Counting Airplane Orders Ain't For Sissies

The nebulous subject of counting airplane orders becomes a convoluted process at best. The press reports what it hears and in the world of semantics, what is said or indicated becomes a fill in the blank report by every writer of airplane orders. The key words and what it means is the first step in understanding of what happens at an airshow within an airplane maker’s venue. It is in its best interest, if it presents an order in the best possible light for bragging rights. In this case the Dubai Airshow is a good example to use for this discussion.

The Paris airshow is so long ago (June 2017) having many more customers ordering in play than Dubai had and so much has happened to those Paris orders. It becomes a nightmare explaining what has happened to those "orders" since the airshow. 

However, Dubai is much more manageable for this discussion. There were several major orders announced at the show. Specifically, the 40 Emirates 787-10, Avolon's 225 737 Max and finally Indigo Partners 430 units for the Airbus A-320 family of aircraft were announced.

The bantered around words were commitment, MOU and firm order. One headline stated Indigo Partner's placed the world largest order implying a firm deal. 

However, to avoid confusion for what occured, always refer to the Airplane makers own website listing those orders that are booked as firm orders. Airbus is making a mad dash with Indigo Partner's firming up those 430 A-320 NEO committed so it can add to its 2017 order counts.

The word "committed" is key in the reporting and it is not the same as ordering and is usually supported by some Letter of Intent (LOI). The back story of this announcement lists a handful of airlines that will be receiving these committed 430 aircraft. Within the announcement it is discovered the following airlines are customers of Indigo Partners for:

• ·       Wizz -       72  A320neo, 74 A321neo
• ·       Frontier - 100 A320neo, 34 A321neo
• ·       JetSMART -56 A320neo, 14 A321neo
• ·       Volaris -    46 A320neo, 34 A321neo

The total units come to 430 NEO's as mentioned. Indigo Partners negotiates with its airline customers and then negotiates with Airbus for these committed aircraft. It isn't a firm deal yet! It may have an LOI supporting the potential deal. Under ideal conditions it should go through. The affected parties have been working a long time to get to this point. Mark down that an LOI is a commitment with no contract yet signed, therefore the 430 NEO's aren't booked until Airbus reports the order contract and is signed and booked.

The MOU is an often used term and does not mean an order has placed as a completed "firm" transaction.  Memorandum of Understanding is a detail of what will occur when all parties are brought to the contract table. In fact most negotiations continue after an MOU is issued by the affected parties. It is a somewhat binding agreement over what will occur once all documents are completed to the participating parties satisfactions. The MOU would not include final prices but would include how many aircraft are required and what types requested. Pricing maybe included as a reference. Other services or product would be listed for contractual purposes. Everybody agrees with what is to be worked for on the final contractual order and purchase. An MOU is not a firm contract that can be booked. It is an over arching agreed upon statement for what will be accomplished concerning the potential firm order.

Referring back to the Airbus potential sale for 430 NEO's, it is possible changes could be made or the customer has further considerations needing clarification. The commitment status has a high likely hood of completion unless a disputed condition cannot be resolved. This alone does not make it a firm order yet. Legally, the customer acts in good faith over the commitment via its Letter of Intent and is bound by that LOI unless sale conditions change which would nullify its LOI. Examples could be, a customer could go bankrupt, or the maker could not possibly deliver the product as required. With Indigo Partner Airlines, the risk becomes greater but not likely there will be a failure from a customer commitment status.

A firm deal will costs participating customers money if the contract is violated by an order change. The manufacturer is bound by delivery and performance issues. If it cannot fulfill its end of its promise it may owe the customer money if it fails with contractual points. The word "firm" is a "done deal".  

When the press banters about the subject of orders it often uses its license of journalism by loosely using those terms or words mentioned above without accountability, because no one really knows, even those familiar with the process what the airline or maker has done when it says, "Commitment, LOI, or MOU". It could be all three conditions at the same time but no one really knows which until the customer or maker defines it at some future time.

The best counting method for orders is from the airplane makers-framer own website. Rely on it as it post its orders. Otherwise, a very confused airplane geek can say 430 NEO and 225 Max were sold in Dubai without having the Maker's website even reflect those orders as firm, even into next year.

