Thursday, February 18, 2016

The A380 Can't Be Everywhere At Once

A report just came out from Oceania (Australia-New Zealand) depicting the A380 weakness. It can't be everywhere at the same time. The second problem, it needs a huge draw on the passenger well to make it a reasonable option, Oceania does not have that deep of a passenger well. In fact the A380 may have a business case for high density routes for under 3,000 miles. A shocking pronouncement but one for consideration.




Australian Aviation Graphic


The wedge that Boeing built in all of Oceania is with Qantas and Air New Zealand. The numbers graphed above from Australianaviation.com.au. 

Boeing marketing chief, Randy Tinseth, keeps a conservative acknowledgement over these numbers even though he must be thinking Boeing owns the Oceania market space.


The 787-9 is quietly booting out the A330 in the Qantas flight line. Boeing has captured first orders for 787-9's with Air New Zealand. The worry or conservative nature is over the single aisle market and how it will play out for Boeing. Boeing shows some single aisle dominance in this area.
Qantas Fleet
AircraftIn ServiceOrdersOptionsPurchase RightsPassengersNotes
FJWY
Total
Airbus A330-2001836199235[83]International to be refurbished
28243271[84]Domestic refurbished
36265301[85]To be refurbished
36268304[86]
Airbus A330-3001030267297[87]To be refurbished
28269297[88]Refurbished
Airbus A380-800128[89]4146435371484[90]Last 8 orders postponed[89]
Boeing 737-80067812156168[91][92]To be refurbished
12162174[93]Refurbished
Boeing 747-4005145232255353[94]To be retired by 2020 [82]
5836270364[95]
Boeing 747-400ER65836270364[96]
Boeing 787-981530
TBA
To replace 5 Boeing 747-400 from 2017; 15 options and a further 30 purchase rights.[97]
Total118162730


Air New Zealand has a similar story for Boeing. However the Single aisle for Air New Zealand is dominated by the A320 family with 15 booked A320-1NEO or classic version undetermined.

A Boeing Max order for Air New Zealand would demonstrate a pivot towards a complete Boeing family for Boeing.

Air New Zealand mainline fleet as at 8 February 2016[2][74]
AircraftIn ServiceOrdersPassengersNotes
NumberLayoutJPSYTotal
Airbus A320-2002815 2171171Launch customer of the sharklet A320
Domestic version
13 —168168International version
Replacement: A320/21neo
Airbus A320neo —13 —Replacing international A320-200. Deliveries 2017-2019.
Exact A320/A321 mix undetermined; at least three will be A321.[75]
Airbus A321neo —
Boeing 767-300ER524206230Retirement: From 2016
Replacement: Boeing 787-9
Boeing 777-200ER8 —264054192312All aircraft refurbished with new cabin interior, entertainment systems and Economy (with Economy Skycouch), Premium Economy and Business Premier seating.
Boeing 777-300ER7 —444460184332
Boeing 787-96[76]182142221302Launch customer
Total5420