The Midnight Express Or The 797 Topic

Several pundits have hinted at a 2019 797 announcement by Boeing. There is starting to be bits and pieces of information coming to the forefront. These bits include some benchmarks in design aspirations for a 797.

• Plastic Body
• Plastic wings
• 797-6 with a 2-3-2 seating for 228  passengers (4,500 NM)
• 797-7 with a 2-3-2 seating for 267 passengers (2 classes) (4,200 NM)

Boeing sees a two-fold market for its 797. One is crossing water between continents comfortably. Meaning landing in Frankfort from Philadelphia, PA becomes a travel pair. Or could it be Toronto to Paris could be another Pair? The Pacific ocean is a giant pond that may stretch 7,000 miles across. Having a range of only 4,500 miles would make the 797 a companion model to the 787 families of aircraft. Those 797 miles would stay in the Asian and Australian regions with ease but not flying trans-Pacific. 

The second market is for high-density regional flying. Everywhere the A321 goes the 797 will do better. Airbus will have to announce something within six months after Boeing announces in 2019. It sounds like the Paris airshow for the 797 drum roll.

Boeing does plan to build a lighter 797 using everything from all its recent programs. The main feature emerging is passenger comfort. I have long wanted a fifteen-foot wide body with seven seats across in a two-aisle configuration. Space can be had in two classes. Boeing's customers could bring back the 22" wide seats and reminisce about the old days of flying. Expect big windows, lots of storage and new engines. This craft will ooze with innovation and comfort. It will encroach upon both the single-aisle 737 and dual-aisle 787 families of aircraft order books as it wedges in between. In the next five years, Boeing may end up with only two Max Types offered with two 797 types offered. If the 797 nocks it out of the park, the growth potential of the 797 comes from customer marketing innovations, on how it would use its equipment from single-aisle to dual-aisle equipment. 

If the airline industry culture uses the 797 for regional high-density routes, then the 737 Max will have a more balanced looking order book as the 797 reconfigures an airlines business case. The 797 is expected to cause a lot of marketplace disruption worldwide. Originally the 787-300 was going to be that "airplane", but the market wasn't ready for that "disrupter" back in the time ANA was looking at the 787-300 aircraft. Much time has passed and many technologies have emerged making a 797 a better case for the market than a 787-300 did back in 2010.

An Article worth reading from:AirlineRatings

"THE PLANE PASSENGERS WILL LOVE – THE 797 – IS GETTING MUCH CLOSER.

By

 Geoffrey Thomas

October 17, 2018

Cabin mock-up of the Boeing 7J7 of 1990, very similar to what the 797 will be like . However the 797 will have far more advanced overhead styling.

Airline interest in the yet to be launched Boeing 797 – a plane passengers will love – is growing and the industry expects the Seattle giant to commit it to production next year.

According to New York-based analysts, Bernstein “airline interest in the New Mid-Size Airplane (NMA or 797) is clearly growing, but the demand will be highly dependent on pricing.”

The new report “Commercial Aircraft: High demand, delivery delays, engine challenges, easy money – Themes from Prague ISTAT Conference” states that “Boeing reiterated that it likes the concept, but that it has not yet been able to close on the business case.”

SEE Amazing video of new Boeing VIP interior. 

The analysts said that the design appears to be firming, according to many customers at a 2-3-2 cross-section with a composite fuselage and wing.

The key issue here is can Boeing build a far more comfortable plane for the passenger at a price that is competitive with currently cramped single-aisle designs on offer.

The 797 would have twice the overhead bin space, two aisles and most passengers would have an aisle or window seat.

Or put another way will passengers pay a bit extra to fly on the 797 to justify its higher cost to build? The rise and rise of premium economy suggests that “yes” is the answer.

Boarding of single-aisle aircraft is becoming a nightmare particularly in the US where the trend is for passengers to bring all their luggage onboard with them.

This is a major problem as the overhead bins are not large enough and the drama surrounding getting the luggage into the overhead slows the boarding process to a crawl.

Verbal fights often break out over “luggage space.”

Bernstein reports that “Boeing has said it will make a launch decision in 2019 and entry into services (EIS) would be in 2025.”

In June Boeing defined two versions – the NMA-6 (797-6) with 228-passenger, 4,500nm (8,300km) and the NMA-7 (797-7) which would seat 267 in two classes with 4,200nm range.

The 797-6 would be launched first, followed by the larger 797-7. Range appears to be closing in on 4,500 nm (8300km), says Bernstein. This range allows it to do the vast majority of routes that Asian airlines currently fly with A330s as well as most interesting trans-Pacific routes and all trans-Atlantic routes.

“By not pushing the range further, the NMA should reduce weight and be able to have an engine that can be optimized for more high-cycle usage than the engines used on the A330,” said Bernstein.

