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Friday, February 1, 2019

Airbus Is Making Boeing Do It, The 797, Boeing wins The Trifecta

Long has Airbus Airbus crept up Boeing's market pinnacle. It has done so so while Boeing took notice. By now, most aviation analyst also has noticed Boeing let go of its 757 program and did not address the A321 success. It just so happens Airbus leads Boeing by those same numbers from A-321 orders that Boeing has fallen behind in the single-aisle market. Airbus has taken about 2200 A-321 orders to date which is what its lead is over Boeing in the single-aisle market. 

However, Boeing's wide-bodied foray into the market has saved the Boeing pride while tarnishing the Airbus machismo. The A380 is dying an untimely death as orders have flooded in for the 787 and the A380 is regarded as a White elephant because the capacity required and markets sought, make for poor risk partners. The 787 does not have to load passengers up to 90% each time it flies like the A-380 to make money for the airline flying it. The 787 can fly at 85% capacity and make money all day long. The A380 saga is more of an indicator measuring Airbus mistakes. However, being late to the Wide-body ball hasn't helped Airbus either. The Airbus A350 family remains behind to pick up the WB meat scraps in the aviation kitchen. I am sure the A-1000 would have been a best seller during the 1990s but the 777X is made for the 21st century and it shows. The A-350-1000 may go the way of the dinosaurs or in this case the A350-1000.

The 777X has already amassed more orders than the A350-1000 at this juncture and if Boeing pulls a trifecta out of its engineering hat then Airbus will slowly slide into obscurity with a strong European contingency backing it up and propping it up for a long time. This brings us back to the Boeing Trifecta the 797, 787, and 777X. Its meant to exhaust Airbus down the backstretch while Boeing prepares for its 2030 single-aisle model which is made for production efficiency as much as .operational efficiency.

Boeing tipped its hand with programs that will quickly build at a lower cost doing, more units while Airbus languishes with its tube and stick models. Boeing hasn't announced the 797 yet until it has something to show customers, which leads me to believe in a production facility near Everett Wa is a 797 mock-up awaiting cameras for what it will look like when it is built for the first time. It will feature all the advances in a model for customers to pour over in that warehouse building. The point of a multi-million mock-up is to generate more sales before the big blow out announcement. Boeing wants more the just four hundred launch orders, it wants the market which Airbus could not enter over the next ten years. It wants a "market nullification" placed on Airbus' head since it succeeded with the A-321 and Boeing had no answer for that model. And it has paid dearly for its own blunder in its prideful single-aisle market place. Boeing's 797 is a course correction. Boeing 787 is an artful tack when the wind shifted and the 777X is the best boat flying over ponds bigger than the backyard of most airlines. The Trifecta is not about three horse races it is about one big change of throw down that knife and pick up the automatic gun before someone shoots.

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