The "Sea Change", is the battle between Airbus and Boing with Emirates being the key to this impactful event. Who will win the day? There are before and after scenarios which can be used to out think Emirates position in this matter.
The gauntlet thrown down by Emirates comes from its mid-market correction. The A380 fails to meets Emirates needs for it to be competitive in the wide-body market. The 500+ passenger per plane carrier costs too much for a reasonable return on profit while maintaining its full capacity in order to be consistently profitable for each A380 loaded with 100% capacity loading.
The smaller widebody market makes money from each flight even when carrying an 85% load factor, thus lowering its financial risk from profitable routes and uses. A small wide-bodied aircraft can supplement each trip with an added value freight component when the A350 and 787 are keen to add relatable freight to the aircraft.
UAE is taking a course correction and has about three dozen A380 in the Emirates backlog, as it also added about 20 A380 to the book in 2018 Emirates has recognized the market change and nobody wants the responsibility of keeping a new A380 in shipshape operation. It too is labor and parts intense of a risk to make it spread over route comes with a steep price.
An example comes when a per seat formula illustrates how fast an Airline will lose money when it isn't filled or the set price loses an ability to lower its seat price. The math problem begins to evolve in this way. Each seat makes $100 per seat no matter the airplane type. The Airbus has about 550 seats it could fill. The A350 has about 375 seats and 787 could have 330 seats. Now the rough and dirty number will show how difficult the A380 is tough to fill it to its capacity is killing the program and Emiirate is Airbus' best buyer of its most expensive airplane.
When just good enough wasn't a leap far beyond its competitor, Boeing. Airbus will retire the production schedule of its A380. The remaining outstanding orders it has for the A380 are the usual suspects of airlines that are those dubious customers with an uncertain financial position. Qantas just canceled its last 8 unfilled A-380's orders by a major airline. The A-380 end is on the final approach. A hail mary toss from Emirates is too late. It too is in discussions on how to convert its outstanding A-380 order it made just last year. Airbus would gain some A350 orders at the expense of A-380 orders ditched. Boeing would like to slip in some 777Xs with a 797 caveat. It looks more certain Emirates will go with Airbus' A-350s out of a professional "courtesy" and a low ball price. Boeing is in no position to lowball its 777X or "797" (under a study conditioned unannounced new NMA type)
A Being "just good enough undercuts" a competitive philosophy in a free market environment. Big corporations need to step up and the 787 was that attempt, hence the A-350 and so forth. The grapple comes from the conflict of just good enough against a quantum leap above the competitor when introducing a new product, therefore expectations are set for something special for the 777X and any other follow-on from Airbus as well. The A321LR has the pole position in the market from its base customers of the A-321. The 797, if announced, is designed for ending the A-321 reign using better is best tactics.
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