Monday, February 1, 2016

737 Production Gap Take II

The Max is coming no doubt, but can Boeing sustain a high rate of NG delivery in the meantime? The article linked below opens multiple questions about the progress on the 737 Max program chugging forward. The Airbus A320 counterpart took 14 months to reach delivery fruition. Many variables are still in play, are more NG orders added before the Max can rollout? All things considered, and everything staying the same, the below article makes a salient point:  

Image result for 737 NG Production

Photo Credit: Airline Reporter

The Winging It take: About finding the center spot somewhere between one extreme from the other extreme. Flight Global has gone logical on this topic, and it makes it much more difficult to be contrarian to its assessment. An introduction of more orders finds reasonable middle ground whether if, Boeing can fill the gap for a continuous stream of 737 NG's until the Max arrives is at hand.

The NG has the year 2016 remaining for solving this problem of not having a continuous production flow and having no gaps. It is the same problem in the 777-300ER vs 777X problem. It saves Boeing on production costs if it can keep 777ER production going until the 777X is ready. 

Boeing will offer an attractive price for its 737 NG during 2016, as it attempts to close this obvious gap. It will only take about a couple hundred more NG orders during 2016 for achieving a production balance with both the 737 NG and then a 737 Max during 2017.