Boeing is in stealth mode with executives “mum” on any more details.

Boeing sees the market at about 5000 planes over 20 years. And what is more important they see the 797 as a stimulus to the market creating thousands of new routes, thus new business.

The company says there are 30,000 city pairs currently not linked that would be perfect for the 797.

“The 797 will be like a 787 on steroids,” one UK financial analyst told Airlineratings.com. “It will open up routes everywhere.

The compelling business case for the 797 is that it is designed to fit between the smaller and sshort-range 737/A320 aircraft and the much larger, heavier and longer range 787/A330 types.

The UK analysts said his “sources tell me they [Boeing} are almost there and they are really excited about this aircraft.”

“They expect it to be produced at much higher rates than the 787.”

The massive appeal of the 797 will be its passengers cross section of 2-3-2 with huge overhead luggage bins which will put an end to the economy crush.

The 797 will be a made of composite material like the 787 and it will be able to economically connect hundreds of new non-stop routes between smaller cities.

Earlier this year Boeing moved one of its top engineers Terry Beezhold, to the program signaling that it is very serious about the aircraft.

Mr. Beezhold has had lead roles in the 787 and was project engineer on the ultra-long-range 777X, which will fly next year.

Boeing and its legacy company, McDonnell Douglas both touted a similarly sized aircraft – 7J7 and ATMR – as early as 1980. However, at the time aircraft seating was more spacious and passenger’s carry-on very limited and airlines couldn’t make the business case.

The image below is a publicity from McDonnell Douglas showing the difference between its then proposed ATMR with the Boeing 757 which is virtually identical in cross-section to today’s 737/A320.

Fast forward to 2018 and passenger seating is far more cramped and the demand for overhead space far greater than a single aisle capacity allows.

The 797 with a 2-3-2 configuration means passengers will have more room regardless of the seat pitch and the overhead bin space will be massive.

Another plus will be that boarding and deplaning will be much faster."

Boeing's Entree Vs Airbus Buffet

Both makers have taken a different tac is this aviation Cup races. The Boeing corporation offers a direct family of aircraft with 787's and Airbus who lacked a complete A-350 by offering only attacking buyers for its A-350-900 and A350-1000 also offers a downwind price for its family of A-330 NEO's, the 800 and 900 versions. Sales have been meek for the low end as just only Kuwait has ordered 8 of the A330-800 NEO. Before there were none on order for Airbus.

The takeaway is what this order means in the broader sense. Airbus has succeeded with its market philosophy. Spread the market with a plethora of types like a buffet,  where Boeing offers exact menu items for customer entrees. What this means is the Airbus marketing has established a market niche through a true buffet offering. Nothing is quite as good as the main menu item and everything is covered for what a customer may want. On the other hand, Boeing is reading market its surveys and offering 6 oz steaks for airline pallets. It sounds like a Sizzler marketing seminar. Offer a salad bar or steak off the menu completing an Airbus/Boeing market coverage.

Here is an opinion, Boeing company builds the 787 to bookend Airbus' buffet offering. The 787 is the steak. The A-330 NEO is the salad bar. Airbus also offers a 20oz steak for $19.99 with its A-350. Having more steak, more calories and more money than a Boeing 787. Then Airbus comes in with its A-330 NEO salad bar for beating the Boeing 8oz steak from its 787 menus. What a mess for a family of five wanting a good eating value. The A350 is too much airplane and money for that proverbial family and the salad bar (A330 NEO) is a lacking immensely for children who just want hamburger and fries from a drive-in. 

The Airbus-A-330 NEO salad bar/steak 

The A-350 Seat Maker 20 oz Steak

So I compare Boeing to a Texas Road House menu and Airbus to a Sizzler menu. Kuwait just went for the salad bar ordering 8 A-330NEO-800's.  It's because Airbus offered a price it couldn't refuse selling an adequate airframe from the A330 NEO barn. It not about who builds what at this point, but it's how the kids in the back seat react when the parents chose where to go on eating out where mom needs a break. Kuwait has chosen the A330NEO as an affordable bridge to an ultimate entree style airline.  

A Boeing 787 Texas Road House Steak

The F-35 Has Fly Paper On Its Wings

Every journalist who uses its craft to express how intelligent they are writing negatively about the F-35 and how useless it is. Well, I've been reading too! That makes me smarter than a fifth grader except the pay falls way short of journalistic adversaries when it comes to the F-35. But reading counts for something except I haven't gone to all those airshows making me an expert. I once read about an F-16 pilot who beat an electronically hobbled F-35. I also read about its problems, lower airspeed. You know airspeed makes it so much like a shooting star from seventy years ago. It can't vector up or down or left or right. It isn't a good fighter for airshow purposes. It can't go faster than Mach 1.6.

