay money to see while in flight. Did I mention I can't wait already? Yeah well you know about excitement the people had who flew in World War II from the then miniscule flat tops.

The design is Patented (Boeing), and added to the World's Largest twin engine passenger Jet at Boeing, the 777X.

 

If Boeing has the wing, they need a plant for which to build the "all plastic wing", so the concept won't come unhinged. Therefore, they built the huge plant for building the plastic folding wing.

In 2016 Boeing will start the 777X building process in a series of rather large steps. Boeing has mapped the steps from autoclaves, buildings, and 787 like advanced technology. Even though the 777X won't emulate the 787 in all aspects, it will borrow deeply from the paid for (well almost paid for $30 Billion pit) 787 technology for appropriate application on the 777X. A drop-off from the 787 designs to the 777X techno design occurs by not including an all-electric system core Boeing had exploited earlier with the 787, but will incorporate 787 like windows and tinting. Rumor has it that the window shade people are close to perfecting a total blackout window which some flying customers insist on having. These could and should show up on the 777X.

The 777X importance is found during 2016, since design freeze has happened and the wing plant is huge. The sum of all Boeing's accomplishment is packed into the 777X. I am excited.

Boeing Once Again World's Largest Airplane Manufacturor

The grand Total is 762 Airplanes "delivered", making them once again world's largest producer of aircraft. So it begins:

Aircap-Recap 2015

Let's do this by type delivered.

 Type               # Delivered

737's/BBJ all types: 495

747's all types:         18

767's all types:         16

777-300ER:              79

777-300F:                19

787-800:                 71

787-900:                 64

----------------------------           

Total:                     762


Book Price recap: does not include actual price Boeing has received during a sale. Since, Boeing's price is often discounted on bulk sales, or price increased during a customization of any aircraft, hence changing the actual sale price. Therefore the book price is used as a guidance number only until final accounting numbers are reported.

Boeing's Gross 2015: Sales

The Boeing Recaps

787 Family-2015 Gross Orders

737 Max

737 NG

747-F

767-F

777-300ER and 777X

777-300-F

Note:

There are 10 orders not listed in the above subsets as Boeing announces 878 total orders where Winging found only 869 orders from Boeing Charts. I have accounted for 8 unidentified 737's not included in the above charts. Two others are unaccounted for making up my 10 missing orders.

2015 Grand Total Gross Units Sold: 878 of all types before adjustments.

The Net effect comes from cancellations or prior orders having book changes from one model to another, therefore making a -110 adjustment during 2015. This is applied to the Boeing book account netting 768 aircraft total slotted for production, and entering the Boeing Backlog.

Accounting exponentially smooths 787 Ride To Profitability

Math majors and coffee cup geeks seek a smoother answer for 787 profitability, if you develop an extremely risky product like the 787. Boeing kept pouring $Billions at it before delivery and $Billions more after delivery, until it becomes a successful product from the design and development aspect. 

However, there is the financial stream remaining which is equally daunting, as it shadows the project. The 787 program expects a $33 Billion hole before accounting can get its arms around the 787 where it becomes pleasing for investors. In essence, Boeing has a real profit for the program when its $33 Billion money pit is filled.

Accountants like straight lines on graphs, as a lumpy program cost from start-up graphing is to be avoided. The lines must look uniform and organized. The 787 expenditures for its research and development during the 787 program had no known limits, other than it had a ceiling under some company breaking point. Did the 787 program break Boeing's financial back? The answer is "no" for that question. However combined with other successful Boeing programs it was saved with a Boeing holistic profitability margin. The sum of all its parts came to the rescue for the 787 program. Enough time and resources were available to get the 787 financial pig going in a straight line. When Boeing builds about 1,300 787's, it makes money from the start of the program to this point. Additionally, during this time, the 787 reaches beyond a pure breakeven point without footnotes and sunk cost set-aside on current accounting. It will be paid for straight -up!

Motley Fool has come forward with this 787 Financial Assessment

Quoting them is better definition for those who drink copious amounts of coffee in the morning, and for those who like neat and tidy lines on graphs smoothing out personal problems of a messy slope. Mathematically, the 787 $33 Billion money pit is filled in by the 1,300th 787 delivered.