What's Under The Christmas Tree Starts With Lufthansa

Back in the day, Winging It Started a what's under the tree topic on December 24, 2012

Merry Christmas and What's Under The Tree 2012

When reading that blog at this ABOVE link, REMEMBER IT WAS 2012. Most everything has been since accomplished with the "Winging It" speculations, as if it were looking through futuristic glasses at the end of 2012.

Once again, as was then its about the 777X or 9X as it has become. Lufthansa, an early 777X customer, unwrapped its business class section today for its up and coming 777-9 as shown Below this line.

Lufthansa unwrapped its gift for its business section customers with a redesigned view celebrating its future 777-9 before entry into service. (Photo credit not sited per FMT News)

Lufthansa unveils new Business Class-FMT

It shows six across seating in a plush arrangement with expansive work space in front of the passenger. It has a 87" lie flat sleep configuration for up to 7 foot tall passengers. The "Business" passenger will have a real business space for making a case or being pampered before arrival at Lufthansa's destinations. Merry Christmas for this first unwrapped gift of 2017.

McAllister's Mantra Wants Boeing "Faster-Nimbler"

What does that say about Boeing's game on the big stage? It says the 797 will not be built until all options are vetted and all show stoppers mitigated when introducing the next big thing such as a complete 797 proposal. In comparison, the 787 program was a "damn the torpedo full steam ahead" project having a  "we will invent any solution when needed" approach to airplane building. After all it got Boeing from 2nd to first place in the great airplane war over its arch rival Airbus. McAllister recognizes with opportunity must come a flexibility to adapt and focus on timeliness to make it ahead of the competition.

Under McAllister's watch expect a deep reach into Boeing's playbook pulling out items more intriguing than just a folding wing. How quickly can Boeing make a clean sheet airplane enter service? How adaptable is that airplane for changing from one capability to another? Most aviation geeks won't have long to wait since the 797 vetting process has endured customer survey after survey these last five years. 

What Boeing has learned from its customers is every customer wants what  it wants and nothing else. What McAllister proposes is a nimbler response giving every customer what it wants from a gap range aircraft holding between 220-270 passengers. The customer will have to ask what Boeing can do for them in this Boeing faster-nimbler world.

McAllister wants all options or possibilities on the table with a timeline to get it done. His timeline becomes the control point for any new program. Divisions, such as R&D, will have to become nimbler and think beyond the concrete blocks holding the corporation up. To become nimbler any Boeing sub organization must have a road map through or around corporate road blocks, challenges and innovations where it must produce results or become a modern relic.

The other denominator in this formula, is speed with validation. New concepts will have to use everything in Boeing's box already developed and proven before even plugging it into the Boeing concept. The 797 must have an engine family capable of addressing the various customer needs. It stands to reason a one engine maker offering will be applied to a 797 once an engine is chosen. A gear driven engine option would not of been available with a McAllister plan. Airbus is paying for that side bar with PW woes on its gear driven example. 

Therefore, the usual suspects are what's for diner at a Boeing board room for an engine choice. GE and Rolls will have to come up with nimble option before hanging an engine on a customer's wing.  What an engine maker will need to know is weight and distance required for a 797 order from the customer. The customer orders a 240 seat 797 for 5,000 miles an engine is available for that purpose. The customer may want a 270 seat version, hence another engine pairing is for the 270 seat and range purpose. What if a current 797 service frame changes its use for customer's new purpose? Out comes the seats and on comes new engines for a range and weight change of an in-service aircraft.

That sounds like a nimbler idea in the above scenarios mentioned. The other item is how fast could these plug and play options be developed within a clean sheet design? Boeing is almost there for the 797, except waiting for more data on what it customers want in a 797. McAllister steps in again and smirks about a plug and play concept aircraft within its range of operation and for what a particular customer wants. The "what ifs" becomes a Boeing design motif. 

The 797 must transform as the need changes for its customers. The ability to radically reconfigured a 797 is a selling point for each airline to consider. Boeing can make it faster and nimbler for each customer. 

The Back Side Of The Aviation Business

Boeing has often approach business as a customer first purpose in manufacturing. However, there are different levels of whose those customers may be. The airline, the supplier or the passenger are most of the likely customers Boeing pursues. Its competitor, Airbus, advertises traveling space for its passengers over its competitor.