So I asked myself how pointless is that? No supercruise, no nine G turning and certainly glitching is its most prominent weapon of choice. The US Airforce, in response to its lack fourth generation constructs, has sprayed sticky stuff on its wings so the journalist has something to say how intelligent they are about the F-35 and that's their story and they are sticking to it. The flypaper application to its F-35 wings gives journalistic sticking power. They have been "boofed" and it shows.

Every journalist who uses its craft to express how intelligent they are writing negatively about the F-35 and how useless it is. Well, I've been reading too! That makes me smarter than a fifth grader except the pay falls way short of journalistic adversaries when it comes to the F-35. But reading counts for something except I haven't gone to all those airshows making me an expert. I once read about an F-16 pilot who beat an electronically hobbled F-35. I also read about its problems, lower airspeed. You know airspeed makes it so much like a shooting star from seventy years ago. It can't vector up or down or left or right. It isn't a good fighter for airshow purposes. It can't go faster than Mach 1.6.

The whole point of the F-35 is that is not an all-weather, all-purpose and all everything Joint air-to-air fighter. It was built to house computers and sensors. Those same sensors and computers that were not operational when it flew past an F-16 in testing. The F-16 could fly circles around the F-35 and shoot it down. It just beat a bi-plane called an F-35 and it showed. It gave Russia and China something to crow about.  We can build "a super stealth bi-plane that goes Mach 2+ with supercruise in its engines. 

"Watch! What we can do at a Szechwan airshow were people clap in unison as directed?"

"All we did was hang pepper about its snout and it worked great."

The PA system echoes, "The F-35 can't go Mach 1.71 nor can it turn in a tighter circle than a circle can be tight. We have supercruise where without going to afterburner. We can get into harm's way faster than an F-35", and so goes the droning on by the intelligentsia with a journalistic paycheck. It has broken down 5,283 times by a clear mile so goes any sensible reading expert. 

So! "I put together some talking points what the Airforce has really built that everyone has missed the point on during the last dozen years and it’s not about invisibility.

·      The F-35 is a flying computer which should not vector here or there.

·      The F-35 wants a milli-second advantage because the computers work in milliseconds.

·      The advantage comes from its weapons truck not a trick pony at the airshow.

·      New weapons are built every six months which are plugged into airframes. 

·      Its the missile systems and computers doing the fighting.

·      The F-35 needs to hide like a concealed weapon

After examining these talking points, the F-35 quickly takes shape. Hide and shoot like a gang member. Marching as a formation doesn't win the fight. The year 1776 proved this point when the British fought against the Patriots at Concorde  It was a long and deadly walk back to Boston for those British troops. American forces have been behaving that way since the US revolutionary war. The F-35 doesn't want to dog-fight at all, otherwise, it would be missing the point. The Art of War is in deception and the F-35 program has fooled so many by its perceived flaws.  

Note this:

·      There are many F-35 problems in its development

·      Computers have upgrades, please turn on your computer and see what upgrades load up today.

·      It isn't a fourth Generation fighter with a club

·      It's a fifth-generation commanding shootist that hides really well.

·      Thinking is what it is built for.

·      Getting to the battlespace makes it more of a truck than a sports car.

·      Being in the pole position isn't necessary since it already punched your ticket at the gate.

Once you discern its specialty then you get the F-35. The best question is how many are needed and a follow-on question what's next?

Backlog Indicators Boeing - Airbus 9/30

As a guide to Aviationphiles, the below charts show relative backlog between Boeing and Airbus for the period ending 9/30/2018. Notes below this opening are for your convenience, indicates Boeing is slowing closing the backlog gap in the single-aisle category. Boeing having 4,714 units to deliver as compared with the Airbus tally of 6,301units. The $billions in comparison give Airbus the relative dollar backlog lead. It is also important to note Airbus absorbed the Bombardier single-aisle backlog as part of its accounting lump totals. The also hides Boeing's progress with its single-aisle gap with Airbus who has a very strong backlog for A321's where Boeing has answered with newly offered 737-Max 9's and 10's. If Boeing can add an Embraer single-aisle count to its book through a merger, currently in the works, and it continues to book the 737 Max at the same pace it has over the last couple of order cycles, then it will catch Airbus single-aisle backlog in this class. Boeing is within striking distance of meeting the Airbus, $170 billion, single-aisle order advantage when all things are considered.

Wide body is Boeing's strong suit. It beats Airbus in backlog dollars by $30 Billion. When The Embraer merging is complete and using this $30 dollar WB buffer, Boeing should have caught Airbus in both total units and dollar value for its respective backlogs. Enjoy the numerical comparisons, as this is only an estimation using dynamic order and production books while using some assumptions when data is not available which may slightly differ from Boeing's own reporting. All data is based on both the Airbus and Boeing's reporting websites ending 9-30-2018.

