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Tuesday, October 24, 2017

The Singapore Airline Deal Is Much More Than Just A 39 Wide Body Backlog

Singapore Airlines made a ceremonial signing for 20 777-9X's and 19 787-10's. The long held Boeing customer reaffirmed its relationship as a important Boeing customer. This order, long anticipated, and is an already booked Boeing order last summer changed the aviation world as the balance of aviation power shifted towards Boeing. The mega airplane builder needed a symbolic order that established it as the premier maker in the industry. The "other guy" wasn't even close in this particular order battle. Airbus shallow depth of models exposed itself in the order competition.

Boeing and Airbus gave it its all during the order process. Both knowing the winner of this competition would take home the airplane of the year trophy. Before the 787-10 is even delivered the pundits have recognized it to be the most efficient airplane at every level of operation when comparing seat/mile cost with everything else. The only show item missing is its distance doesn't fly around the world or at least half way round the world. The 787-10 wasn't designed for extra long distance routes. It was designed for serving the most passengers going to the most places in the world at the lowest costs for the airline. If an airplane can serve 90% of the world's origin-destinations pairings, then it has a bright future. The 787-10 is more than a star in this segment. It is an undaunted example of scaling up success.

The customer, Singapore has now booked 49 examples of the 787-10. A quick look at the globe and Singapore's position on the world indicates the Airline desires dominance in a 6,000 mile circle from its home base.

Airbus was competing with Boeing on this order since it already had a substantial  part of Singapore's fleet. It has 22 A-330, 18 A-350 and 19 A-380's in its fleet. The back order for Singapore stands at 49 A350-900's and 5 A-380's. The A-380 order is teetering, as it has already returned some of its leased A-380 aircraft.  The airbus fleet count of 59 with an order count suggests the 22 A-330 will be retired leaving the Singapore fleet with just A-350's and its A-380's varying in numbers and having the back-order of 49 A350-900's replacing the fleet as needed.

Boeing has 52 wide bodies in the fleet. Twenty-five of the 777-200's will be retired by the A350-900's. Boeing also has 27 777-300-ER's. Therefore it can be assumed they will stay and will be rotated out over time going forward. The order combination of 20 777-9X and 49 787-10's will give Singapore  Airlines 69 wide bodies coming in while replacing its Boeing and Airbus aircraft already aging in the fleet.

An expectation is that the 20 777-9X will replace the A380 as they age in the next ten years. The 49 787-10's will replace the balance of the Boeing 777-300-ER fleet as it also retires. Bottom line, what was once a 50/50 fleet from two makers suggests Boeing in the next ten years will dominate Singapore Airlines fleet. There could be an additional follow on order within 5 years depending how the 777-9X works out while in service.  The 777-9X will outperform the Airbus fleet and the 787-10's will fit better with Singapore's routes than the A350-900 since the 787 will be more efficient per seat/mile under 6,500 miles. The A350-900 has too much distance performance for a majority of Singapore Airline needs. 

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