"Boeing initially set the 787 accounting block at 1,100 units when it began deliveries in 2011. It increased the accounting block to 1,300 in late 2013. Essentially, this means that after 787 production becomes cash positive later this year, Boeing expects to recoup the $33 billion in deferred costs over the rest of the 1,300 unit 787 accounting block. That will be roughly 850 planes."

For a cogent look at Boeing's financial accounting dynamics summarized, I would rely on Motley Fool's assessment as a snapshot in time using Boeing's variables driving the Fool's outlook. In other words it’s a point in time looking forward with all things considered.

"Thus, Boeing expects an average cash profit of nearly $40 million on the last 850 Dreamliners in the accounting block. And since production costs will be declining steadily, the last few hundred could be even more profitable, bringing in perhaps $50 million each."

The best conclusion anyone draws from this, is that Boeing has retired enough risk on the 787 program. The accountants now have free reign for formulating straight lines on the graphs through exponential smoothing, while painting over the lumpy curves of cost on said graph. By a 787 unit #1,300, it becomes midnight and all is well in building 40-24, and a straight line is painted in Chicago. 

Boeing has delivered 363 787's. Boeing has already Booked 1,143 787. They will need selling 157 more 787's before reaching its accounting block of 1,300 booked. At the rate of 135 787's a year delivered, Boeing has  about six years for accomplishing selling 157 more 787’s or 1,300 787's booked. Reaching seven years out allows Boeing to deliver them build and pay back the money pit in total.

Evening Addition: Boeing repose

Every day comes a new chapter with the Boeing /Airbus fight. Rather than ruminating on the two giants, it is better that one sits back in a repose and ponder the greater issues of what is best for the passenger. The real danger lies before the passenger is riding in equipment not ready for prime time rather than buying the next best thing. Fortunately both giant manufacturers, and of a bevy of other single aisle makers are constrained by a due process of vetting new aircraft safely.

No recently made aircraft introduced in this decade has crashed, such as the 787 or A350 to be certain. Many things go wrong during daily operations for any aircraft type. Air India is supported by a robust press who likes to dedicate its full page for 787 reporting when a Dreamliner experiences another maintenance code for replacing a part. Those instances of flagging maintenances issues were announced to those seated in seats as an bull over the PA system, "stating the maintenance is changing out a flap actuator or the computer has identified a fault which will take 45 minutes to resolve". However this goes to press in India too often.

Evidently those days are gone and everything 787 is a news flash in India's skies. A two hour delay is the headline. A twenty hour delay waiting for a part and an installation by qualified 787 techs is the world wide news. What has happened to air travel where the complexity of every aircraft currently built takes an overhaul of said system before departing? The things that are saving customers are now the things that make us impatient when traveling.

This is a warning, travel will always remain a risk and will always encounter an uncertain nature when continuation on a journey starts. The 787 is no different than any other classic airplane flying before it, and it is not news any longer having a 787 on stand-by until it meets a flyable status. The high tech of 787 governance found internally is terrific, as it is monitoring millions of parts, and potential 787 issues during operation. If a line of code detects the 787 needs attention somewhere, it becomes a headline in India. They should report more on its economy than routine issues found on the 787.

Since there are only about 300 787's flying at any moment, it is a small portion of aircraft in the air compared with all others types in service. I have been delayed in Tucson to Seattle, and switched to another airplane type entirely, without even a nary mention from any news source for what problem had occured after having passengers switching out from a scheduled flight. Not so for the 787, since it is front and center for everything glitching. Airplane faults makes the papers every time. Thus making the passengers always more edgy. 

The millions of lines of code, makes the aircraft download data each day during a monitoring cycle has made the 787 just plain safe, and has not the travel nemesis the all India news dwells on and on concerning the 787. The airplane has carried hundreds of millions of passengers and Billions and Billions of miles. Is it clear to everyone that knowing everything about everything 787, is the reason that is keeping it out of harm's way in a big way? The 787 maybe the first airplane to never experience a hull loss due to its own mishaps or failures. 

PS: The Vietnam Airlines A350 has been grounded in Paris for two days because something went glitchy. You find it in the headlines!

ANA is Moving To Buy A380

Japan is high density as any part of the world's mega population. It stands reason an airline who has courted Boeing for so many years would dabble with the A380 as a stop gap-loosening for its high density routes within ANA's reach.

