Single Aisle At The Climax (Updated new 737 Oders)

Boeing has long proposed its 737 MAX is the undisputed winner of the Single Aisle Airplane Wars. Airbus says not so fast people, the A320 NEO reigns supreme. Who is correct in this assumption?

The answer is in sales numbers for various reasons.

• Fleet renewal opportunity
• Commonality Curve
• Oil Prices become a non-purchase factor
• Time
• Paper vs Metal, Flying version wins orders.

Airbus had an eleven month jump in time over Boeing announcing in 2011 its NEO single Aisle. Boeing lost the advantage of time and was set backwards by about 1200 NEO's ordered in the first year. The first 787 was delivered in 2011 and Boeing was flummoxed by an early 787 debacle and couldn't counter punch Airbus at that time until the next year when orders came surging in for the MAX.

However, Airbus was in perfect sync with market realities. They kept going forward with its customers filling its order book.. Boeing could only try to stay on the same lap around the development stage with orders.

 

So far, so good until 2015. Airbus is ready to lap Boeing on single Aisle orders. This leads me to ponder that oil prices do not make a case for Boeing, for buying its MAX over the NEO. The fuel efficiency difference for the two is a non-decider. 

Commonality found in Airbus product is further along, than Boeing's conversion towards its theme of "fly like a 787" on all models. Customers new to Airbus, may have bought into the price offering from a single aisle discount. Boeing strapped for program profit may have held firm with its pricing in order for it to avoid any development hit on its bottom line for the MAX.

Airbus stole the march on Boeing in 2011 and timed the world fleet renewal window perfectly. The lower oil prices have just began shrinking purchase power in 2015. Boeing drew the short straw when leasing aircraft becomes a tool and side effect from lower fuel prices.

However, as dismal as the 2015 period appears for Boeing Single Aisle purchase orders, it has built a significant internal construct for its marketing. The multitude of 787 sold, and the 777X launch success will make the case for having a top to bottom family of Boeing aircraft. Boeing's out of sync fleet "renewal opportunity surge", will catch-up by 2018 to the NEO book numbers. The year 2015 is bottom hitting for Boeing's Single Aisle effort. In fact Boeing will book some more MAX this month but won't catch Airbus. Boeing will have aligned its timing, commonality factor, and fleet renewal windows by 2018.

The flying version wins orders for Airbus as Boeing sketches out the Max on the CAD, its paper version loses momentum with orders during 2015. The third round of this fight will begin with Boeing having bloody cuts and bruises from the fight. The Boeing metal version rolls towards towards its corner in the shop awaiting the next round.  

Update:

Boeing jumps some net orders for the 737 before year's end, and slightly closes single aisle gap. It is a good indicator Boeing is in the fight to win it.

2015 Net Orders

563

2

49

58

71

743

The Boeing Order Book Graphed

Boeing has amassed orders for a seamless transition from it production floor going from NG to Max effort. The only gap found in the order book is the 747-8i has stalled as the new found twin solution makes it obsolete. A 747-8i doesn't die because of Airbus, it dies because of the 777X concept.

Owning two 405 seat 777-9X can fly more destinations than one 500 seat A380. The A380 is also a dead concept no matter how luxuriously appointed the Gulf States make it.

A Business Finance News Chart

  

With over 4,000 single aisle and over 1,000 Wide Bodies backlogged, Boeing has its work scheduled in a envious position. Comparing with Airbus who has a larger backlog it will be difficult for Airbus to fit more orders in a timely manner. Boeing has synced its production slots closer to market demand, and it will serve them well when marketing for more orders. Airlines who are expanding or are newly forming can fit its fleet expansions for single aisle ordering with Boeing, an important consideration when matching financial resources with business plans.

DDG 1000 Zumwalt Goes To Sea Trials Possibly December 7th

My favorite destroyer is going all out, maybe this Monday. The billions planted on board will make way for testing its systems under full operations with its crews and BIW expertise for the big shakedown. In case you have been living under an anchor, the Zumwalt is the equivalent of the Air Force F-35 when it comes to innovation and technology applications.

The massive destroyer is just bigger and faster than the Arleigh Burke class destroyer. It is stealthier and contains more firepower than most fighting ships found in the world. A projectile from the Zumwalt could sail 60 miles to its target, where the "round" applies inertia and mass obliterating buildings, ships and other wartime objects, and all while coming in at the speed similar to a meteor from space (via rail gun). It could manage the ocean battlespace for both air support and coordinate other ships by using satellite connectivity with multi military systems. It may be invisible from electronic sweeps from its design features. Three will be built, maybe that is all that is needed, one for each Ocean.

How Did Airbus Get To 787?