On the other hand Boeing talks efficiency, cost savings and innovation for its airline customer. Airlines job one is to make money by running a tight ship. Boeing has invested a considerable amount of money into ancillary services offered its customers. Maintenance plans, Boeing expertise and parts/servicing are to name a few products it offers to its airline customers. The philosophy from Boeing is if buying a Boeing aircraft an airline can hire mercenary services from Boeing without having to build its own ground services for itself for great cost.

Airbus has invested its campaign towards patronizing passenger sensibility when it featured a 5" wider wide body as its key reason for flying on its WB. It skipped past what it had to offer as an airline maker concerning its technical and ancillary support for a reason to buy its product. Boeing has emphasized its other contiguous services with the sales of its airplane. 

The theory being, when buying a product without added value accounted for in the sales transaction, it becomes an apple and orange product comparison. Boeing's additional ancillary offerings make a complete deal for any building airline.

The first years of the 787 in service is a good example. Every time the 787 had a fault during service a Boeing team was there to mitigate that fault. Boeing offers a similar service for its normal operations but with the caveat it will be more convenient, cheaper and efficient if hiring Boeing doing the ground work instead of an airline providing a vast number of trained employees to do the same.

This is an example of Boeing's emphasis towards the airline and not directly at the passenger. The second part of this becomes more intriguing for airline planners. Give the airline enough advanced technology for enticing passengers and then the airline is free in its decision on how the passengers are provided. The Airbus model was 5" wider and it fit wider seats in the space provided. Airbus spent money on how window shades were much better than dimming windows. It spent money on LED  lighting systems like Boeing had and it spent money  on its archaic bleed air air filtration processes which Boeing can skip from its electric driven air systems.

Airbus attacked to the passenger sensibility when convincing its airline customer the A-350 was a better deal. The 787 was designed for eight seats across and the A-350 was designed for nine seats across but most airlines choose nine seats across on the 787 in economy. Making a list of who does what better for this wide body class easily becomes an obvious choice in most categories the "new" aircraft offer.

Boeing wins the following battles for the customer: Lights, air, and windows.

Airbus wins the 5" wider space for nine seats across or about 1/2" per seat wider.

The noise difference is a push between the two makers. They are both quiet while hearing people do there thing becomes the issue.

All other comparisons are dependent on how well the airline serves its passengers

Passengers are comparing how seats are configured, airline service and who is able to offer the cheapest ticket. For the price conscious passenger the journey is not the vacation. The vacation starts upon arrival. The passenger not caring for travel prices as its deal breaker, since the typical airline first class or business class is 4-6 seats across no matter what airplane model a passenger flies on. The passenger in this class is looking for airline service from start to finish. However for economy, a ticket price is directly influence by an airlines efficiency, therefore an efficient flying aircraft will have the best seat prices in a competitive economy market.

Could Boeing Exceed 1,000 Net Orders For 2017?

A very interesting questions as per usual answer. "It depends". Boeing is moving forward with several big orders as we read. First, it is best to mention it already has booked 662 net orders to date for this year. It is also important that it has several big deals not yet booked but already counted as "sold" transactions. It will be interesting how or when those transactions will be reported by Boeing. 

First is the 225 flydubai orders for the 737 Max signed for at the Dubai Airshow. Then there is the 787-10 order for 40 Emirates signed at the same show. The 662 net orders added to the 265 just mentioned, and not booked yet by Boeing, comes to a total 927 net orders if it is added by December 31, 2017. There remains another 73 orders needed for adding during December to make an even 1,000 Boeing aircraft by year's end. The occurance of this happening becomes "very possible".

Otherwise, if it doesn't come out during 2017, its 662 net orders already booked is a very good year for Boeing. On the flip side, is the year 2018, which should include any airshow orders not booked during 2017. Anyways, that would make for a decent 2018 starting point. Airbus has in its hip pocket 430 NEO commitments just announced for a multiple of airlines through a purchasing consortium, Indigo Partners. 

It may take some time to firm up those airline orders. Even if Airbus does book the 430 NEO's by year's end, it will not catch Boeing in units booked for 2017. There remains a few surprises before year's end for both manufacturers. 