The purported pending order is for three giant A380s. Airport congestion is in play for ANA. One A380 airport slot can eliminate having several airport slots for moving traffic. However, where will the A380's land. The US, Europe and Southeast Asia are the obvious destinations. The 747 is fading and the A380 is the newest design sinking over the 747-8i. The Boeing 747 aircraft just doesn't move enough people in and out of Haneda using only one airport slot. The 777-9X isn't ready nor does it have an immediate production slot for ANA's purchasing timing for having a quantity people mover other than heir apparent A380.

Not saying that A380 is a superior aircraft over the Boeing suite of aircraft, but it is an option for meeting current needs and growth plans for ANA. Ordering three A380's solves several issues in a one type buy where current Boeing types could cover those ANA issues. As mentioned at the top, ANA needs a congestion buster even as the A380 is also a congestion maker on the ground. ANA is keeping an airport slot while moving 550 passengers in and out using its current available Haneda positions makes some sense. Even though the A380 will congest the airport landing 550 people at one gate, where it then becomes an airport problem not a ANA problem.

Grasping at straws is a strategy. The Airbus A380 ANA grasp goes only so far in a fleet family. I would be concerned for Boeing if they ordered as many as Qantas did before they discovered another way, and started buying 787-9's as part of its flexible move in the market. The operational inflexibility of the A380 is a stop gap measure for relieving only one part of ANA's airline's problems when moving passengers.  

The Big IF for Boeing

The single aisle wars took a turn against Boeing during 2015, the A320-321NEO outgunned the 737 MAX during the year. That wasn't supposed to happen and even Boeing aficionados are left wondering what happened. An analysis has started by Boeing on what to expect next year, and what's going on where they didn't shrink the Airbus lead over the MAX. Before any bridge jumping starts by Boeing execs, let's us try to spin an answer.

• The big picture is the very big picture, is a solace in any industry
• The lead in the market is something first places loses not what second place takes.
• 2014 spent Boeing energy dampening 2015's potential
• Is the Max really the MAX
• Let's see what 2016 does before resigning and base jumping from buildings without a plan

Starting with the big picture point, it’s a marathon not a sprint kind of approach allows for off segments of time. Boeing hit the hill a little later than Airbus in this race, as Airbus was sprinting downhill on the course. Is this notion an imaginary hopefulness of wishful thinking on Boeing's part or is Airbus turning a positive corner for its single aisle going way beyond Boeing's own expectation?

The answer is so complex where "time" shakes out the truth on the matter. The Winging It take: is about the A320NEO entry into service during January 2016 causing a market ordering flurry in 2015. Emboldened purchasing by more Airbus customers and some new Airbus customers, and adding orders during the 2015 line-up? 

Otherwise getting in-line sooner rather than later, while amping up orders for the NEO before its entry into service arrived. 

In summary, a trickle down impact occurred for Airbus, as the entry into service factor joined the market. The Max is now facing a order saturation with the market sponge before its own entry into service arrives. The Max will increase its sales during its moment of entry, but will have less market absorption room because the NEO was first to enter service.  

However, the other take is the Airbus NEO was a better deal for the customer. The big picture numerator over the time denominator will say who is right on this matter.

Having a lead in time and space remains up to second place to take away from the first one out with the single aisle announcement. The 787 vs A350 battle proves there is merit with this assumption. Boeing jumped first with an all new plastic concept of the unproven wide body. It now maintains a lead over Airbus by a significant margin as its lead is 1,142 to Airbus' 775 booked, as both wide bodies are flying, Airbus struggles to catch Boeing. 

In the A320NEO case this is true when comparing with the MAX. The Airbus announcement head start will carry for a decade its first place position, and before any reasonable analysis can conclude a meaningful outcome.

In 2014 Boeing ramped up closing on orders suspended by customer hesitations. Now 2015 came and went with order potential already spent. Boeing knew this at the beginning of 2015, as it forecast sales for only 755 units will be sold per guidance. The year 2016 will be an interesting wild card year for Boeing guidance, and should be adhered to by investors. If the bigger picture plays out in Boeing's favor, then 2016 will reflex the order book in a snappy way often found when letting go of a stretched-out rubber band. It will spring back with a solid 2016 order book yet to be disclosed.

The spring back includes the MAX being everything Boeing purports it to be, a better aircraft than the NEO version in the single aisle market. When its flight testing begins there maybe two different scenarios Boeing will play. 

The MAX is fantastic, or the MAX meets Boeing's expectation. 

