The A380 Can't Be Everywhere At Once

A report just came out from Oceania (Australia-New Zealand) depicting the A380 weakness. It can't be everywhere at the same time. The second problem, it needs a huge draw on the passenger well to make it a reasonable option, Oceania does not have that deep of a passenger well. In fact the A380 may have a business case for high density routes for under 3,000 miles. A shocking pronouncement but one for consideration.

Boeing forecasts 950 new aircraft for Oceania over next 20 years

Australian Aviation Graphic

The wedge that Boeing built in all of Oceania is with Qantas and Air New Zealand. The numbers graphed above from Australianaviation.com.au. 

Boeing marketing chief, Randy Tinseth, keeps a conservative acknowledgement over these numbers even though he must be thinking Boeing owns the Oceania market space.

The 787-9 is quietly booting out the A330 in the Qantas flight line. Boeing has captured first orders for 787-9's with Air New Zealand. The worry or conservative nature is over the single aisle market and how it will play out for Boeing. Boeing shows some single aisle dominance in this area.

Qantas Fleet

Aircraft	In Service	Orders	Options	Purchase Rights	Passengers					Notes
					F	J	W	Y	Total
Airbus A330-200	18	—	—	—	—	36	—	199	235[83]	International to be refurbished
					—	28	—	243	271[84]	Domestic refurbished
					—	36	—	265	301[85]	To be refurbished
					—	36	—	268	304[86]
Airbus A330-300	10	—	—	—	—	30	—	267	297[87]	To be refurbished
					—	28	—	269	297[88]	Refurbished
Airbus A380-800	12	8[89]	4	—	14	64	35	371	484[90]	Last 8 orders postponed[89]
Boeing 737-800	67	—	8	—	—	12	—	156	168[91][92]	To be refurbished
					—	12	—	162	174[93]	Refurbished
Boeing 747-400	5	—	—	—	14	52	32	255	353[94]	To be retired by 2020 [82]
					—	58	36	270	364[95]
Boeing 747-400ER	6	—	—	—	—	58	36	270	364[96]
Boeing 787-9	—	8	15	30	TBA					To replace 5 Boeing 747-400 from 2017; 15 options and a further 30 purchase rights.[97]
Total	118	16	27	30

Air New Zealand has a similar story for Boeing. However the Single aisle for Air New Zealand is dominated by the A320 family with 15 booked A320-1NEO or classic version undetermined.

A Boeing Max order for Air New Zealand would demonstrate a pivot towards a complete Boeing family for Boeing.

Air New Zealand mainline fleet as at 8 February 2016^[2][74]

Aircraft	In Service		Orders	Passengers					Notes
	Number	Layout		J	P	S	Y	Total
Airbus A320-200	28	15	2	—	—	—	171	171	Launch customer of the sharklet A320 Domestic version
		13	—				168	168	International version Replacement: A320/21neo
Airbus A320neo	—		13	—					Replacing international A320-200. Deliveries 2017-2019. Exact A320/A321 mix undetermined; at least three will be A321.[75]
Airbus A321neo	—
Boeing 767-300ER	5		—	24	—	—	206	230	Retirement: From 2016 Replacement: Boeing 787-9
Boeing 777-200ER	8		—	26	40	54	192	312	All aircraft refurbished with new cabin interior, entertainment systems and Economy (with Economy Skycouch), Premium Economy and Business Premier seating.
Boeing 777-300ER	7		—	44	44	60	184	332
Boeing 787-9	6		6 [76]	18	21	42	221	302	Launch customer
Total	54		20