That is right, the Airbus order count had to play some serious tricks to its order book for totaling a net of 787 A350's to date. When the A350-800 died(ugh), Airbus orders slumped down to a net total of 787 A350's since it had only 787 units ordered and had no other choice. Oh my, not 787 units on order, somehow, it’s Order Book Karma! Since it is also getting near the winter solstice, and I am ready for more valuable information, I am sharing outrageous observations during the season making a new Winging It Christmas tradition. Hours of Darkness improves my lucidity? Just think only 22 shopping days before I go broke.

Airbus needs to desperately sell one more A350, any takers?

Starting with 817 net A350's ordered "Winging It" considers these A350-800 adjustments! Subtract the net thirty Airbus loss over the A350-800 cancellations and transfers to other A350 aircraft, Viola its 787 time on the books.

OFFICIAL Link to the Numbers

787-10 Seals Design Completeness. Lock and Load Time

Boeing just signaled the long journey in the design shop has ended for the 787-10. The mega builder learned from its 787-8 process how not to go there and there. It then built the 787-9 without missing a step. The mishap trail disappeared in the development weeds. The 787-9 was an opus effort for all things good and all things perfect. Sales kept soaring for the 787-9 (Below). 

The excitement for the 787-10 climbed because of the 787-9 tests and delivery to New Zealand Air's "all black ops" entry into service excited the world. The giddy Boeing team knew it had validated the 787 concept coming from disastrous 787-8 days to the heady 787-9 march through designing, freezing, and successful first flight.  All the 787-8 bogies were shot down by the 787-9 program.

It comes to the 787-10 with all the "how to" confidence and billions of experiential knowledge points on a new frame that is 95% 787-9 based. Continuous improvement has hit the big leagues with the 787-10 effort. It will fly forward without mishap. It will fly loaded for about 7,400 miles. It will seat up to forty more passengers than the 787-9, which is already comfortably outfitted with about 290 seats. Call it targeted for 330 seats for ocean busting covering 90% of the world market. If you want more then buy the 777-9X for 100% world market coverage and 405 seats.

Boeing Quote: Via E Turbo News

"With the 787-10, we are building upon our experience and the 787-9 design itself to create this newest member of the super-efficient 787 family," said Ken Sanger, vice president of 787 Airplane Development. "Through our dedicated team and our disciplined processes, we have optimized the design for the needs of the market and are excited as we look forward to production."

Using the word "excited" is an understatement from Ken Sanger. The first level order book stands at 164 787-10 sold. No one expected 164 before entry into service. It may rise in order number once it flies during the testing phase.

One more Boeing PR Quote:

"The 787-10 is the third and longest member of the 787 family. With a range of 6,430 nautical miles (11,910 km), the 787-10 will cover more than 90 percent of the world's twin-aisle routes at a whole new level of fuel efficiency: 25 percent more fuel efficient than the airplanes it will replace and at least 10 percent better than anything offered by the competition for the future."

Predictive Nature Of Boeing Blogging

It's always important foreseeing future trends based on current and past efforts while making an assumption out of whole paper tissue. Currently Boeing and Airbus has already made its 2015 statements representing many months of activity and preparation. Airbus holds the order book advantage going into December 2015. Boeing holds a few more calculated surprises which in no means will overtake the Airbus lead, but will demonstrate a market position in both the wide body and narrow body markets.

The scorecard is important to Airbus as an arm of its marketing scheme. They have achieved a draining of its order swamp this year going into the end of 2015 with its 910 gross order book count.

It beats Boeing in count by a wide margin which has mustered 647 Boeing aircraft booked in a gross count way. The question becomes what does this all mean in a snapshot.

Assumptions:

• Boeing drained its order swamp in 2014
• Airbus pricing is favorable with neutral leaning customers 
• Boeing Wide body has gained market separation over Airbus Wide body
• Airbus A320NEO keeps on keeping on
• Boeing Max comes in late after the single aisle market bubble ordering pops.

Just looking at these few ideas about the Boeing order book is enough realization, Boeing knew 2015 would softened its bookings, and not to worry about what Airbus does in 2016. For them (Airbus) it will be tough to double down on its ordering pace for two years in a row.

Boeing has achieved a benchmark that Airbus doubted when the first A350 was delivered. There should be no continuation of 787 order dominance. Airbus believes that once the A350 was delivered it was game over for the 787. Not so fast my friend! The 787-9 and 787-10 keeps up with orders while the A350 family of orders has languished in 2015. Boeing takes in a net of 71 (97 gross) 787 orders in 2015 while Airbus only has seven (oops) A350 during the same period of time.

Those numbers suggest a serious separation for competing programs. The Boeing stretches out its order and delivery lead even though the A350 has put its best foot forward with Qatar deliveries. The Arab state isn't drawing many comparison between the two types of competitors it now owns. Being the Airbus A350 launch customer, you would think its own pride of choice would deem some disheartening remark towards the 787 in its fleet, as positioned as the Premier Airbus A350 Launch customer.