Anything short exclaiming a "Fantastic" report means a long road to market relevance. The market expectation was already set by the NEO even before the 737 Max was announced. If the MAX becomes the real MAX envisioned, then Boeing has a winner making a lot of "should of", "would of", and "Could of" customers, who ordered the A320NEO, blush. I believe the MAX is the MAX and Boeing has a winner eventually flipping single aisle back into Boeing's favor by 2020.

Boeing will have a "No Building Base Jumping" year. The orders for Boeing for 2016 and the over-ordering for Airbus during 2015 will correct the current balance difference, significantly. Boeing will go 1,000 plus orders as the MAX approaches first flight in 2016, and the 787 goes sub "A350 backlog" during first part of 2016, and then goes back up above A350 Backlog from its robust production and order pacing. The 767 finds more freight calls with UPS and others. The orders come from market pressure out of many different ways and means. 

The "Big IF" in most break room conversations regarding 2015, will disappear into comments about how did Boeing do that during 2016?

Remembering Back Two Years

In 2014 I wrote about myself in a remarkable tale. This is why I write the blog. I have matched aviation passion with a will to recover to a former self. The carrot on the stick is about aviation technology, finance and big things. Not all of it is about Boeing, some of it is about pet interests regarding military procurement of advanced technologies, flight and big things.

What I said in 2014 on the 200th blog of the year

Truly a miracle I'm still here and it hasn't been easy to stay with it. I have had multiple events on my heart and with my health. God willing I will keep writing until I become MIA on Winging It. May all of you who follow, and read Winging It, have a prosperous and joyful New Year. Please link back to 2014 and read my state of mind at that time and my recollections about surviving. 

2015 stats: 294 blog articles written in 2015, 782 blogs articles written since 2012.  My goal is to hit a cumulative total of 1,000 blogs during 2016. It's only 218 additions away. I can do it, and do it better.

The Start of 2016 Needs a Look Forward

The usual commentary at years end reflects on what happened to change our lives during 2015. This approach on Winging It, uses what’s going to happen in 2016 when comes to aviation giant Boeing.

MOM is the code word for 2016. MOM is the "Middle of the Market”. Boeing will address the middle of the market. Had Boeing a MOM replacement for its 757, then they could have shared with Airbus A321 NEO already having over 1,000 single aisle sales, before its entry into to service. Since Boeing played the 737 Max card it gained only 219 units sold for its 737-900 Max. Boeing will go plastic and metal making a MOM coming home from the holiday's reality. It has to parry and thrust against the A321 NEO. Only it has to go dual aisle in a muted 787 design motif for the parry. The thrust comes from its new engine technology. It’s what the 787-300 was supposed to be in the first place. However, the 787-300 was swept up by a heady 787-8 moment and discarded.

Winging IT has already predicted a dual aisle seven seats across design hold up to 220 passengers. It’s a way to stop the wagging tongues from Toulouse, and a chance to regain the MOM market cleaned up by the A321 NEO. Boeing was hog tied with too many programs running at one time, during its resurging remake of the Commercial division. Yes, 2016 has to be the year of the MOM announcement, or it will become too little too late.

It shouldn’t be an overwhelming effort building the enhanced 757 concept into a one off airplane from both the 737 Max and the 787-8 emergence. The new MOM will stop the bleeding between the single and dual aisle crater formed by both framers. A MOM would beat the A321 NEO, and it would surge into the gap, having a little bit for everyone concept: starting with the flying public. What would it offer the world market?

• Customer Roominess    
• Airline efficiency with superior turn-around time at the airport.     
• All things 787 in a MOM class      
• All things 737 in an airport fit
• Extended range over the single aisle class
• All things Boeing starting with new diameter engines.
• Laminar flow technology
• A new wing superseding the Airbus Popsicle stick design.
• A phenomenal offload/load cycle
• Electronic windows and so forth.

The boss in command will sign the build proposal saying #2 make it so. Or could Sean Connery step in from his "Red October Sub" and command, “make revolutions for 30 knots”. Boeing has positioned itself for this moment and if it sits on its hands without making any MOM announcement during 2016, then the Corporation biffs it big. The MOM is the missing link needed for selling more MAX and 787-8’s. It’s not how many MOM’s it must sell to make it work, it’s about having a MOM for selling how many more 737’s and 787’s.