The A-380 Is Looking For The Exit

Not waiting for a bouncer exercising his duty for a toss, Airbus seeks a gracious way out the door. Boeing recognized its own problem ten years ago when floating the 747-8 concept. The new mega bird would give Boeing a quiet exit out of the market pit. 

Airbus did not want to follow nor could it believe they were in the wrong place at the wrong time. Pride cometh before the fall was an "American only thing" and certainly not a "Euro thing", as Airbus needed to show up any American idea that only a short French man would consider. Having a "Euro Personality Complex", Airbus built the A-380 and its nemesis Boeing built a jumbo freighter pairing it with its dying four engine passenger version through renovating its technology borrowed from the 787. 

Boeing would not risk its reputation and it looked for the 747-8 exit in the mean-time with about 100 orders for its frame having two functions (Cargo and Passenger).

The A-380 was about to be bounced out when someone said again, "Pride cometh before the fall". Dubai 2017 was the moment the Emirates bouncers entered the event while Airbus was not paying attention to the room, but it only remained fawning with its circle of customers at the show. Airbus did not get the Boeing memo ten years earlier. In fact after Airbus cancelled its A350-800 freighter version, it continued jumping the A-380 passenger shark as if it were some college prank.

Emirates ordered 142 of the A-380 in a vast move long ago to corner the Jumbo  market. Boeing sat still and just blinked at that deal  long time ago. The Boeing corporate thinking aligned with thoughts on its just conducted studies, revealing the A-380 will be on life support in ten years. Those years have just flown by and now Airbus is working on saving face with its A-380 failure rather than saving the A-380 itself from collapsing under its own weight. Emirates has 42 more for delivery which will take another ten years for order fulfillment when completing the original order. A twenty year span in aviation compares with a 500 hundred year span of time during the dark ages for improvements. 

The A-380 cannot compete with airplanes having less mass and size. If technology exist for the A-380 to out perform the twin aisle aircraft, then the twin aisle concepts will also have that same technological advancements for themselves. 

The A-380 hung itself out on a very skinny limb and Airbus cannot place a big enough net under the skinny limb for an A-380 fall. Boeing smirks sort of, "I forgot to tell you so!"

The 777X is the current checkmate move against the top end of the Airbus family of aircraft. The A-350 and A-380 game pieces are in jeopardy. One is to be taken the other "Check-Mated" and all by the 777X. 

Airbus will not concede the game. It only seeks silent humiliation for its family of aircraft. Boeing is helping them with the humiliation status. The American based manufacturer currently has a ten year lead over Airbus WB airplane ideas.The A-380 is King of the skies but didn't see the Queen of the skies coming in for its checkmate. Airbus can't leave the room fast enough, it will just be bounced.

China-777X and Pigs Flying

"When Pigs Fly" is an old adage for it will not happen ever. This Thanksgiving day dinner saw three turkeys and  big slabs of ham to make a complete quartet. In this case the pig flew off the counter and onto the plate. 

China or its region has the 777-300-ER well in its fleet. The Chinese cadre of airlines are expanding with the 777-ER and have a newly maturing fleets of aircraft. The 777-300-ER is present and accounted for the next 10 years. 

The current goal is for going with medium wide body with a variety of A-350's and 787's. The 777X has a 326 unit backlog and has not been even assembled or tested yet. China can wait for a 777X type of order. In the mean time, the 777-300-ER is a great fit for its fleets. An airplane service life within its fleet status is about 10 years or a few years longer depending on the business plan. The 777-300-ER averages 4 years old within the Chinese fleets.

Having this little information about China's big wide body fleet status would indicate its airline fleets would need order placement for 777X's by 2025 for replacing its classic 777's. In fact, additional orders for the 777-300-ER may occur over the next three years. By 2022, the 777X backlog would start reducing with a estimated 50 unit a year delivery pace. The Chinese competing long distance fleets would need the 777X by 2025. Orders for those types could be expected by 2022 or in the next four years.

The 777X test phase and entry into service should reach completion by the end of 2020. The Boeing 777X book should have more orders coming from world-wide customers after the initial deliveries establishes its performance in the market place. The buying customer has learned from the 787 and A-320 lessons that rushing new technology has higher risks. 

Airlines, shelling out billions for new models having its first entry into service, have become more risk adverse. 