Home Again For The November Boeing Roundup

Being a road junkie makes me appreciate Home Again!!!

Here are the recaps which will be updated with commentary on the flip side of tomorrow.

  

One point of note on the above chart suggests the 126 787 delivered to date during 2015 is a spot on number where Boeing will exceed guidance during 2015 with its former 10 a month number project as it becomes an overly cautious investor count, and should be upped to a realistic 12 a month guidance. It must move to 140, 787 a year delivered for any realistic relevancy, or become another silly statistic we all must endure each month reflecting on just ten produced. The real deal is a mystery on how in 2016 will continue with the incorporation of the 787-10 project and how it will impact the production floor by end of 2016.

The insertion of the EVA 787-10 order for 18 of its type with 6 more in option- limbo gives the program a significant boost as an indicator the type is becoming a success story before first entry into service.

The moving average chart is a fundamental snapshot, validating the guidance over a three month period. Looking a consistent number of twelve units a month determines if Boeing can sustain its goals of moving ahead with a new guidance which should occur in a 2016 annual report. Despite the onset of the 787-10 program. Twelve is the Christmas number announced for the production count each month for its 2016 guidance.

The big chart above is what it’s all about. The 354 delivered to date is program success. 1,143 787 ordered smashes the Airbus' dream into a nightmare. The 787 family of aircraft has validated itself as the leading edge aircraft during the first part of the 21st century. 

The divide of program aircraft above indicates a plan coming together on pace as visioned. The 787-10 is the big prize in 2015. The EVA order for 18 is significant in multiple ways. One for program validation, two for competitive relevance, and three for program completeness. The WB competitor, Airbus has whiffed it! The A350 -800 is dead on arrival. The A350-1000 is still looking at a NEO card play long after the program was launched, and finally the venerable A350-900 meets the 777-8 &-9, making Airbus sputter out a "WTF" comment concerning Boeing's offering of superior performance. Please note the Boeing order year is not yet done.

The chart above counts the units chambered versus units fired out. The WIP raw numbers of 45 establishes a static range of about 45-50. Fifty would be plant capacity number, forty-five seems to be a plant efficiency WIP number. The current Boeing WIP of forty-five is the primer for 2016. Output is keeping up with supplier input. The cash flow mechanism for the 787 has become a fixed number flow during the time where it approached 790 not yet built.

Northrop Defaults To Becoming Sole Source Bomber From DOD Procurement Process

The Pentagon, in its infinite wisdom, has defaulted the Bomber program to a sole source provider of American long range defense structure. Both Boeing and Lockheed lost the bid and may well loose interest in future bomber making. Thus leaving Northrop, the sole source of LRB making going forward.

The Pentagon scheme of things was preserving a manufacturer in competitive bidding. They preserved the Northrup complex. Choosing Lockheed's F-35 bid over Boeing, they preserved Lockheed as a Fighter builder over Boeing's scheme. Now what has Boeing been targeted to do for the pentagon, freight? Yeah, Boeing is now the freight and drone center for the Pentagon.

The Pentagon has used its procurement process as a means to shape a sole sourcing equipment strategy for military procurement by default. Boeing, a capable Bomber provider may no longer want a part of that dog fight in future bid wars. Otherwise, it will give the Pentagon a marginal bid approach for winning future bomber bids, letting the "other" (Northrop) competitor have its way in a full spectrum effort on the next bid. It also acquiesced its fighter bid with Lockheed submitting its capable but ugly F-32 offer, then losing to the F-35 for a Multi Role Fighter award. However, the Pentagon didn't need a 3 in 1 fighter, it needed a two/for the Navy and Air Force, and should have awarded a sole source F-32 from Boeing for the Marines. They would have preserved two manufacturers competing while splitting the order. Now they have only one interested in building fifth generation fighters at this time, Lockheed. The airframe is constrained by using it for three different roles. A two model bid from one a frame concept, would have made the F-35 greatly enhanced aircraft and more robust for both the Navy and Airforce.

The Pentagon plan inadvertently has diminished our war making, by keeping its manufacturing base spread far out in the industry. The scorecard, is all three big manufacturers now have become a sole source sponsor, but at least they are not entirely out of business.

The military should be tasked with rebuilding a competent defense complex by managing a winning bid process from Value Added awarding. Each bidder brings something to the bid table of high value and should remain in the award process not as the primary recipient but as a secondary awardee. Whether it be a ship, submarine or aircraft, "a competent bid" should have a place at the Military industrial complex table." 

In the bomber bid, they are now talking about 80-100 bombers will be built. Not a solid 100 unit proposition at all. When in fact they are considering only 80, they should be considering a second Bomber for its attributes uniquely from the bid process against the winning bid. Putting all your bombs in one basket may result in "the mishap of choosing" the build. They should build 80 of one type and fifty of the other type. The "top while in service performer", wins a future reorder. That is the ultimate goal. The best Bomber winning ultimately.

