NMA- Boeing Won't Launch What It Hasn't Already Sold

All the Boeing excuses for not launching the NMA (797) comes down to one point. It needs several hundred firmed NMA sales before any announcement.



Boeing has quipped market research, design maturity or the "right moment" which has all passed in time during the last five years. The research is done and various start-up programs have reached completion. Boeing had a plan-in-hand years ago after it stopped making the 757 back in 2005. It needed to build the 787, 777X and the Max before it could devote resources to the "NMA". Most of all it needed firmed launch customer firming of sales. No MOU's, Intents or order Conversions as experienced at the Max-10 launching. It just needs a stand-alone sales number for its NMA before launch announcements, then Boeing excuses of using market research, timing and design maturity makes sense.

Boeing already knows the NMA plan as it awaits for its customer(s) for pulling the trigger. The bigger the launch in unit numbers, the greater the long term success. 

Let's face it, the 737 Max-10 announcements at Paris was underwhelming with all the conversions intents and MOU's announced at the show. No one took anything away from Paris except from John Leahy's Boeing bluster comments about how few real firmed sales had during Boeing's 737-Max -10 launch announcement. Launch momentum was lost at the show by the plethora of conditional transactions where it only had less than a hundred direct and firmed 737 Max 10 sales for its launch. Quietly, Boeing is picking off one MOU at a time by turning the Intents into firm orders without much fanfare.

A new aircraft launch is all about the show and not accountant's sharpened pencils and legal pads of information telling a story having 360 737 Max 10's with firmed orders, MOU's or Intents including any options.

Boeing wants to bring clarity to any launch going forward. People in the industry walked away confused after the Paris announcements for the 737 Max 10. After months of analysis since Paris, the analyst can only factor in what has happened since the show and no one is paying attention much to the 737-Max 10 launch announcement with some of its MOU's, since firmed up.

My own data on the 737 Max Launch, indicates the following 360 or so Max 10's where agreed upon where 63 are newly firm orders classificaion, 90 remain MOU's and  214 are purchases out from Conversions classification (those from prior 737 orders booked). It remains a mess to sort out the launch other than say About 360 Max ten's are probably in play having sacrificed some of Boeing's 737 Max-8 orders to get to a 366 number.

The Boeing's NMA launch doesn't want a cluster of different announcements for its new family of aircraft (AKA 797). It just wants about 300 units ordered representing its launch customers before anything is announced! 

Boeing is waiting those customer's signatures and then using this interim time period for do due diligence aircraft R & D going forward. The timing for a launch should be from 2016-2019. Some say Boeing has waited too long for an Airbus answer. and should of already been way down the road from a NMA  launch date. If there is no answer to an unknown NMA configuration in the market place, time does not play into this process only to the extent of available resources and obtaining customer's firm ordering.