Boeing and Airbus Order and Delivery Notes Through 9-30-2018

·      Boeing nets 631 net orders for YTD  all types Airbus

·      Airbus trails Orders YTD with 311 net orders

·      Boeing exceeds 100 net YTD orders for the 787 totaling 104

·      Airbus slips further with its A-350 only netting 36 ordered YTD

·      Boeing books a net YTD  448 single-aisle 737 with a preponderance for ordering the 737, Max.

·      Airbus books only a net of 198 Single-aisle YTD

What does this all mean? Airbus is in second place on the last straight stretch. In horse races, a well strategic race will have the second place horse pass the lead by a nose at the finish line. Airbus typically sandbags orders (holds back) for a December 31 announcement. Last year it dumped hundreds and hundreds of orders in the announcement bin in the 2017 eleventh hour. If Boeing can retain some orders for a December announcement the game is afoot as Sherlock Holmes quips.

The bragging rights of most orders is a tenuous proposition. Many an order could be rated as risky, as many an airline will cease to exist before receiving the first delivery on its mature order. It is imperative to classify order quality and make a risk assessment for all orders booked. An example would be if an ACME airline order is riskier than a United Airline order for reaching full completion. This is an unreported condition and does not contribute to Bragging rights at the end of any given year. Thus a rating system for orders should be based on order risk which can be both subjective and objective through a proven metric table.

The airplane buying metric or indicators would include financial ratings from market success in an airline's business plan including an analysis with its history for achieving its objectives. So one could see it becomes very complicated analyzing a batch of indicators on strength of an order book. Those indicators used could be a subjective choice in itself. Therefore, the current market status is the only sensible way to bet on the actual winning horse and Boeing has a strong lead for the 2018 orders race. It is a foregone conclusion Boeing will win the world's largest airplane maker this year as its product has just started to hit high gear after a production slump mid-year. Airbus has too many problems itself on the production floor as its suppliers are having some production woes on its own.

Airbus needs about another 600 net orders to catch Boeing by year's end, while Boeing could amass only 300 additional new orders by December 31, 2018, and beat Airbus just the same. The race for orders is wide open while deliveries may take a hurricane to stop Boeing winning that battle.

The F-35 May Not Be Invisible But...

When I was a youngster I played in the basement of a big building with interlocking rooms and hallways. It was a massive game of hiding and seeking with my brother. The F-35 was over hyperbole for its "invisibility". However, the black room theory is better suited for the F-35. All your senses are needed to find it. However, all the F-35 senses have your number. Who will win? By sure capability, the F-35 will. In that black room, I had to use hearing and not much more to find my adversary. The F-35 could be better than a bat flying in the dark battlespace. Invisibility is a strong description, but very "limited" detection is the best reference for the F-35 limited vulnerabilities. If the fastest jet pilot reads this, they are already dead by line two in italics above.

Hearing only a moving chair in a dark room becomes a bad assumption in a dark room. Looking at ghosts on a radar screen is a bad technique for defeating an F-35. The F-35 is the darkroom warrior with super sensitive windows to its armaments. The adversary only has hearing in that dark room while the F-35 has its digital number for any of its adversaries, which is processed by a supercomputer, (at the speed of light) from its multiple layers of sensors. The F-35 can only go mach 1.6. But its computer's goes much faster than a speeding missile. The F-35 pilot only "Trusts in Processing", and bam, an F-35 missile finds its target in that proverbial dark room.

Remembering A 797 Airplane

Boeing a long time ago suggest building the "Middle of the Market" airplane. It would be somewhere between a 737 and 787 aircraft, tending towards a dual aisle composition. What happened? It's not been announced, nor has the press covered anything 797 for a few months and that's just fine with Boeing. It has said all it's going to say for some time. Lessons learned from the 787 programs allowed Airbus to dampen Boeing's aspirations as it quickly announced its A-350 just after the 7E7 came to the Boeing show and tell at an airshow near Paris.

The silence for the 797 ideas is deafening. It almost looks like Boeing has purposefully changed its tactics towards Airbus by not announcing and let Airbus sell copious numbers of A-321's over the next five years. The suspicion grows it is building a 797 in secret from its CAD machines. The computers are sophisticated enough to design and fly a concept on a big computer screen, in some kind of simulation alter reality. Now Boeing has probably already done a 797 computer mock-up with its vast proven technologies, so the trial and error portion has been skipped. Boeing just needs to build a flying example in a warehouse near the space needle.

Boeing has lined up at least 500 orders from customers loyal to anything Boeing. Naming "Launch Customers" are a bigger problem than any engine selection. About getting an engine is another step progression. Boeing has the Leap for the 737 and the GE for its 787. Those companies are not standing still as Boeing would be in 40,000 to 50,000 thrust range for a super lean burning and quieter engine than what is currently flying. Selecting an engine is as difficult as selecting a launch customer.