Oh yes, I am on vacation, sorry for posting this after saying I'm gone for some time off from this keyboard. Gotta go people are coming, shhh.

Taking A Winging It Break Until Later This Month

For those who follow Winging IT, word play is having its seasonal shutdown starting today. I will be back late November resuming my airplane routine, after which I am well fed-up. Keep watching for a new Blog addition after the US Thanksgiving week has ended. It's always a joy to spout off with conjecture over what can be gathered from the press and Boeing stuff. I have posted almost 747 blog pieces since late 2012. I hope everyone enjoys the sarcasm, insight and elements of fact making for an enjoyable read, which may inspire additional thought about the Boeing program. Don't ever confuse fact with humor, as the smiles are meant to defuse the serious nature of corporate ostentatious pronouncements.  Keep reading the prior postings during the next two weeks and form an appreciation for Winging It prognostications. It is my pleasure forecasting fantasy, past the obnoxious opinions found in aviation’s marketplace. See you all on the flip side of a break.

The Boeing Acceptance Numeration Corporation (BANC)

Ethiopian Airline has indicated an intent for "At least 10" Airbus in light of the recent US Congressional stoppage of EX EM shutdown. Fondly, known as student loans for buying with US industry. Many captains of industry depended on these loans for American products, such as a 200 million Dreamliner. 

Ethiopian "was" one such customer of Boeing. Not all is lost, even as it contemplates ordering up with Airbus for "at least" 10 A350-900's in the next two years. It already has on the books 14 A350's. It currently has about 19 787 ordered with six more in the queue for delivery. Thirteen are in service currently.

It's hard to imagine how Airbus managed squeezing in an order with Ethiopian without an EX-IM deal backing an Airbus order. Unless it offers internal backed financing from Euro backing. General Motors used to offer GMAC financing for its customers. Boeing should offer its BANC financing for its customers. However, R&D and production efficiency advances have gobbled up capital, to the tune of a $28 Billion hole, where Boeing needs to recover through producing and delivering more 787's. The BANC is in "the Boeing hole". If it can produce and deliver more 787's, it can have a BANC for its customers.

Ethiopian did indicate it had a propensity for Boeing aircraft and would expand its fleet with 777X's sometime. The Airport at Addis Ababa is well situated above 7,000 feet high, having a natural design fearure for both the 787 and 777X operation. Once the 777X flexes its wing tips out, it's off with a greater sum of passengers than what the A350 payload could accommodate going the "distance".

Ethiopian has gobbled up most of the early builds awaiting delivery in its own time. They bought from a happy Boeing, wishing to unload its "Terrible teens" on any airline willing for under $150 million to take them. Even if it will be in the 2016-2017 time frame. The six 787 yet to be delivered are those Terrible Teens. Once again, where is Ethiopian Airlines getting its money for freshly minted A350's unless Airbus will give Ethiopian Airlines a sweet deal like the Boeing Terrible Teens deal. The deal could be in the financing and not the airplane itself.

In two years, Boeing could conceivably offer its BANC for its customers and not depend on the EX-IM debacle for additional sales. Only profitability from the 787 could assure such a move. Only retirement of the 737 MAX and 777X startup push could give Boeing a window to do such a financial endeavor. The Cap on the BANC is set by family backlog. The 747-8i has no backlog, hence no BANC. Go to EX-IM in that case. The MAX through 777X has BANC for its customers at this time. Combined with Marketing deals which are made out of Airbus like thin air at Addis Ababa, Boeing deals are made with both price and financing appeal from its "BANC".  

Boeing Is providing Late Ordering In 2015

As mentioned before, Boeing has a plan for 2015 and it’s about its customers coming together and announcing during November and December what's up with Boeing aircraft ordering. 75 Max have hit the books. Possibly 300 more orders will be added to the books by year's end. Even though wide body orders are scarce with the Dubai Show, the order makings are still hanging around with its "Maker", Boeing. Order judgement day is scheduled by December 31, 2015.

Boeing Reveals Jet Airways as Customer for 75 737 MAX 8s

   

Emirates Respecting The Boeing Stance On Its 787-10

Emirates has announced to those paid to listen and report, it will wait on the market results instead of the duopoly PR machine. The airline recently canceled its order for 70 A350's in 2014. A big blow to Airbus ego. Boeing also has promoted its own yet to be built 787-10. Both manufacturers are positioned with airplane types having considerable Emirate's doubts from the flight line.

Each have the good news and bad news scenario in play. Good news, Emirates is still talking to Airbus. Bad news, Emirates is still talking to Boeing and so forth. The A350-900 has range beyond an Emirates solution and becomes excessive baggage for its route plan. The Boeing 787-10 is just right for its route plans, but becomes a lame duck in the event longer range is needed. Problem is solved for both makers via blending orders from both manufacturers.

