Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Randy Tinseth All In For 737-9 (Updated *Data)

Even having a 5-1 lead over the 737-900 with the A321, Randy Tinseth insist on the 737-900 is here to stay. *Data below suggest a 60% to 40% market split with Airbus and Boeing A321 to 737-900 Max order numbers. It's a winner, having booked about 217 (now 418), 737-900 Max versions over-all. However, Airbus has booked 1,052 A321NEO. Randy is the chief Boeing instigator for All Things Boeing in the market place. What Randy knows is projected out in statements like, "We are very pleased with the 737-900 aircraft, it offers... and so forth".

Footnotes suggest otherwise as the A321NEO to 737-900 Max gap tightens.

So why is the competitive order nature for Boeing's 737-900 so diminished against the A321? The Airbus A321 lead of 1,052 to 217 (now 418) is the largest reason for its having a 4,500 to 3072 lead over Boeing when calculating the Max vs NEO total headcount.

Boeing stays with the 737-Max-900, because of other reasons than just "we are pleased".

·      Something "bigger" is coming from Boeing??
·      Airbus line-cut with the A321NEO.
·      Market starvation for a new single aisle solution reaches a heightened condition at the NEO announcement.
·      Boeing was caught giant killing wide bodies during the Single Aisle revamp window.
·      Boeing cannot pivot on the MAX until after its delivery starts.
·      Timing is everything in the aviation Market and Boeing lost that window before 2013.

A <<Better aircraft comparison>>is the 737 MAX over the A321NEO! After linking above with the comparison you will understand Mr. Tinseth position in full.

Boeing really lost the A321 market in 2013 when it came late to the order window for single aisle renovations. It was about 15 months late of the Airbus theft of the single aisle market. It could never recoup the Airbus lead when announcing the MAX so late when the window was opened. The Airbus single aisle margin happens to equal the A321NEO backlog lead over the 737-900 backlog. The 737-900 Max is the better aircraft, but it languishes behind the market out of its lateness coming to the order opportunity. Fifteen months is the difference as Boeing had its hands tied, slaying those wide body giants. 

Footnotes: Pdxlight Data

Good news for Boeing lies in the option counts where it leads Airbus by 1,121 B-options to 1074 A-options at this snapshot moment. The numbers have grown since this chart was last updated where Airbus now stands at 4471 for all A320NEO types having 1094 A321NEO ordered with 125, options.

The Max 900 appears to have about 418 of its type ordered (per wikidata) narrowing the A321 gap over the 737-900 Max.

Boeing Data with far right column data from Wikipedia

Wiki Data: NG Tally for the 737.

Final Chart: NG Queue

As of February 27, 2016: Subject to change upon new orders and completed deliveries.

Note: 737-900 began in 1997 with orders while the A321 started in 1993. The A321 had a four year lead over the 737-900 when it announced in 1997. The Airbus A321NEO was announced in 2012 causing  a 19 year churning for older models and ordering for the latest A321NEO in numbers. A strong consideration for Boeing's catch-up challenge when it announced the 737-900-MAX later during 2013. It is no wonder why the A320-321NEO order gap exists over the Max. The A321 was ready for fleet renewal in Airbus' fleet offering to its customers. Boeing only has an eight years of aging inventory churning up for its recently offered 737-900 Max.