China-777X and Pigs Flying

"When Pigs Fly" is an old adage for it will not happen ever. This Thanksgiving day dinner saw three turkeys and  big slabs of ham to make a complete quartet. In this case the pig flew off the counter and onto the plate. 

China or its region has the 777-300-ER well in its fleet. The Chinese cadre of airlines are expanding with the 777-ER and have a newly maturing fleets of aircraft. The 777-300-ER is present and accounted for the next 10 years. 

The current goal is for going with medium wide body with a variety of A-350's and 787's. The 777X has a 326 unit backlog and has not been even assembled or tested yet. China can wait for a 777X type of order. In the mean time, the 777-300-ER is a great fit for its fleets. An airplane service life within its fleet status is about 10 years or a few years longer depending on the business plan. The 777-300-ER averages 4 years old within the Chinese fleets.

Having this little information about China's big wide body fleet status would indicate its airline fleets would need order placement for 777X's by 2025 for replacing its classic 777's. In fact, additional orders for the 777-300-ER may occur over the next three years. By 2022, the 777X backlog would start reducing with a estimated 50 unit a year delivery pace. The Chinese competing long distance fleets would need the 777X by 2025. Orders for those types could be expected by 2022 or in the next four years.

The 777X test phase and entry into service should reach completion by the end of 2020. The Boeing 777X book should have more orders coming from world-wide customers after the initial deliveries establishes its performance in the market place. The buying customer has learned from the 787 and A-320 lessons that rushing new technology has higher risks. 

Airlines, shelling out billions for new models having its first entry into service, have become more risk adverse. 

Additionally, data is not yet available if the 777X's can pay for themselves when operating current routes and the 777-300-ER price is currently favorable when expanding an airlines long distance fleet. Boeing will stay the course forward with this program from lessons learned from the 787 experience. After the 777X wing build, Boeing should have the program under its control with all its new technology installed on the new airplane. 

The China region could order another 50 777X's by 2025. Now that Pigs have flown pass the potatoes.