Boeing and Airbus Order and Delivery Notes Through 9-30-2018

·      Boeing nets 631 net orders for YTD  all types Airbus

·      Airbus trails Orders YTD with 311 net orders

·      Boeing exceeds 100 net YTD orders for the 787 totaling 104

·      Airbus slips further with its A-350 only netting 36 ordered YTD

·      Boeing books a net YTD  448 single-aisle 737 with a preponderance for ordering the 737, Max.

·      Airbus books only a net of 198 Single-aisle YTD

What does this all mean? Airbus is in second place on the last straight stretch. In horse races, a well strategic race will have the second place horse pass the lead by a nose at the finish line. Airbus typically sandbags orders (holds back) for a December 31 announcement. Last year it dumped hundreds and hundreds of orders in the announcement bin in the 2017 eleventh hour. If Boeing can retain some orders for a December announcement the game is afoot as Sherlock Holmes quips.

The bragging rights of most orders is a tenuous proposition. Many an order could be rated as risky, as many an airline will cease to exist before receiving the first delivery on its mature order. It is imperative to classify order quality and make a risk assessment for all orders booked. An example would be if an ACME airline order is riskier than a United Airline order for reaching full completion. This is an unreported condition and does not contribute to Bragging rights at the end of any given year. Thus a rating system for orders should be based on order risk which can be both subjective and objective through a proven metric table.

The airplane buying metric or indicators would include financial ratings from market success in an airline's business plan including an analysis with its history for achieving its objectives. So one could see it becomes very complicated analyzing a batch of indicators on strength of an order book. Those indicators used could be a subjective choice in itself. Therefore, the current market status is the only sensible way to bet on the actual winning horse and Boeing has a strong lead for the 2018 orders race. It is a foregone conclusion Boeing will win the world's largest airplane maker this year as its product has just started to hit high gear after a production slump mid-year. Airbus has too many problems itself on the production floor as its suppliers are having some production woes on its own.

Airbus needs about another 600 net orders to catch Boeing by year's end, while Boeing could amass only 300 additional new orders by December 31, 2018, and beat Airbus just the same. The race for orders is wide open while deliveries may take a hurricane to stop Boeing winning that battle.