It's always important foreseeing future trends based on current
and past efforts while making an assumption out of whole paper tissue.
Currently Boeing and Airbus has already made its 2015 statements representing
many months of activity and preparation. Airbus holds the order book advantage
going into December 2015. Boeing holds a few more calculated surprises which in no means will overtake the Airbus lead, but will demonstrate a market position in
both the wide body and narrow body markets.
The scorecard is important to Airbus as an arm of its marketing
scheme. They have achieved a draining of its order swamp this year going into
the end of 2015 with its 910 gross order book count.
It beats Boeing in count by a wide margin which has mustered 647
Boeing aircraft booked in a gross count way. The question becomes what does this all mean
in a snapshot.
Assumptions:
- Boeing drained
its order swamp in 2014
- Airbus pricing
is favorable with neutral leaning customers
- Boeing Wide body
has gained market separation over Airbus Wide body
- Airbus A320NEO
keeps on keeping on
- Boeing Max comes
in late after the single aisle market bubble ordering pops.
Just
looking at these few ideas about the Boeing order book is enough realization,
Boeing knew 2015 would softened its bookings, and not to worry about what
Airbus does in 2016. For them (Airbus) it will be tough to double down on its ordering
pace for two years in a row.
Boeing
has achieved a benchmark that Airbus doubted when the first A350 was delivered.
There should be no continuation of 787 order dominance. Airbus believes that
once the A350 was delivered it was game over for the 787. Not so fast my
friend! The 787-9 and 787-10 keeps up with orders while the A350 family of
orders has languished in 2015. Boeing takes in a net of 71 (97 gross) 787
orders in 2015 while Airbus only has seven (oops) A350 during the same period of time.
Those
numbers suggest a serious separation for competing programs. The Boeing
stretches out its order and delivery lead even though the A350 has put its best
foot forward with Qatar deliveries. The Arab state isn't drawing many
comparison between the two types of competitors it now owns. Being the Airbus A350
launch customer, you would think its own pride of choice would deem some
disheartening remark towards the 787 in its fleet, as positioned as the Premier Airbus A350 Launch
customer.
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