The process remains behind closed doors and Boeing will not utter a thing until it can hang an engine on a prototypical 797. It already has a plan to stuff the "Bus" with all things Boeing in a plug and play fashion from its design Bureau, but it needs time for its ultimate strategy of gaining five years on Airbus from its order campaign. When Boeing announces the 797 it will be in Paris and it just might fly-in for a look-see, for all the customers to be amazed.

Airbus will counter but it will be five years too late. The airplane "other-shoe" will have dropped. The only way Boeing can steal the market back is through a surprise reveal at the biggest stage. But that is for risk takers and Boeing is risk adverse except if it called a 787. However,  the 797 is put back into its box for another day. Boeing is on a rampant errand on a white steed and it will lance the windmill one more time with its 797. Risk aversion is job one on the CAD machine. Once all 797 problems have been shredded the announcement will follow allowing Airbus some time in a thoughtful repose for a reflexive move. The wind won't shift for Airbus because that lance is stuck firm tilting its aspiration out of the picture. Don Quixote has a plan. 

Boeing 787 3RD Quarter 2018 Recap

Boeing absorbed 9 more 787-9's from United today, as announced. Not knowing whether it's in September or October the below chart includes the latest 787 numbers I have without eventual validation.

 The quarter over quarter tracker for 2018 recaps the 787 year-to-date at 105 net 787's ordered.

Below are yearly program recaps including 2018 YTD orders and deliveries as of September 30, additionally, it includes YTD compilations for all program years completed.

Boeing Wins The TX-50 Trainer Competition

Boeing has just won another big get with its Trainer-X program. Over 351 trainers will be built by Boeing beating both Lockheed/KAI and Leonardo of Italy with its T-100 offering. It's a 9.2 billion dollar deal where it could possibly build many more hundreds going into the future.

Boeing Wins Big Chopper Battle

Boeing will take an order for 84 of its MH-139 in a co-shared program with Leonardo. Below is a snippet of the win and copter replacing the aged Huey's from the Vietnam war era.

The 787-10 Is A Graphic Center Of Travel

Airline strategies have expanded both ends of the scale. Ultra Long Range to regional travel. Those extremes are marked by the A-350 ULR flown by Singapore Airlines and the 737 flown by Southwest Airlines. A graphics display is rendered, intersecting passenger load, distance, and market density. During the formative years of education a class, most of us readers endured, was geometry. Lines intersect an optimal value. This is what Boeing has done with its 787-10. It's not a long thin route hopper like the Singapore A350-ULR nor is it a 737 Max 8 flying to Las Vegas from Minneapolis. It is optimized for 330 passengers going 6,400 miles. 

Most routes travel the world within 6,400 miles and most passenger densities fall within that band. You may call the 787-10 a generalist, meeting the business model of most airlines. The 777X and the A-350ULR are specialists with a limited thin market. Connecting Singapore with NewYork is a very long thin route. However, Singapore Airlines has ordered 49 787-10's and taken delivery for 6 of its type. It has only ordered seven A350-900 ULR's, hence the long thin route commitment and it will launch its first A-350-900ULR this week to Newark, NJ. 

Singapore happens to be in a 5,000-mile circle of the world's most dense population centers. EVA air has ordered 18 787-10's residing in Taiwan opposite of China.

The coincidence of 787-10 capability and population density concentration is no accident. These two airlines have ordered almost 40% of the 787-10's currently booked by Boeing. When the Emirates order is booked by 40 more 787-10 the balance will rise to 51% of the 787-10 ordered by three airlines. Singapore, EVA, and Emirates, totaling 107 787-10 airframes out of 211 787-10 booked.

The real potential is the whole world where 80% of airline travel resides within a  6,400-mile route circle. The long thin route is rapidly becoming saturated and both Boeing and Airbus will want more orders sooner rather than later. However, the market lies within the 6,400-mile route circle and Boeing has that covered as it prepares to deliver 787-10's to United Airlines sooner rather than later.

Expect more 787-10 orders by Airlines plying European airspace. It would safe to say the order book count for the 787-10 may rise to 300 units instead of its current 171 numbers during 2019. Airlines that may be targeted for a 787-10 order have already been contacted and these may include Delta and American to name a few.

Board Room Question: Will The 787 Deliver 144 in 2018?

I would say no up front but... there are certain objectives to consider.

• Will Hainen find finances for its 787's that are ready for delivery?
• Can Boeing make 14 787 a month during October November, and December of 2018?
• Does Boeing have a packed parking lot of 787 at this moment? 