Additionally, data is not yet available if the 777X's can pay for themselves when operating current routes and the 777-300-ER price is currently favorable when expanding an airlines long distance fleet. Boeing will stay the course forward with this program from lessons learned from the 787 experience. After the 777X wing build, Boeing should have the program under its control with all its new technology installed on the new airplane. 

The China region could order another 50 777X's by 2025. Now that Pigs have flown pass the potatoes. 

Boeing Slowly Works Its Order Book

Recently, at the Dubai Airshow, Boeing announced 225 737 Max with flydubai and another 40 787-10's with Emirates. Then there were other orders during the show. However, after the show there were more orders firmed with Avolon leasing for 55 737 Max 8's and 20 Max 10's. The Boeing order book now stands at a gross 787 units ordered and a net total  of  662 units ordered after cancellations and changes are made, Below is a Winging It chart calculating what Boeing has booked in a week by week effort for keeping it accurate. In one instance Winging It plugged some numbers to match what totals Boeing reported even though there was no reference given by Boeing why two NG 737's had to be deducted and 6 737 Max had to be added to equal its total orders. Those mystery changes are missing from Boeing's report on its website but are part of its totals. Therefore there is a plug number on 11-17-2017 for balancing Boeing's own numbers.

Another note or observation, Boeing is capable of booking more than a thousand orders for 2017 exceeding its book to bill ratio goal of 1 by some degree. Having not booked most of the Dubai airshow orders to date, a final number becomes a speculative exercise as 225 Boeing's single aisle and 40 WB remain in a state of limbo until these orders are finalized. 

However, Boeing has made its order point this year, as it has demonstrated it can go toe to toe with Airbus in the single aisle division, and exceed Airbus wide body aspirations by a long mile. Whatever order hold back Airbus has for announcing only until December 31, 2017, it should not even approach what Boeing will announce by year's end.

Dubai Deer Jet Dreamliner Video

Enjoy what private can do for you on a Dreamliner. The only one in the world so enjoy the peeping lens and say you've "been there, seen it, done it!" The Dubai Airshow side-bar.

What Was Learned At Paris Last June Concerning The 797

The year of the 797 is 2018. The 797 honors the laws of physics and is not competing with Airbus with this offering. The 787 may have been announced in 2003 and first delivered in 2011 eight years later, but the smaller 797 or NMA will complete itself within five years instead of eight years suggesting a 2024 entry into service.

A take from the Paris Airshow from "Aviation Week": June 2017

"At the show, Boeing did, however, confirm several new configuration details, including the use of a fifth-generation composite wing, a “hybrid” composite fuselage, next-generation digital architecture and super efficient, very-high-bypass turbofans. A conceptual graphic and side-view profile also showed a 757-size aircraft  clearly displaying a meld of 777 and 787 design features."

Even though considerable  homage was paid to the 757 configuration, going twin aisle makes the 797 go wider than a single aisle and is narrower than a 787 ,as mentioned by several Winging It postings. The reference of a hybrid composite fuselage becomes an enigma for most aviation geeks. It sounds like the body will have design aspects which will lend to using composites in critical areas for strength, especially around window areas and then inserting aluminum alloy panels in non critical strength areas. The imaginary view implies a panel construction similar to the Airbus A-350 presentation but have a "C"shape panels in a critical window area allowing for its width at a mid-body key point.

The "aluminum alloy" panels will shape the remainder of the body. The over-all weight reduction will make this mid model the most efficient it can be when using hybrid design points as well as hybrid parts points for the 797's body outcome. The lifting surfaces should all be composite. An estimated 50% composite body including wings is the "hybrid" outcome.  

Boeing Books Since Paris

Back in June of 2017 Boeing had amassed a lot of paper airplanes. Those are good intentions (LOI) or promised airplanes via MOU's with some contractual commitment, but what about booking those orders? 

How many and how much is it worth coming from a Paris handshake? Winging It kept records from the show and classified those records with the following sub groupings. 

A solid green color indicated a purchase, or a conversion from one previously ordered type into a firm order at the show for another type. A star by customer's name indicates a new firm order converted from the previous Paris airshow MOU/LOI status. A starred name has been converted into a solid green color purchase condition where any remaining MOU's or LOI's remain a light green color on Winging It's main chart and is not pictured above and is not shown with this posting. A purchase-conversion may have been an MOU at the show but it could be a firm order today and is booked by Boeing. 

