Monday, December 12, 2016

The Fifty Max Thirty 777 Role of The Dice With Iran

Yes, an Iran deal is made totaling 16.6 billion US dollars. The reconstruction of Iran's aviation infra structure is complete having both Airbus and Boeing signed in for a long wait and political turmoil period. Donald Trump, President Elect (PE), has a haphazard tweet account spewing daily remarks indicating he will make moves affecting both Boeing and Lockheed with a bloat reducing bent. The PE has also mentioned a hint at unilaterally trimming any defense bloat for all programs while building a greater military. He has not described how that will be possible.

Once in office, with all military cards on the table and the PE's vision pushing forward, a clear picture will emerge. The prediction will be a somewhat muted Trump making military cuts topped with military industrial cost retrenchments. This being achieved through order reductions. In other words fewer F-35's, fewer ships and less hors d'oeuvres traveling on the PE's new AF-1 (that would be built during his term(s)). A more likely outcome would be a capstone on F-35 numbers by 400 less by 2030 allowing time for the next chief of state to increase order levels back to original numbers.

Back to Iran, as it dangles the order book as some kind leverage against American political decision making. The US will need and want Jobs and the press will dutifully point out how many jobs will be lost if the US cancels the Iran deal or what if Iran says no thank you to Boeing as it may go all Airbus.

That fortune telling outcome will lie somewhere in between this auspicious order announcement and having new passengers terminals built in Iran by Bechtel. A lot of politics must evolve out of this announcement to become a reality, The PE's verbose tweets will settle down as reality is inserted in both the politics and the populist schools of pronouncements.

For now we must all have sweet sugar plumbs dancing in our heads forming a wishful list of final order numbers for Boeing during 2016. Starting 16.6 billion worth of 50 Max, 15 777-300-ERs, and 15 777-9X, equaling five golden rings any day.