Emirates Delays Airbus A350 Order Over Performance Concerns

The commonality issue becomes an important cost after blending fleets from two manufacturers when Emirates pursues an all-purpose fleet dynamic. Boeing attempts a solution having the 777X option with the 787 family and then commonalty is resolved. Airbus has a less dynamic line up with only two models in play. The A350-900 and the A350-1000. Emirates is looking at manufacturer blending and may drop this option when all numbers are assembled. 

However, Boeing has the 7,000 mile 340 seat 787-10, the 8,500 mile 350 seat 777-8X, and the 8,500 mile 405 seat 777-9X . Emirates is mulling actual operational performance. They have time to burn before its next big order. Time to wait for the 787-10 first deliveries and time for waiting on the A350 first hundred deliveries. The marketplace will decide for Emirates its best fit. 

Airbus is given a second chance at a large order, but it would likely end up as a split order with the 787-10, and then only gaining some A350's back in limited numbers. Perhaps a 60/40 split for 100 aircraft for the two manufacturers. Boeing would prefer a 100% order win during the 2018-2019 cycle. The later year order placement represents an allowance of time for both manufacturers rolling out equipment in an Emirates real world market testing of all aircraft, before it makes a decision.

Airbus Shrugs-Emirates Shops Boutique: Its Dubai

The big stories are huge in stature. Emirates wants 200 A380-NEOs from Airbus where they can't spend the money developing a boutique order just for Emirates. No one else is seriously interested in the A380 NEO at this time. The super Jumbo fad has faded even with another "NEO" label slapped around in the Airbus R&D hallway.

Dubai has become a real world air show. The oil well hole in the desert region has become the real show stopper. Golden Oil prices have fallen worldwide. Rational heads prevail at both ends of the market system. Airbus won't front billions of dollars (or Euros) for the NEO label added on the A380 program. Emirates has itchy fingers in its bank vaults. The solution to this dilemma, is simple. Have Emirates invest $20 Billion into Airbus stock specifically for the A380 NEO program, and then turn around ordering 200 A380 NEO's by writing an extremely huge check for its order. That's what Airbus is talking about, otherwise forgetta-bout-it!

The real world has caught up with Dubai. The money graph has dipped low in 2015. The backlog graph has swung to a peak in the same time frame. The Dubai show, once again is about assurances given in private rooms around the venue. Making plans and making planes is the discussion for all the industry players. The ordering no longer holds center stage for this year's meet and greet. The show is about how Boeing is planning for a Tweener-Twin that is not an official wide body nor is it a single aisle, hence the nickname, "Tweener-Twin". Airbus went with the A321 single aisle route answering the 757 gap.

Airbus and Emirates are at a loggerhead over its monster Jumbo. Airbus knows the A380 sales are flat, and has little airport appeal compared to the Airport compliant 787 family. Two 787's can land five minutes apart from two different parts of the world holding a combined 500 passengers. They can unload at two different parts of a large terminal minimizing the congestion created as compared with the double decker A380. Airports are fussy about airport expansions for only one type of aircraft such as the A380. Airbus wishes for an order for 32 classic A380 and not an order for 200 NEO in spite of Tim Clark's (Emirates) admonitions they would order 200 A380 NEO's.

So goes the Dubai meet and greet, 2015. Many other players wander the event on company travel expense accounts. Many other aviation suppliers show its wares to the tens of thousands people on some kind of professional junket. However, the deals were made over the phone, computer or skype before the show. Now participants meet in secure rooms away from the crowd with the intent of forming a show announcement later. During the four day show, later is in hours, not months. The deal was committed long before the show and now it's party time after signatures.

Any Air Show is about networking and forming relationships. It's about seeing everything better than what two years ago were presented. Dubai, Farnborough, and Paris are part Comic-Con, flybys, and showing off. Airbus Leahy is a showoff. Boeing's Randy Tinseth reminds me of a showman, coming from the Ed Sullivan era. Randy is straightforward and makes the case from facts derived out of statistics and does not exaggerate. Leahy, on the other tells what everyone wants to hear. When Boeing beats Airbus on a head to head competition it's from customer's careful considerations.

All in all, this 2015 Dubai show is about relationships, because the ordering portion is a separate issue from any Airshow. A perfect storm if you consider ordering a convergence of need, money and timing opportunity, and then orders come to the show and completes its purpose. 

Boeing Contemplating A Tweener Twin Aisle

There is a hole in the family left by the Boeing 757. Airbus seeks interloping into Boeing's family lineup with its A321 Neo. Boeing has stretched R&D through its simultaneous projects for the 777X and the 737 Max, now forming on deck in the prototype barn.

