What Will Emirates Do At Dubai?

The airshow is rapidly approaching. The caveat was a wide body order many predicted, but Emirates the big player positioned itself with an order for 70 wide bodies for either Airbus or Boeing. Things change as is often the case. The recent reports is that Emirates has backed off announcing any purchases of wide bodied aircraft at this year's airshow. The reason for that assessment is that the market has slowed for this middle-east juggernaut.

The next step for any fan of any aircraft maker is to always look at the positive after losing out on an opportunity. Both Boeing and Airbus have much to gain with a major wide body order either for its 787 or its A-350 aircraft. The question is what will move Emirates towards making an order announcement at the Dubai airshow. The quick answer is a nominal order with a big option floated about. Emirates would be locking in a price going forward until its aviation market improves. Having said that, a mixing order of types would be the case. Optimism suggests 10- 787-9's and 10- 787-10's are booked with 50 frames optioned into the future. Emirates may further direct options for 20- 787-9's with another 30- 787-10's in a sprawling Boeing order book at the show. 

The pressure is on Boeing to give Emirates the "right" price in light of Airbus chomping at its heels. If Emirates were to wait for its right moment to order, it might be another seven years out before it would start receiving those aircraft and things change quickly, overnight, in some cases. The risk of waiting hangs heavy on Emirates'  buying plan. That is why ordering twenty 787 is better than just waiting. Somewhere in between is always the logical conclusion. 

An Example, Qantas Airlines for a longtime had ordered a multitude of 787's and then cancelled the order, but kept its 787 options intact as it regrouped its financials. It is just now Qantas has begun to take delivery of those former 787 options in a negotiated firming of 787-9's. It may not get all of its options sealed up for delivery but it will gain a substantial lot in the process at a decent price.

Another consideration is what the two makers are offering Emirates. Boeing may have locked a price in with Emirates if it just signs an MOU for 70 aircraft to be firmed in the next 24 months. There are many scenarios for either Boeing or Emirates with this impending order and a commitment at Dubai is more likely than having a hard order.