Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Azerbaijan plans to buy six-ish Boeing airplanes

This tittle is just a sampling of what's behind the Boeing curtain before year's end 2017. If reading further the discovery for ten 737 Max, four 787 Dreamliners, and two making 16, could be finalized before year's end. However, the back story does not end there. Winging It has for some time stuck to its guns by saying the wide body 787 family will rip up the stalled order year. It has already gained 83 net 787 orders. There are orders not to be gained but more of to be signed since many orders are in MOU limbo. Boeing will close in on a multitude of finalized 787 orders by year's end.

Boeing vs Airbus for 2017 Orders
Image result for airplanes flying out of a hat

Using a tack of caution will sensibly move the 787 book close to 100 units ordered by year's end. Additionally, the Max book has not been lying idle this year as it is consistently outpacing the Airbus A320 NEO order book throughout the year. This statistic causes analyst to pause over Airbus single aisle order book. There is a limit to everything and perhaps Airbus has booked its easy customer orders while Boeing is beginning to gobble up the "reflective" single aisle market during 2017. Problems that Airbus encountered with its productive success have been marred by engine failure or supplier lag. It has addressed those issues, but created an opening for Boeing's Max with a more reliable CFM 1B engine and is moving seamlessly forward with enhancing its 737 Max production after its first 30 units delivered and maintaining the NG production pace. Boeing has waited a long time for making more single aisle per month than Airbus. Boeing delivered 57 NG/Max 737 during September, 2017.  Boeing booked 61 single aisle orders in September. Airbus delivered 40 and confirmed 40 orders of the A320 NEO/CEO single aisle in the same period.

Its obvious to see Airbus has been longer, at building the A320 NEO, but lags behind Boeing in its production pace by 17 units tallied in September. 

Furthermore, during 2017 Boeing has confirmed 398 gross single aisle orders to Airbus' 263 gross single aisle orders. Ten months is long enough time for some kind of trend conclusion, Boeing has turned a positive corner and Airbus a negative corner. Boeing has more potential and Airbus has spent its potential in the single aisle category.

Going back the the WB division it is clear Boeing is sustaining a stable order influx for its 787 family of aircraft and the year 2017 has had a surprising 787 order strength in a "down year". It may exceed 100 787's ordered and become one of Boeing's strongest 787 order years. Not only has it garnered 777 orders but the 747-8F has not died. A steady trickle of 747-8F orders are emerging and several more will be added to Boeing's order book at the close of the year. It's still only "life support" and the urgency from customers ordering continues before a program could close. Qatar and Azerbaijan are ordering the 787-8F and "others" are considering 747 orders. The few orders hanging are considerably more than the A-380 non orders.

It's still too early to dismiss Airbus from expanding its order book as they often hold announcing year end orders until the first week of the following year or the last week of any given year. Boeing, is of course beginning to play this game as well, and it is expecting a robust December order book emerging, wrapping up most of its hanging orders it has since filed from the Paris airshow. A majority of the Paris deals had MOU's or LOI signed during the event. It has already closed some of the Paris LOI deals since June 2017. There are about 236 MOU units remaining from Paris as not finalized, and many should be by years end. The Paris count goes as Follows by Winging It.  The are about 225 MOU's outstanding both for Max 8's and Max 10's. There are about 9 MOU's for the 787 and 2 MOU's for the 777's from the Paris Airshow last June. These paper intents could be finalized by year's end.