Back to the board room as VP's examining the charts, graphs, and slick videos on what a Tweener could do.

• It must not encroach on the 787-8 market
• It must not resemble the now defunct 787-300
• It must be wider than the 757
• It must look different than the Max 
• The Tweener may have twin aisle sensibility
• The range is for any "Continentals traveling" provides 4500 to 5000 miles of connectivity
• The Tweener-Twin purpose gains an Island access sensibility
• The Tweener-Twin takes on the best of Boeing for an aircraft holding up to 250 passengers

In order to meet these ideals, it would be limited to seven across seating within a body approximately 48 inches narrower than the 787. It could utilize production infrastructure already in place for the 787, using the transportation systems used for shipping 787 body parts, assuming this would be an all plastic body and wing concept aircraft. 

Where it will assemble is probably a difficult decision not yet determined. Introducing a new type in Everett is a complex problem of space and not labor. Going to Charleston for assembly is a question of labor and not space. Either way this is not a split assembly location issue, but will be a sole source assembly decision within Boeing's plant structure. 

This is the game changer, when making a plant decision, and could be Boeing's hesitation point before going forward. All the data has not been presented in order to make a best decision even while having labor not yet bidding for the honors of building Boeing's next aircraft.

If Boeing takes labor out of the equation, there could be problems on all its programs except the 787-10 program going forward. Boeing could shop another location for building the Tweener-Twin, and solve several questions. In that case, during a community bidding war having Boeing select it as the new plant location, would benefit Boeing once again for cheaper land and an available labor pool. Many cities in the Northwest could supply Boeing a convenient opportunity.

Boeing Bombs Bomber Bid and Protests

However, after all is said and done Boeing claims, Northrop did not take into consideration a spiraling cost quotient when accepting Northrop's bid. It, Boeing, did and lost the bid. The double team adds Lockheed against the DOD Acquisition Department and Northrop.

The comment coming from experts has already entered the fray with the same early conclusion agreeing with Winging It, DoD Acquisition had already closed any troubling loopholes within the bid process. Hence, the Northrop proposal was a solid bid meeting all contingency foreseen as part of the bid requirements. I would be surprised if Boeing-Lockheed have the case strength  needed for a vigorous pursuit, as Boeing once had in its tanker protest. The Long Range Bomber (LRB) proposal has a greater nebulous element within the bid, and it would be difficult to prove any definitive considerations for spiraling costs. The Long Range Bomber is not from a commercial frame, but is from a military frame and is a concept consideration favoring Northrup, which has demonstrated a similar frame in operation, and Boeing has not had one in operation at this time.

The Boeing argument is more theoretical than conceptual. Northrop's complaint could be valid, in addition that it will cost the company and the government millions defending the process. Boeing must have highlighted the costs structure in its bid making. It should use the same arguments for its costs validations and should be included within its protests submission (remains to be argued). If Boeing, didn't cover its argument within the bid process, then they are now stuck with a bid loss. The capability argument against Northrop by Boeing, is an opinion and a theoretical risk the Government is willing to take, judging from past Northrop bomber deliveries.  

The Boeing claim would be that acquisition people ignored the Boeing proposal in part from its other real information included, and accepted Northrup's proposal and less development capability without regard to real world costs. The LRB project cost spiral was erroneously omitted when deciding over the Boeing bid having a greater technology capability, becomes Boeing's primary argument. 

All of this now becomes a consideration of the legal process; taking into account Boeing's claims and Northrop's realities presented within the Acquisition's LRB bid constructs. The technical bid aspect may belong to Northrop and the practical aspect may belong to Boeing. The court will not certainly cut the baby in half to decide the issue. Boeing gambled and lost on the bid process.  

787 Family Snapshot

The 787 Dreamliner family is four years in operation. The time provides an opportunity for family a picture. However being only a wallet sized addition, it will suffice, as a momentary glimpse of things to come.

 

The snap shot of the Dreamliner shows about 30% of all Dreamliners booked are now delivered. A significant footprint on the wide body world. The 343 aircraft 787 types, in customer hands are dominating airline operations. The Boeing Dream has become an Airbus nightmare. It just dominates airspace at this time, and will continue to do so for the next ten years into the foreseeable future.

Almost 63% of all 787-8's are now delivered against total number ordered. A significant production number for airplane described as impossible to make by an Airbus company back in 2005, just a mere ten years ago. Since then, Airbus rushed to match the Boeing idea with half measures. It only could answer with a 5 inch width difference.

Additionally, 12% of the 787-9's booked have been delivered and are gaining altitude as it has leveraged the 787-8 concept into a perfect WB fit. It goes farther and has the additional seating space for airlines maximizing its business models. Japan Airline opts to go spacious with about 195 seats and its competitor ANA, provides 395 seats on its 787-9. 

