Is The A-380 Too Big To Sell?

The A-380 idea is about 20 years old and has been flying for about twelve years. It used "The Field of Dreams" play book.  A delusion of grandeur unfolded for Airbus promising a break-even point at about four hundred copies in the first half dozen years. However, that day had to rely on some accounting trickery to get out of that promised mess. The airplane has yet to sell even three hundred of its type.

New sales for the A-380 transactions are more symbolic of a buy one get second one free campaign each year. One A-380 order in a year is a big deal. In 2005 it first flew. By 2020 the 777X will fly going farther for less money. In fact today's wide body aircraft can fly two different routes at the same time hauling more people in those different directions than a one direction A-380 behemoth. The 777X will put the A-380 to bed as it ages out of service in the next ten years.

The passenger fantasy for double decked luxuriant travel which is usually reserved for cruise ships does not apply to air travel. Even with 18 hour fights, showers become pointless as there are no balls to dance with even on an A-380. Or does vast amounts of foods exists as found on cruise ships. The travel idea is getting there for the play and not for playing while getting there. The Airbus concept was for each passenger having an exquisite travel experience among five hundred close strangers.

The 777X seeks to find a flexibility for travel rather than only having several dozen ports of call the A-380 has and it will go everywhere having hundreds of cities and countries to visit. Emirates has a definitive business plan for its A-380's but the world will not change fast enough to land its vast fleet of A-380's. The 777X will make airline money in chunks rather than in lumps as the A-380 proposes to do. The 777X must entertain its passengers up to 18 hrs where the A-380 must do the same. In order for the A-380 to do that it must slim down seat numbers while burning fuel on four older engine types.

The A-380 is rapidly becoming a profit boat anchor as it ages. Emirates will order more but after closer examination, that number  may drop from 50 newly ordered to only 20 reordered. The lower realization is for replacement models for its older (or first delivered) A-380's. The fleet expansion will come after the 777X models arrive and not for the A-380's reordered.