So far Boeing has delivered 94 of its 787 far short of 144. More like 50 short of that number at this point. If Boeing gets its customer, Hainan Airlines, to have a delivery by end of September, the number will stack up like this. It has already delivered 6 out of 15 scheduled for September. It needs another 9 delivered by the end of the month for 15 total, and Hainan is the lynchpin. If it does occur, then Boeing has only to deliver in the next ninety days or so, another 41 787's by December 31, 2018.

If Boeing produces 14 a month through December it can meet its goal of 144 units delivered during 2018. A slightly lumpy production record suggests Boeing needs to drain its parking lot of 787's waiting for completion and delivery. The recent Hurricane Florence took a little momentum out of Boeing's sails but is just now getting back on its production track. Fourteen a month delivered is possible but unlikely.

Not having an actual parking lot count makes this a difficult call but judging by Everett and Charleston's current parking lot valet, it is safe to say Boeing has at least six frames awaiting customers not mentioned or named Hainan.

The chances of Boeing meeting these aggressive objectives is a fifty-fifty proposition. Given Boeing's capability, it is a do-able achievement, but given external haphazard conditions, Boeing is at a high risk of delivering only in the 130's rather than 144 787 units this year. Every day is worth watching the delivery numbers as the Boeing ship of production and delivery slowly gains speed. It has the ability to make its goal but time has narrowed the risk factors in it not achieving a fourteen a month delivery goal in the fourth quarter.

"Bigger Navy" Seeks Smaller Cruiser

The DDG 1000 or Zumwalt Class ship and Arleigh Burke Destroyer are the main bread and butter ship if the Navy. Since the Zumwalt is more of a test bed than a frontline warship, a new cruiser is in the discussion. The most recent Navy cruiser is called the Ticonderoga class from the 1980's. A New cruiser design the Navy may want is a course correction from the modern Zumwalt tumblehome hull design. Below are rough comparisons the Navy will be working with going to an all-new cruiser with a Winging It estimation for a Ticonderoga type replacement as shown Below.

   
The first topic for change is a new hull. The Navy wants a new hull thus eliminating the current Arleigh-Burke and Zumwalt hulls. The second item under review is stealth capability. A new cruiser may forego some stealth and rely more on combat sensor fusion from satellite to ship and defensive laser guns canceling the need for a fishing boat size of the electronic signature. The thought maybe "we are right here, come and get us" so the hull design will be based on optimal function more than having a stealth-like capability. The thought may come to, "you can't hide a carrier because we don't have to."

A cruiser may follow the carrier philosophy having systems adequate enough taking out any attack from above or beneath the surface and stealth is an expense better spent on weaponry. Speed and endurance may be the primary changes made to the cruiser. Not as many will be built as an Arleigh-Burke or LCS were built but it doesn't have to have numbers. The purpose of a cruiser may become an ocean region focal point where it manages all military assets while traveling fast looking for that opportunity to Marshall military assets. It will have a battle punch itself! Submarine warfare will have a high priority in its suite.

The hull will be designed for speed and space as the battle nerve needs to move quickly as carrier groups ply the seas. It will become the quarterback for the destroyer groups escorting a Gerald Ford class carrier. It could be the F-35 of the high seas with its own suite of sensor fusion. If you miss the battleships from WWII then buy the board game.

The Zumwalt is the pilot hole for the next cruiser. The Arleigh-Burke are the lessons learned as the battlefront changes.

Another talking point is propulsion. Could it be a nuclear-powered machine? That is a strategic question. Fossil fuels can power a ship for about ten thousand miles and then require a fill-up. If a ship is in service for 40 years that is a lot of fossil fuel that may be not around when the ship progressive through its lifetime of service. In a time of war, oil access becomes a weapon. A nuclear warship includes a bulky space for a reactor. But a mass of petroleum is no longer needed for its operation. This is a concept where better military minds can determine a direction on how to use fuel. If a cruiser is few in numbers like the carriers then there are many questions about how much the Cruiser will do in an over-arching warfare mode. Or how important the cruiser becomes because of new capabilities installed. As stated earlier complete stealth is being traded out for speed and size having weapons capabilities for neutralizing adversarial weapons. It will take another 15 years before a ne cruiser type is deployed and could be a replacement for the Destroyers with fewer numbers. 

Boeing's Objectives Reveals A Fragile Outflow

Whether there is a hurricane or financial problems, Boeing has exposed a vulnerability with its high minded goals. They want to produce 12, 787 a month, straining suppliers and customers alike. In July Boeing could only deliver eight of its 787. In August Boeing delivered another eight. It’s already September 19, 2018, and the month only reveals four of its 787 delivered.

In total, since July first, Boeing has delivered 20 787's where a prorated pacing suggest it should have delivered at least thirty 787's during this time span. There are 10 787's not delivered, suggesting $2 billion in revenue missed since July 1, 2018. The stockholders are getting nervous, the day traders are jumping around the market like jumping beans.