A previous posting listed the remaining Paris Airshow MOU's and LOI's and briefly discussed what should happen to those MOU's before year's end.

Below is an indication for how busy the Boeing marketing team has been working. Not only finalizing deals from Paris but currently adding flydubai for 225 Max aircraft, Avolon's 75 Max aircraft, and a slug of wide bodied aircraft from various customers totaling about 45 787's and several 777's as an example.

The below Chart list the prior MOU's and LOI's agreed upon during the Paris Airshow 2017 and are now booked as firm orders for Boeing.

Boeing's backlog of MOU's signed since Paris eclipses Boeing's Dubai Show both in units ordered and in value. The two airshows combined value adds significantly more than $150 billion gross to Boeing's book at list price. The Cumulative Paris order Book is charted below from Winging It data. It includes both those orders during the show and those orders firmed after the show from its MOU status*.

The gross list price value exceeds $100 billion from both shows. This is the Paris List Below at $97 Billion The Dubai Airshow was close to $50 billion.

* represents a prior intent/MOU and is now a booked Booked order on Boeing's website.

The Unannounced 797 Announces Its Program Engineer?

Boeing who has fooled no one at this time has moved chief 777X project engineer, Terry Beezhold, over to a new privately run sweat shop with no apparent project on its drawing board. No one saw this coming, least of all Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS) who commented...

"Yes, we definitely want to be first in line," said Bjørn Kjos, Norwegian Air Shuttle CEO in Seattle.

The 797 doesn't exist and Boeing isn't going to tell even if does exist. It only moves chess pieces around its massive manufacturing chess board without further adieu. The only mystery remaining is 797 launch customer's and where it will be assembled (built).

Bloomberg: "McAllister said Boeing is ready for the challenge:

“We spend an awful lot of time in our position looking at the chess board of moves in the market. I’m very comfortable with where we sit today,” he said. “There is no change in our strategy as a result of this. I say game on!”

It remains for Boeing to whittle down to a one, two, three program process.

• Launch the 777X
• Deliver the 737 Max -10
• and sell about four hundred 797's before the next airshow.

There are many usual suspects vying for the coveted launch customer trophy. Usually this honor goes to a Boeing "favorite" or some customer's massive order announcement. 

The China market is ripe for a 797 and Norwegian Air Shuttle has stuck its foot in Boeing's big factory doors. Boeing analyzes everything, including who will be launch customer and when. Typically a launch announcement will contain a surprise or two. Speculation on who it might be becomes an insane adventure not for those with feint hearts.

"Winging It" is a candidate well suited for speculating because...

• Insanity is its core value
• Its heart has no temperature
• and its pay grade is low enough for the risk.

Boeing would like placing an Airbus insult by having a European launch customer and NAS is ripe for its task of making Airbus stammer without a John Leahy in the room. However, a mega order coming from the far east could be in the works and a launch customer trophy is within China's grasp.

Boeing reports (CNBC): "Boeing has forecast that Chinese airlines will buy 7,240 commercial aircraft worth $1.1 trillion between now and 2036.

Being a 797 launch customer is in a prime position and within China's numerous airline customers.

A 797 launch will include an Asian, American, and European cadre of 797 launch customers. One will be out of a massive order, while another will come to a favorite customer, and finally the last launch customer will come from Europe such as NAS. 

The battle for each region is vicious and it would be difficult to hone in on three top candidates for 797 launch customer trophy. Any Asian favorites emerges from many options. An airline capable of a really big order becomes a complex process in citing a potential launch customer. One could lean towards China Southern or with Lion Air being a possible counter to anything China Southern does. The order number would be a minimum of 100 units.



An American offer coming from North America or its neighbors to the southern continent are possibilities. A surprise and insane launch customer goes to Delta. United is too booked with single aisle and Delta has big plans for bigger aircraft than its single aisle fleet. The buy-in for any launch customer is 100 units or higher.

The European launch was mention at the top goes to NAS. It too could go all-in with a 100 or more with its European business model. 

The Boeing announcement threshold would be for 400 or more units from about a dozen customers in one show. The follow on orders from other customers could swell the ranks by another 400 during one year's time after announcing the 797 launch. It would take a 800 unit backlog to risk 10-15 billion development dollars.

