The Australian Business Traveler wrote about how Qantas may not pick up all its 45 787-9 options into the future. Qantas has changed since those heady days when when it was a Boeing order star in 2005. That was during the early introduction of the 787 program. Since then, things have changed. Qantas has become a stalwart bell-weather of airline control by its leader Alan Joyce.
The conservative approach has muffled high aspirations of its world dominance theme from Australia. Qantas had to make adjustments for getting its financial books in order before anything was changed. The existing fleet had to last until a corporate turn-around was achieved.
Qantas' conservative approach has done just that and it just has received its first 787-9 from an option pool turned firm order of eight aircraft. Its option book only has 45 more aircraft it could turn into deliveries at a set price when buying aircraft and extras. The Australian Business Traveler says it may not happen.
Winging It happens to agree with the article from a different perspective or from a different emphasis mentioned in the article. The standing option is just a starting point for this company twelve years later. A lot has changed since the initial deal with Boeing. Qantas flooded its off-shoot, Jet Star, with a fleet of 787-8's. It was a work-around for a beleaguered Qantas at the time. The Jet Star fleet performed as advertised and Qantas took note of the success. Jet Star's mission was not to step on the Qantas toes or try to become a world beater.
As mentioned before much has changed since those days. The 747 is no longer "needed", its retired. The world's aviation playing field has evolved. Many airlines now crisscross the skies Qantas had envision it would fill a dozen years ago. Australian travel requirements have also changed. New routes are coming into play from continent to continent that are specific to Australia and its paired continent.
New aircraft development is on the horizon from its main aircraft provider, Boeing. The 797 is a NMA coming to the fore front and Australia is just the right size for a NMA. New Zealand and Indonesia is "next door". An NMA is made for an Australian domain going about 5,500 miles. The Australian Business Traveler is correct noticing Qantas would not take all 45 787-9's from an option position. The 787 option is a Qantas pile of poker chips needed for doing future deals in a changing market.
Qantas is the long haul provider and Jet Star would be a 797 candidate. Qantas will not need 45 787-9's unless world conditions change and competing airlines from China or the middle east slow down its purchase of 787's.
The poker chips can be parlayed into a mix order including 797's 787-9's and 787-10's. It can also rise in number of orders from 45 depending on the over arching objectives Qantas will have from mixing up its fleet. This is where a Winging It opinion works into this story.
Qantas/Jet Star may turn its 45 787-9 options into a 60 orders for a mix of 20 Jet Star 797's, 20 Qantas 787-9's and 20 Qantas 787-10's. Qantas will keep stacking its poker chips from its profits until Boeing announces the 797 program. The 787-9 and 787-10 programs aren't going anywhere soon so Qantas can wait for the 797 to be announced with Qantas being part of that fun in behalf of Jet Star.
The seat count of 250, 300 and 330 for each respective model and the ranges established would make Qantas a head to head competitor with SIA in the South East Asia quadrant. The capable ranges for each type mentioned of 5,500 (797), 9,500 (-9), and 6,500 (-10) miles respectively covers both Jet Star's and Qantas' needs. The source for fleet aligning comes from its old 787 options (45) still remaining around in the Qantas order books. In ten years this mix could evolve as all airline fleets need to evolve as it is capable of doing and Qantas has become a very capable airline.
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