The 787-10 yet to reach the production floor, promises reaching maximum metrics for the 787 design. Although giving up having ultimate range of the 787-9, it will meet 90% of all route range currently in use or considered for expansion. The ultimate goal of the 787-10 is filling the high density market segment with the efficiency of the 787. Fully loaded its an ocean hopping experience. 

Boeing's Late 2015 Order Flow

Korean Air has become the next order flowing in for Boeing in the Sixty day Market segment. December 31 is only 56 days away as the inflow of late 2015 orders show no abatement. The latest order has brought Korean Air out to play with 30 737 Max and an option for 20 more Max. Since the news so far is sparse on detail, Winging It, assumes they are the 737-800 variant. Also, it ordered two 777-300ERs for its fleet. The order tally's 4 billion at list prices.

Since October of 2015 there has been a steady flow of order announcing in both the confirmed deal making, and the works-in-progress paper shuffling category. Today Boeing has not yet posted its plethora of orders from EVA (787-10), a bulk China order of 240 aircraft on the table (tethered by a Chinese Assembly Plant Deal). 

Boeing Rushing In Orders During Next Sixty Days from Somewhere

Select Setting For The Dubai Airshow at: Market Assurance

Mega deals are dependent on higher Oil prices from the desert region. Dubai, after its 2013 order splurge of Boeing aircraft will produce token bookings for Boeing in 2015. A show surprise would be any big order. Boeing has known this for some time. It would have to stay another two years hanging out at the Dubai oasis.

The Boeing 2015 sales effort depends on a worldwide success outside the desert region of the Middle East. Any big order push is for a end-of-year grand finale from other world players. China has baited Boeing with a 240 airplane order dangling like a worm when an agreement with Boeing for building a finale assembly plant in China is achieved. It would hope to gain some airplane technology through Boeing's airplane building knowledge gleaned from a Boeing Assembly Center venture which could slip "expertise" to its own COMAC effort. The big plan for them, is an eventual world domination scheme over the current duopoly of Boeing and Airbus.

This brings all of us to the point, what about Dubai? Boeing must know by now the score card with this year's airshow since is just around the corner. However, they are looking for market assurance if they can't record sales on any kind of bragging stage. Airbus is always a mystery until it blurts out something, somewhere, somehow. It is settled, it’s all about assurance going forward. Boeing will talk about 2017 at the Dubai 2015 show. There will be a time in 2017 for oil price adjustments and fleet expansions notions going forward going back from the year 2013 Dubai. 

The 777X will be advanced in development going so far along, the actual performance metrics become a reality from Paine Field's first flight. The folding wing will be the talk of the 2017 airshow looking into the future. One more time, “let's watch the wing tip fold upwards at the show”. Expect some follow-on orders in 2017 for the 777X. The 2015 Dubai Airshow will assure it this year.

Amping Up The 737 Build Rate

Currently Boeing has two Renton lines building 42 737's a month. Soon a third line will reach the same capacity producing another 21 737's a month. It is natural to assume, an ultimate rate can be obtained with a fourth line somewhere beyond Renton. Many believe China is the ripe field for expansion. “Winging It” believes there are other spots in the world for that distinction for a fourth plant. It must be located in a region that has a long range production prospectus for the single aisle builds. China once again percolates up in discussions.

 

The difficulties are plentiful is the grand scheme of things for building a new assembly plant with all the ancillary businesses required supporting such a production aspiration. Once again China proves it could be an answer. The cost of a long range supply chain to China would be the biggest issue, followed by having trained employees capable of handling continuous change on the production floor. 

Boeing has developed a sweet 737 supply chain spanning North America going to Renton Washington. No such sweet supply chain would exist in a China operation initially. The Chinese would have to install a Boeing body assembly as found at the Spirit plant. An engine supply center or production center for the CFM engine would land in China. However, the hundreds of thousands technological parts are relatively small and lightweight. They can come via air cargo from around the world.

The possibility of a China operation is real and necessary for Boeing Marketing having a Boeing sponsored, Chinese built single aisle aircraft plant. The region buys hundreds of 737's every year and would keep shipping 737 going out to all of the Asian market. The Renton Plant if it maxes to 63 a month production limit could continue as the North American-South America and European supplier for the 737. They would need 2,000 aircraft Backlog. The China plant needs about a 1500 unit back-log with a 42 a month build rate. The ultimate rate for both plants would be 105 737 a month pouring into the market. This would meet the single aisle demand for the next ten years. 

However, don't count Charleston out of this venture. It has room to build a 42 a month 737 production plant within its property. The convenience is obvious, but it not known how it would affect the Asian market if Boeing did not have a footprint in the Asian region. That study of course would be secret to Boeing. If the Chinese offered Boeing a deal it couldn't refuse. Boeing would want leveraging points over Airbus in the single aisle Asian market, if it goes further west than Renton, WA, and not go east with Boeing's Charleston, SC.

