Airshow Mania Announces 797 At Farnborough 2020

It is hard to forecast the "Perfect Storm", especially with the Boeing company. Boeing has over the last three years stalled, climbed and looped over announcing a New Medium Aircraft (NMA). First there was the let it slip off the lips mode, then...

Photo Depiction of a 797 from Leehamnews.com

 

• "We will build if we find perfect customers". 
• The customers came forward with a solid "like" that idea response. 
• Then came Boeing PR speaking through Mr. Toad, "We will build it if we find the perfect design." 
• The Toad then said, "We will build when market data determines the perfect time."
• Mr Toad then says, "We are sinking with the 787-10, Max and 777X programs all at once.

Boeing PR Spokes-Toad Full Resume Video

What Boeing is really saying is... we don't know what we are doing until we do it! Or is it waiting for the perfect 797 storm before putting out to sea? The storm started to form when customers said that's a great idea. Winds picked-up after the market data forecaster said there was a system moving in and no company will step up or fill-in as a low pressure system is standing at a 5,000 unit forecast. 

A second and third storm systems came in from the Northwest from Seattle and from the Southeast's Charleston, SC. The 737 Max and 787-10 had to have its entry into the market place before a perfect storm could be managed. The 777X is undergoing design modifications while processes are being built in Everett, WA. A whole new wing plant is completed before final scratches are complete on Boeing's giant Etch-O-Sketch found in engineering. The book keeper reports the Max is flying off the shelf as if in some sort of pre-hurricane water bottle frenzy at Walmart. 

The 777X program is the lynch pin for Boeing's perfect storm. Its entry into service is scheduled for the end of 2019 or early 2020 as aviation forecasters predict. The 787-10 is for the first half of 2018 with that program running slightly ahead of schedule. Expect a 2018 springtime 787-10 entry into service.

The airplane program fronts are converging towards the first half of 2020 with the Max at full production by that time, 787-10 entering service since 2018 and the 777X  is having its opus entry by early 2020. The data guys are weary with checking it twice in some sort of yuletide mania. Then up comes Farnborough Airshow, Great Britain's answer to Paris. The storm should hit in a show stopping sort of way. 

The show will open July, 2020 and Boeing will have orders in hand by that time. It will take about 150 orders for the 797 having any significant show impact and orders may go to a "higher count". A maniacal forecast is for 300-797 orders at the show.

Leading candidates for this order venture would include the main European airlines such as British Airways, Norwegian and Air France to name a few. Ryan Air could convert some of its single aisle order backlog depending on price, efficiency and range variables for the 797. The North American carriers would swap order backlog for new 797's. 

The wild part of the storm could be an Asiatic emphasis where anywhere from India to China could boost the book by another hundred units. Boeing would expect a 797 entry into service by 2025. It has the resources and technology in place for a clean sheet program rush-to-service. Neither the 787-10 or 777X is an actual clean sheet effort. The 797 is already in the engineering works.

A general concern is whether the NMA will take away from other program types such as the 737 or 787. It will of course nip around both types edges, but the core of the NMA concept will establish new business models for its customers which will be unrivaled. The emergence of Boeing's new NMA will come from "The Perfect Airline Storm". 

The perfect storm arrives as:

• Boeing has checked-off its prior programs completeness
• Customers are willing and able for NMA
• Boeing has immense technical and facility resources in place only awaiting the 797-NMA modifications
• An announcement venue is at the right moment (Farnborough 2020)