Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Narrowing Down To Boeing's Red Letter 787-8's

Boeing has delivered its fair share of 787-8's in the last five years and now it seems the low hanging fruit has gone from the market, leaving only 110 of the 787-8 to be built. It reminds me of the pudding cup as a hungry appetite scraps the sides for some little extra culinary pleasure. Boeing has reached that point with the 787-8 undelivered clientele. Below is the menu list of 787-8 customers who have not yet received even one of the 787's and shows no life of receiving even one 787-8, which is troubling the firing order on the factory floor. Its getting hard to schedule a 787-8 for a production spot since the larger stake holders (customers) haven't committed to its first 787-8.

See below for the list of nine customers holding out from 787-8 delivery:

Fig. 1

The difficult list of nine customers represent about 60% of the 787-8 backlog undelivered. There are currently 110 787-8 not yet delivered and it seems a long way from any delivery completion with this customer list. Much can be said about the Aeroflot order with Russia or Delta's fascination with Airbus but the main thing with Iraq is an uncertainty at best. ALAFCO maybe holding eight positions having customer intentions validated. This makes any kind of Order Quality Analysis impossible. The summary statement from this list suggests too many loose ends exists with Boeing to be comfortable without some kind of definitive assurances coming from these listed customers.

However, the life line comes from the higher profit 787-9's and 787-10's currently waiting for the build order. Over 400 787-9's and 164 787-10's can fill the factory for years to come. 

Below are the zero built list for the 787-9. This list does not include any customers already receiving its 789-9's having more on backlog awaiting delivery.

Fig. 2

There are twenty-one customers who have yet to receive even one 787-9 out of 195 booked classified as a zero received group. There are plenty of good news stories in this group as some are new orders and almost all are committed customers.

The 787-10 has not been even built at this time so any analysis would be a ridiculous adventure. But... A FYI for any further analysis of customers buying the 787-10.

Fig. 3