Remembering Paris 2017

The Paris airshow had so many MOU's 737-10's ordered and now the year is closing to its end. The chart below has been updated as best  as possible from the information provided by Boeing's order book postings. The remaining MOU's should be closed off by year's end and here are a list of Paris orders not yet firmed . There remains about 85 aircraft in MOU status from the Paris Airshow for an estimated list value for about $10 billion US. The key to this is the number and value of aircraft which could be added to Boeing's purchase haul for 2017. Today an order for from Avolon was firmed for 75 Max which numbers 55 Max 8's and 20 Max 10's. The order/MOU originated from the Paris Airshow last June and now $11 billion has been added to Boeing's books which will be recorded at a future date by Boeing.

Remaining MOU's from Paris Airshow 2017

Dubai Summary And Conclusion

The Dubai Airshow is completed for 2017. Numbers and opinions remain in some sort of sandstorm sweeping in after the show, when every maker claims victory per its respective PR department. No one's opinion is valid, this case becomes clear. Over a $ hundred billion of aircraft were sold having a 1990's style annual order book total emerging in just one single show.

What can be said, Airbus took in more orders in units and value over Boeing. Boeing stole a customer from Airbus for the tune of 15.1 billion dollars. Airbus did not book wide body orders. Boeing stretched its wide body order book out by another 51 units ordered. The Airbus mega order caught everyone's wind from its breath. The single aisle show dominated the attention of cursory watchers.

The real show from all the Airbus showmanship was the Boeing/Emirates deal indicating a change in the region had occured. Even though Airbus caught up its single aisle order book to Boeing's single aisle order book with one customer and one order, Boeing still leads Airbus with its 2017 single aisle sales. It also leads Airbus with duo aisle sales. Many other MOU/LOI's for both makers will have completion before the end of the year. 

Boeing lost a battle in the middle of its own 2017 order surge. Airbus is losing the 2017 order war and is likely the defeated during 2017. An important observation is the momentum going forward into 2018. Boeing has that momentum. One Airbus order and one Airbus customer is not a long term solution for Airbus's order plight. Boeing has laid a strong Middle East connection for its family of Aircraft which Airbus just lost. The flydubai single aisle deal was more important than the Indigo Partner order. Even though the Indigo Partner has multiple customers in its portfolio and risk is spread out among its own customers, there remains a likely hood several or one of its customers will cancel out from it order burden. Not all business models will succeed and not all orders will be completed. The 430 A-320's orders may shrink over time. On the other hand, flydubai has a ripe market and financially sound benefactor supporting its regional plan. It's not saying all 225 orders will be filled but the risk of order reduction is considerably less for flydubai  than Indigo Partner's position.

The main focus of the show is on the Emirates order as it once again rebuffs Airbus when choosing Boeing's offering of 787-10's. Emirates said no to its first order for 70 A-350-900. It would review  the Airbus case extensively before reopening the order conversation with Airbus. It has been many years since that cancellation for 70 and Airbus has much time to address Emirates concerns. With that, Emirate can talk to many Airbus owners over how the A350-900 is working for them. Boeing only had a testing model for the Emirates comparison when proposing its wide body. In the end the 787-10 beat out the A-350-900 the during the second time for the A-350-900. The reason why is multi faceted but the main reason it the 787-10 was built for high density flying going 6-7,000 miles with the cheapest seat mile expense ratio in the market. The A-350-900 was over built for the Emirate mission. It wasn't a hard decision by the UAE but was a respectful decision as it had promised Airbus long ago, a second look which it gave will honestly as a Airbus solution. Boeing won the world wide body market with this order. 

"flydubai" Saves Boeing's Day With 225 Max Ordered

The slug fest has started with an Airbus 430 Single Aisle order for 49 Billion at list prices. Boeing counter punches with an order from "flydubai" worth $27 Billion ordering 225 of its Single aisle Max aircraft. A Winging It hint was given last week this would be a single aisle sales event.

Winging It November 12: 

"The show is just starting, it ain't over yet!"

