Boeing's 797 Hiccup

The long awaited 797 announcement, well, has become "long-awaited". The reasons why are legion. Winging It hopes to enumerate a few of the big stumbling blocks.

• Risk still exceeds reward.
• The timing window has shut.
• The bridge is too far

These are only a few delaying insecurity blankets weighing on Boeing with its decision-making for the 797. The top three are just opinions about what's up with Boeing and the 797 but are valid concerns.

The risk issue is causing Boeing great heartburn. What if Airbus can answer Boeing with an A-321 NEO type offer? What if Boeing's enthusiastic 797 customers back off and move-on-by without ordering the 797 because the customer already has adequate 787's and 737's? The questions keep pounding away at the risk stake and burying the reward portion of the equation. Boeing is on a tetter-totter vacillating back and forth to go all-in or play-it-safe. In my humble opinion, Boeing is too far down the 797 road to back off. They will risk it all for the promise of great reward and call Airbus' bluff building the NMA starting last year.

The timing window was ripe in 2018 but the Boeing wet insecurity blanket stopped them from opening that window of time because of the draft in the house was already a steady breeze. The timing for an announcement was late 2018 as an optimal point in time and now its become almost an afterthought for a 797 announcement which has now lost some market impact when/if it announces a 797 program at a later date. Paris is only a few months away and Boeing could sweep the show with some very large 797 Launch customer orders making the time window wide open again. Boeing will have to revolutionize aviation with this new concept and swoon the market away from Airbus.

Finally is the "Bridge Too Far"? Referring to an old World War II movie of the allies marching through the low country of Europe for capturing bridges on the Rhine river thus ending Germany's pillage of Europe. On the last bridge or the main target, it failed to take the biggest bridge at the Arnhem bridge crossing. Unlike World War II, Boeing's 797 bridge is an integral part of its offensive and without taking the bridgehead it could lose the aviation war. The movie and book emphasized the Bride Too Far war objective was unnecessary. Boeing is hesitating because it can't determine the 797 importance in this case. Boeing must cross the "Rhine river" in order to win the war. Arnhem was not needed to allies. The 797 is needed for Boeing.