The NMA May Come From The 767-400 Configuration (added information)

Boeing is refusing to commit for building a new NMA 797. However, it does own the 767 where it could borrow from that program with many features. Below is  767-400 seating options in pictures which falls into a 250 seat range and could be used as a base line for the 797 proposal.

767-400 program sketches 

The problem with the 767-400 is its maximum take-off weight (401,000) and its prior generation engines hung on the wings. It is not as efficient as the A-330-900 NEO. The 797 would solve that problem immediately with a carbon fiber body, wings and new GE 787 like engines hung on its wings. This is what Boeing could be waiting for is a breakthrough development for a NMA engine.

The maximum take-off weight for a NMA may come in significantly lighter for its dimension when compared with the 767-400, but the lighter weight would allow for more fuel for an extended range rendition of the NMA proposal. Boeing would stick with a 5,500 mile aircraft but it then could have a 6,500 miles extended range version. 

The technology is ripe for a complete 767 passenger replacement(797), leaving the commercial freighter and military tanker versions keeping the 767's original design features for metal aircraft.

MRO Quote: 

"The experience gleaned from the Boeing 777 spotlights the durability leap that composites offer. The 777’s composite vertical fin requires about 35% fewer scheduled maintenance hours than the 767’s aluminum fin, despite being 25% larger. This leap is why 787 air frame maintenance costs are projected to be about 45% lower than those of the 767-300ER, Boeing’s calculations show."

The whole of the MRO article frequently uses the 767 as the backdrop for the 777X improvements. Boeing maybe doing another "mini" moonshot with a 797 using all things learned from these three programs. The programs would include, 737 Max, 787, and 777X. 

The NMA market could be larger than reported for Boeing, since it would fill an exclusive slot in the proverbial "Gap" found in the commercial aviation market place. Boeing reported about a 5,000 aircraft demand in the NMA "Gap". Not all would be future Boeing orders but it could capture 70%of the market if it gets it right at first delivery. This number using 70% comprises 3,500 aircraft sales from Boeing's estimate of a 5,000 segment potential. 

A sliding percentage potential indicates risk would be low for a new start-up model before the competitors catch on to this concept for a NMA type.

• 100% market share for the NMA is 5,000 units
• 90% market share for the NMA is 4,500 units
• 80% market share for the NMA is 4,000 units
• 70% market share for the NMA is 3,500 units
• 60% market share for the NMA is 3,000 units
• 50% market share for the NMA is 2,500 units

Boeing could prosper with a 2,500 unit market for a new start-up aircraft type and its sunk costs over the next 20 years.

The 767-400 Specifications

  

A NMA would beat all the key performance indices of the 767-400 easily once it uses new wings, body, and engines. It could also be eligible for Laminar Flow Technology which is missing on the metal single aisle aircraft and the 787-8. All the lessons learned and paid for would make this an exceptional aircraft.

The complete book of proven innovations would be included on any NMA beating the current 767 models in service. The NMA would borrow the 15'+ across in the passenger area noted by the 767 air frame.

The market appeal should abandon any reference to the 767 model, since it represents old technology and the 797 remains as the primary available number for a new model type. 

However, the point here, is making a recommendation for a replacement for both the 757 and 767 class of travel at the same time. Boeing should introduce a 797-8 replacing the 757 and a 797-9 replacing the 767-300-ER . It has the configuration formula needed from the 767 program and the efficiency technology from the 787 program.