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Sunday, February 3, 2019

Emirates One Of The World's Largest Airlines

"We" are in negotiation with both Airbus and Boeing for fleet renewal, so says Emirates. However, The A 380 is the odd airplane out of these negotiations. The main airplanes on the docket for discussions are for the Boeing 787-10s and Boeing 777X which has already firmed up launch customer numbers of 35 777-8X and 115 9X for a total of 150 777X. It also left open a tender of 40 787-10's which is not finalized for strategic reasons. The Airbus company would do anything to stop a 787-10 order placement. Emirates is in the market for buying A350-900's and 1000's for a very generous Airbus quote and blocking the 787-10 LOI deal standing by. Can't really tell how Emirates will divide its order pie but one thing is sure, Airbus has flubbed its A380 deal-making for the near term. 

Emirates is the launch customer for the 777X with 150 of its types ordered. It may want another 20 if a great sell-off begins with A-380 disassembling the Emirate A-380 fleet footprint. It will take another 20 777X to fill the passenger gap that Emirates will have created by retiring the A-380 first. But Emirates loves big board gamesmanship and more is in play with the manufacturers and with Emirates than can possibly meet the eye. 

First, there is the leveraging of order price downward when holding one manufacturer against the other.

Secondly is the world prestige over owning the most advanced big airplane. The 777X would be that Airplane while the A-380 slides to a weak second place traveling secondary routes as it slides down in interest in from its early immense start. The 787-10 is so new it could revolutionize an airline quickly.

Thirdly, Emirates wants Boeing back to the negotiation table when Airbus pleads for its A-330-900NEO and A350's. It may already be happening for those forty 787-10 intents. 

Commonly phrased, "if we can agree to new options language, new pricing structure, or even build slots thrown in during a year over year build guarantee, let's go back and do it."  

If Boeing goes back to Emirates to sort out the death of the A-380 and assist on the following Emirates fleet renewal plan, expect to see major gamesmanship following this situation for years to come. It may change how both Boeing and Airbus will take no prisoners over any deal-making.  Boeing has already shown an aggressive sales style for 2018. 

Boeing is only one plane type away from filling its complete dance card with the worldwide airlines. The 797 is more import as a market big hit than just another airplane because it provides type completeness. Boeing wants this so desperately to hit it this out of the park before making a 797 commitment. Boeing is not ready with its Boeing data on the project progression so it seems Boeing is waiting for an engine decision and that will take an additional 12 months.

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