A Chinese buyer has reached a financial box and can't fund delivery on two more 787's. Supplier problems arise in a seasonal fashion all that with Hurricane Florence. Boeing has reached a perfect storm. Production is slowed to a walk instead of its usual run. Like all convergences, it passes. Boeing will help solve its 787 supply chain hiccup and a customer’s financial plight. Water does run downhill and Charleston once again will have to spray for bug abatement after its swamps lose some water. It will take Boeing until Christmas to make its own perfect storm to cease and fair weather returns. The productivity lost will crawl back with a few deliveries missing in action as it had predicted a robust production year. It now appears it may deliver about four short of its goal by year's end.

Day trader alert, go fishing until December 15, 2018, and then buy Boeing at year-end after all this nonsense becomes a bad memory and someone on the top floor lost a bonus. That's how the corporate world works, there are ludicrous bonuses at stake and a position to continue holding until the golden parachute delivers near a top floor window.

Boeing may delivery 17 units in a month but it needs several months in a row with 17 787'delivered to make up ground before year's end. The Boeing plant parking lot could save the day if enough airplanes store outside awaiting delivery. Delivery is at a different pace than production and that's Boeing story and they are sticking to it. The perfect storm is only a movie and Boeing is making movement happen. They will still fall short but beat Airbus for this year's World's Largest Airplane Maker Award. It happens and how you scrape it off is how you roll!

777X Shows Up as A Test Article

777X Video Ready For Testing

The Cheesy reporting is all about Big and Beautiful but a very good look at the 777X exterior of the airplane.

Note: wait for it to load it takes a few seconds.

797 Is Just Where Boeing Wants It To Be "Finding 797"

The devil is in the details and that is what Boeing is doing with its NMA 797 concept,. making details It's supposed to be:q

 "BOEING SEES `797′ HAVING 40% LOWER TRIP COSTS VS COMPETITION"

The gauntlet has been thrown down without a weapon in sight. Boeing has 40 engineers turned loose a Spirit and they aren't widdling 797 sticks for trade shows. It's been a while since Winging It has uttered an opinion about the 797 programs, so.  now is a good time to look at the 797 program prospects and other stuff. 

It dawned on me that Airbus hasn't closed on some big deals announced at Farnborough this last summer. I suppose as Airbus habit to flood end of December for a rush of orders thus frustrating Boeing once again at the end of the year as the 2nd place  for order numbers. However, Boeing is playing the game this year and it has the upper hand. The first indicator is Boeing has secured 581 net orders by the end of August where Airbus has only 219 net orders to show for its efforts. Boeing has been storing commitments like a squirrel's winter cache. Big bodied orders lay about awaiting some kind of year ending announcement. Emirates hasn't added its committed forty 787-10. Nor has Boeing indicated how many EVA air has up its sleeve for the same model. Even though Boeing has confirmed its Farnborough order foray into a market lead during 2018 it still remains that several hundred more orders are pending an end of year announcement or an Airshow splash. In one sort month from November 12-16, there is a Dubai Airshow, and perhaps Emirates is waiting for that week to make Boeing's day. It's also conceivable EVA air will roll out the execs for the show and compliment emirates on its taste for 787-10's. If sixty 787 units are announced it would complete Boeing's year.

If Boeing does manage a hundred or more orders next month at the show, it would push the 2018 order total to about 600 units for the year. I wouldn't expect Airbus will have a big show standing for its orders. They are still struggling since those heady days at Farnborough. Airbus would like Air AsiaX to deliver some A330NEO confirmations before year's end after saying it would buy up to a hundred A-330-900 NEO's at the show. The number is fishy and a firm count is hard to come by as different news organizations say different "things" about the deal. The one fact is Airbus own website says 219 net orders for 2018 and Air AsiaX is listed anywhere as of August 31, 2018.  Timing is everything and Boeing could firm up another 100 787's by year's end over what it has already net booked for 2018 (96) 787's.

Airbus needs several grand slams to catch Boeing by year's end. Now moving towards the 797 and its announcement. Boeing is expensing real money on the program at this time. It takes 40 engineers about $8 million in payroll to draw CAD pictures in St. Louis, MO not counting the office building in Seattle, Wa for the 797 program masthead. The total bill for the 797 programs could be $20 million a year at this time and this doesn't count travel expenses for all those trips to customers Boeing is making. Add another $10 million to the 797 tabs.

