Monday, November 30, 2015

Home Again For The November Boeing Roundup

Being a road junkie makes me appreciate Home Again!!!

Here are the recaps which will be updated with commentary on the flip side of tomorrow.

One point of note on the above chart suggests the 126 787 delivered to date during 2015 is a spot on number where Boeing will exceed guidance during 2015 with its former 10 a month number project as it becomes an overly cautious investor count, and should be upped to a realistic 12 a month guidance. It must move to 140, 787 a year delivered for any realistic relevancy, or become another silly statistic we all must endure each month reflecting on just ten produced. The real deal is a mystery on how in 2016 will continue with the incorporation of the 787-10 project and how it will impact the production floor by end of 2016.

The insertion of the EVA 787-10 order for 18 of its type with 6 more in option- limbo gives the program a significant boost as an indicator the type is becoming a success story before first entry into service.

The moving average chart is a fundamental snapshot, validating the guidance over a three month period. Looking a consistent number of twelve units a month determines if Boeing can sustain its goals of moving ahead with a new guidance which should occur in a 2016 annual report. Despite the onset of the 787-10 program. Twelve is the Christmas number announced for the production count each month for its 2016 guidance.

The big chart above is what it’s all about. The 354 delivered to date is program success. 1,143 787 ordered smashes the Airbus' dream into a nightmare. The 787 family of aircraft has validated itself as the leading edge aircraft during the first part of the 21st century. 

The divide of program aircraft above indicates a plan coming together on pace as visioned. The 787-10 is the big prize in 2015. The EVA order for 18 is significant in multiple ways. One for program validation, two for competitive relevance, and three for program completeness. The WB competitor, Airbus has whiffed it! The A350 -800 is dead on arrival. The A350-1000 is still looking at a NEO card play long after the program was launched, and finally the venerable A350-900 meets the 777-8 &-9, making Airbus sputter out a "WTF" comment concerning Boeing's offering of superior performance. Please note the Boeing order year is not yet done.

The chart above counts the units chambered versus units fired out. The WIP raw numbers of 45 establishes a static range of about 45-50. Fifty would be plant capacity number, forty-five seems to be a plant efficiency WIP number. The current Boeing WIP of forty-five is the primer for 2016. Output is keeping up with supplier input. The cash flow mechanism for the 787 has become a fixed number flow during the time where it approached 790 not yet built.