Boeing Rushing In Orders During Next Sixty Days from Somewhere

The Boeing fall rush has started and will culminate at the end of December. Even though Winging It, has mentioned some late 2015 orders over several Blog postings, it will continue mentioning the Boeing order book. The Dubai Airshow is up next. Several large orders elsewhere loom large. Nine more 787's where just announced by El Al from Israel, with another six 787's, must show up from a leasing company in El Al's behalf, yet to be announced somewhere.

"Somewhere", is the 2015 Order Book theme. The demonstration is an all-out Boeing scramble for 787 orders as well as a 737 Max push. Repeating a news item from earlier in October 2015 is the China conglomerate order, not yet disclosed for about 240 aircraft ordered. I believe this remains for late in December as the Keynote order placement for 2015. Boeing has pulled an Airbus move. Waiting for the last month to unload its order build-up from a year's worth of scrambling the global market.

The stockholder version is an entertaining presentation of a company not leaving any stone unturned for the order book. The production story is an exciting chapter suggesting take no prisoners on delivery of jets. Airbus got the memo finally and is responding with its own factory surge. It may be too late, as Boeing is not looking back over its production shoulder. If necessary, it will keep expanding production as a key to its always improving strategy.

Boeing knows production is the key to customer success. The current 787 order surge comes as a byproduct of production leveraging the customer forward with orders. The Airbus production flow of only about half dozen A350 delivered in almost a year is strangling its order book from customers. Boeing delivered about 40 in its first 12 months of a more complex aircraft. I will suggest Boeing did a much better job of getting product out faster than Airbus even though Boeing built a more complex and problematic aircraft at the onset.

Airbus will brag about how trouble free its A350 is considering it did not attempt to go all electric or risk an all new battery system as Boeing attempted. It buried its troubles in the shop and not on the flight line photo lineup. In sixty days Airbus will have a delivery number for the first twelve months with its less complicated and advanced airplane. I don't think Airbus will deliver another thirty A350's before January 2016, matching the Boeing feat in its first 12 months of 787 production and delivery.  

Halloween Numbers Will Scare Airbus October 31, 2015

The October recap culminates, as it almost thrives on pushing and pulling the 787 program to maturation. Through smoke and fire, engine indicator lights and parts chain stalling, the Boeing people can now say, here we are! The chart below show just two less 787's delivered by end of October, compared with all of 2014. It will go forward with another 60 days of production, if considering guidance, it will beat 130 units for 2015. It may go with 144 units, unless Boeing starts its annual factory reconditioning with both Everett and Charleston plants. I will suggest a quiet Christmas for Boeing production, and guess out only about 138 787's for all of 2015.

Airbus Has A Mission and this Mission is chasing Boeing's ghostly 787 numbers; Ding  Dong-Trick or Treat.

With the conclusion of 2015 rapidly approaching it stands to reason more orders are on the way and the 2015 order count will not stay at 50 YTD orders as listed above.

Below is the striking number of 280 787-8's delivered within four years since the first 787 arrived in 2011. Sixty more 787-9's have been delivered as it is positioned for 2016 as the primary type going to customers for the next three years. The tip coming from Winging It, is watch how many 787-10's are ordered.

Leveraging The 787 Has Started

A few airlines are considering expanding its 787 fleet. So today alone the news has reported the following fleet expansion either already done or under consideration.

• Norwegian Has ordered up with Boeing for 19 more 787-9
• Scoot is deploying its continuing delivery for 20 with plans for fleet 787 expansion
• TUI or Thompson is considering another fleet expansion with Boeing for its 787-9's

Why the prepositioning for more 787's? The answer is the first batch is making such a success for each airline already flying the 787. The list will gain length during 2016 as more airlines will buy more 787's from the success of its current fleet of 787's. This is what is called leveraging. Levering an asset value (cash) into another of the same value (787's) when expanding the business. It’s done all the time in business. In this case it moves billions of dollars into the 787 marketplace. This was one of Boeing's strategic development points back in 2007.

"Winging It" sloppy Vision statement: "Once customers get these first 787 into its hands, it will propagate an urgency for more 787's flying more routes through a strategic equipment replacement and route expansions." With what they (Scoot) quickly see with its 787s, is they have an urgent need, as they have already received both 787-8's and 787-9's, which is making Scoot money for leveraging into more 787 aircraft orders.

Airbus customers are not so fortunate since it has a slow delivery of the A350 at five or six in twelve months, there are no A350's in operation for leveraging (money banked) additional A350 sales booked. The Boeing 787 production yeast has risen the 787 Market bread, where Airbus is still serving an unleavened version of its sales pitch. There is no Airbus product leveraging at this time. Boeing's almost 340 units of 787's flying, is putting more cash in the bank, for buying more 787's for its customers.