Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Did The China Order In Its "Suspense File" Come In For Boeing?

The unannounced order book has grown mysteriously in Boeing's case. Here are the numbers:

2015 Net Orders5632495871743

Air Austral----22
Air Tahiti Nui----22
AirBridgeCargo Airlines-2---2
Alaska Airlines6----6
All Nippon Airways5---38
Atlas Air, Inc-1---1
Australia P-84----4
BOC Aviation23----23
Business Jets / VIP Customer(s)6---28
COPA Airlines51----51
Delta Air Lines20----20
EL AL Israel Airlines----33
Enter Air Sp. z o.o.1----1
Ethiopian Airlines----66
Etihad Airways---2-2
EVA Air---71825
GOL Airlines9----9 Ltd30----30
Korean Air30--7-37
Oman Air (SAOC)20----20
Qatar Airways---14-14
Ruili Airlines30----30
Silk Way Airlines-3---3
SMBC Aviation Capital10----10
Sriwijaya Air2----2
Swiss Global Air Lines Ltd---3-3
TUI Travel PLC----11
Turkish Airlines10----10
Unidentified Customer(s)244--1536295
United Airlines---10-10
United States Navy9----9
Virgin Australia Airlines4----4
2015 Gross Orders6336495897843
2015 Net Orders5632495871743


Blue highlighted text in the chart above indicates updates for the current week.
Changes since last update: 166 new orders (Delta Air Lines for 20 737s, Jet Ltd for three 737s, and Unidentified Customer(s) for 143 737s).

One hundred and forty-three, unidentified 737's comes in near the China "omnibus" order mentioned earlier in the fall. It also speculated, wide body orders would be numbering in the 50's taking my estimation off track, since no mention of unidentified wide bodies even show up in the Boeing order updating. The order book may not reflect the China order at all. 

The seven hundred and forty three Boeing total net order count is year-to-date, and it comes in pairing within its initial guidance given at the first of 2015. Boeing proposed a 700-755 sales year would occur during 2015. I must admit, I factored a higher order count than this for its 787 program during 2015. It has occurred to me, Boeing still has an order moment up its sleeve (seven more days to go). Whether it's 2015 or 2016 is in the Boeing cards. 

The 787 has already achieved 71 787's ordered this year, but order book changes today does not include any China intent announced earlier in the year. Even not knowing who the 143-737's are going to, I suspect a China order is in play, with having wide bodies orders announced later next year. The other comment is that Boeing knows if it will build or assemble 737's in China at this time.

"China’s Boeing Order: China Business News November 27, 2015

Boeing, realizing how big the market for China is, has entered into an agreement with China for 300 airlines worth $38 billion at list price. Part of the general agreement includes 190 of the 737 aircraft and 50 of the wide body planes for the Chinese airlines. China is one of the biggest markets for Boeing, accounting for quarter of the deliveries this year."

At last the deal is done with China and the caveat is that Chinese participants announce when, what, and who the individual orders involve. Boeing may only reflect the announced identified portion of the larger China order in Suspense.