Monday, February 29, 2016

The Boeing Wide Body Transition Confounds Airbus

As Airbus ponders a stretch A350-1100 (8000) offering, while it complains about how the 777-300ER sits in a sweet spot, and Boeing should not tamper with the 777-300ER presence, Airbus is really confounded. 

However, as remarkable as is, of Airbus' ponderings, it’s an actual omission that an Airbus A350-8000 would have a tough time getting traction in the market place. One assumption Airbus won't admit, Boeing isn't abandoning the 777-300ER at all. Boeing is only making a market growth alignment with its family of aircraft.

A practical reasoning suggest the 787-10 will replace any demand for the current 777-200 found within 90% of the world's market. The 787-9 will mop up the remaining market at the top end. The 777-300ER will remain a constant for the 320 seat market as value price. The 777-8X will fill a gap of Boeing's incomplete business segment, since the 777-300ER currently holds its place at the top end of dual aisle performers. 

The 777-9X is a mini Jumbo giant killer. The hesitation in Leahy's voice is found in his recent message about thinking of any A350-8000 stretch sounds more like, "we'll see about this next year at the next big Airshow". This at a time where the 777-9X is in a build mode rather than handled by some "Airbus Idea Guy (Leahy)" or it has room with its teams in Toulouse.

Airbus missed the 8000 (1100) bus all-together. Its own plant's capacity would only hope for a baker's two dozen for orders out of all its loyal customers while offering special deals to BA or Singapore. The carefully constructed Boeing reshuffle in its line-up has covered every wide-body gap, and also gives a synergistic flow from the 787-8 up to the 777-9X, blanketing the market range with some overlap to spare.

Leahy's opinion changing verbiage at ISTAT over the possibility of the A350-1100 is all sales maneuvering. Which only any a handful of Airbus devotees react with any kind of hopeful glee.

When the 777-9X first flight becomes a successful romp over Seattle, some ulcers will develop in Toulouse as Airbus forces up an announcement for a new A350-8000 coming from its vane pride. It may become another A350-800 ordeal when garnering only 50 orders from its initial customers.