The 797 has started its money pit several years back and its growing every day. The R & D division is more than a placeholder for Idle dreams. It is a real deal for siphoning resources and impressing launch customers. The Paris Airshow looks to be where the 797 aviation concepts will land as the biggest sideshow for the event. Or it may be the main event for 2019. If Airbus books 600 orders by year's end it will be a satisfactory year. The annual backlog event will give Boeing a chance to gloat as it closes the backlog the Boeing-Airbus gap by several hundred units this year as Boeing cheers the results

Counter War Ahead Of War

Adversarial nations to the US can't make an F-35 because they cannot expend its resources making a copy of a fifth-generation fighter like the F-35.

However, war-making programs fall behind countermeasure making elements costing billions and years of process obsolescence for war-making. Another way of putting it, it's taking years to make an F-35 while costing over a trillion dollars for its program life and in the meantime potential adversarial nations are developing faster and cheaper countermeasures against the F-35. Russia has reached the point of almost mothballing its SU-57 fifth-generation fighter because it can't seem to put it together fast enough having the full capability at a price it can afford. India has dropped out of the SU-57 program, a key contributor to its financial and technical components.

America, with a bottomless checkbook, can no longer keep pace with its own ideas for warfare. The F-35 goes on without a rival. The Chinese j-20 j-31 are rapidly becoming a paper tiger as it looks for a suitable engine powering its fifth-generation paper multirole fighter fleet.

These issues are pushing the countermeasure realm ahead of the war-making realm. It's cheaper and faster program time for developing long-range AA missiles and detection systems are a way of defeating the F-35 or F-22 American fighter jets, rather than making a comparable a fifth generation multi-role fighter for themselves.

However, the US is also developing countermeasures for fifth-generation fighters. Its vast satellite and technological advances are rendering foreign fifth generation fighters a lost cause for money spent and time allowed for war-making development. The real battle is being won in the ivory castles with window shades. The R&D segment must replace its military composition every generation while an F-35 is taking more than a generation of time to deploy, but in this case, money is no object. The adversarial players are constrained both by money and a workable technological advance within a time frame.

Hence a counter warfare evolution manifests itself through ramjet or missile technology for foreign nations. The "new" technology will be laser fired munitions exacting a toll on speed and numbers offered foreign powers. A laser realm will target anything flying that is mechanical under the speed of light. The US is rapidly making laser energy available for the F-35, warships and every other kind of war-making device generating energy. Laser technology is on the clock but will be complimenting traditional units of the Army, Navy, and Airforce by about 2025. Time is on the side of the US, in this case, as it deploys its F-35 or Columbia Class "Boomer" submarine. Money is the key weapon of war and countermeasures to development of new weapons lags behind war-making from the availability of money and the advance of "new" technology.

Boeing is Out pacing Airbus 581 to 219 for Orders YTD

This is a full month after Farnsborough and Airbus have been unable to firm up its Asia orders for its new  NEO derivative offered. It has 219 orders booked for the Airbus YTD However analyzed Boeing has positioned itself to beat Airbus for order number during the next few cycles. It also has positioned its productivity ahead of Airbus for several more cycles. It feels as if the wheels have come of Airbus desires as its leadership changes over to the next traunch of company officers. Boeing with its own troubles is making headway will production hiccups and engine problems. By 2019 they will be ahead of the class for the world scene. When the Embraer deal becomes a reality a serious competition begins with its respective additions Bombardier and Embraer regional aircraft as those companies have aligned with Airbus and Boeing respectively.

Below is a gander at what Boeing has achieved for its orders in 2018.

Boeing has the orders pole position with four months to go. Its 581 net orders found in the lower right-hand corner, indicates a strength in single-aisle and an expanding widebody dominance over Airbus. I always expect Airbus to add additional orders during the last hours of the year as its customs suggests. However, there is a vast backlog of orders for Boeing when noting unfinalized orders during 2018. Boeing could add another 60 787's by years end with an outstanding Emirates 787-10 commitment and another bunch of 787-10's are in the works with EVA air. It doesn't end there as the aggressive Boeing Sales catches Airbus during a time when its own production woes have hit it with little relief. My prediction for the year-end unit tally of 2018 orders; Airbus 500 units; Boeing 850 units ordered. We'll just have to wait and see if this prediction plays as suggested.

Boeing Booked About A Net 99 Aircraft in August.

Either Boeing's website for monthly orders and deliveries is broken or Boeing no longer wants its customers to see what's happening over a month to month process. However, a news reporting link mentions Boeing booked about 90 single-aisle and four other frames (3-787 & 1-777) and with the Hawian order splitting 5 787-9 leases through BCC pushing its net total year to date for 581 orders. No other detail is available.


Reuters 9/11/2018:   <<Link)

Quoting Boeing during recent pressor" "Boeing also said its 2018 net orders totaled 581 aircraft through August, up from 487 toward the end of July. That includes 90 orders in August for 737 variants from leasing firms and unidentified customers." 

Airbus now sits at 219 net orders for all types by the end of August for the year 2018.