Winging It:

November 7, 2017:   “Dubai and the Tip Of The Wing”

Quote:

"The show remains a mystery for orders where Boeing should pick up a sampling of wide body orders rather than having a domination of orders coming from one or two customers. The dark horse is the 737 Max family where a surprising number of the single aisle orders could come in as it is overdue for some more Middle Eastern love."

This prediction did not include an Airbus huge announcement by a previous unknown player to this story. More research and development work is needed by this writer. 

Bloomberg Scoops Dubai With Massive Order News

Airbus is pulling another rabbit out of its hat with a massive single aisle order with Indigo Partners indicating 430 single aisle A-320's. It will be announced in about two hours of this posting.Can't say I saw this coming but it absolutely steals the Dubai show from Boeing if it holds true.

Bloomberg Reporting

Does The Dubai Forty Mean Something?

Emirates placed an order for 40 787-10's at the Dubai airshow. Another clue came forward recently from a remark about the 787-10's testing suggesting Emirates is fond of its flexibility.

Quote from the Charleston Regional Business Journal:

“Emirates has displayed immense confidence in the South Carolina-built 787-10s and has seen the maturation of the airplane during testing as well,” said Saj Ahmad, chief analyst with StrategicAero Research, in an email. “Coupled with Boeing’s rate hike to 14 airplanes a month, this is not the only sizeable 787 [order] we’ll see. There are others almost certainly ready to be revealed if they aren’t in the bag already.”

This brief comment suggests Emirates was walking hand in hand with Boeing during early validation tests on the 787-10. One question must of have been answered during the Emirates participation observing 787-10 testing. This model can stand the desert heat and deliver flying efficiency beyond what its competitor can do.

A second clue from the above quote indicates the 787-10's remarkable flexibility for long haul flights not formerly indicated by Boeing's own publications. The 787-10 has outperformed Boeing's own estimations documented before air frame testing was conducted. It is capable of longer distances than first reported. The 787-10 doesn't have to go beyond 7,000 miles, it just has to go where its potential customers travel. The Emirates business philosophy is right sizing capability within a family of aircraft which Airbus lacks. 

There is no A-350-800 it’s a paper airplane. The A-350-900 is a one trick pony and has more capability than needed, so it hauls that unused capability everywhere while only meeting maximum efficiency 10% of the time. The A-350-1000 steadily loses ground or has a stagnate order book since many airlines cannot find a slot within its business footprint. The 777X is a common ally to all of Boeing's other aircraft. The A-350-1000 only has one friend, that in the A-350-900, making it a family of aircraft I guess.

Airbus is losing the WB end of the airplane spectrum rapidly because it cannot connect the dots from single aisle to the A-380. Boeing has completed several important goals where Airbus has failed to do so in response. A short list below describes the Airbus shortfalls causing customers coming back to Boeing in numbers.

·      Incomplete A-350 Family from Top to Bottom.

·      Inability to counter the 777X program

·      Cannot counter Boeing's mid-range high density 787-10 slot with any of its aircraft.

·      Boeing buried its 747 Jumbo, Airbus can't give up the A-380 before its Break-even point. 

The "Dubai forty" 787-10 is a serious red flag for Airbus. Even if Emirates does place an order for another 30 A-380’s it will have a hard time staying with the A-380 as competitors continue with the Boeing family of aircraft. It will become a one-off super Jumbo carrier. The other airlines will nip its heals around the jumbo fleet. 

However, Emirates realize its ill-fated tacking move with the A-380 and it made a new tack in 2013 by ordering 150 of Boeing’s 777-X’s. Coincidentally, 150 units is a similar to its 142 A-350 orders it has on the Airbus order book. The 787-10 fills an important slot along with the 777X that will in time replace all it’s a-380’s. The total wide body book for Boeing’s "new wide body" stands at 190 not counting the 777-300-ER backlog.

Emirates has to replace its older 777’s in the next ten years. A problem posed with Boeing’s marketing team. Some of the long range Boeing commitment to its customers has been made with this Dubai 40 order. Emirates will need more aircraft in its fleet to replace both the A-380 and its older 777’s. Another airshow another day is the answer for this dilemma. Emirates will need another 100 wide body order in five years. Probably a 50-50 split with the 777X and the 787 family. It just has to wait to see if the 787-10 and 777X works as advertised during testing. It appears the 787-10 has accomplished its goals.