Boeing has often approach business as a customer first purpose in manufacturing. However, there are different levels of whose those customers may be. The airline, the supplier or the passenger are most of the likely customers Boeing pursues. Its competitor, Airbus, advertises traveling space for its passengers over its competitor.
On the other hand Boeing talks efficiency, cost savings and innovation for its airline customer. Airlines job one is to make money by running a tight ship. Boeing has invested a considerable amount of money into ancillary services offered its customers. Maintenance plans, Boeing expertise and parts/servicing are to name a few products it offers to its airline customers. The philosophy from Boeing is if buying a Boeing aircraft an airline can hire mercenary services from Boeing without having to build its own ground services for itself for great cost.
Airbus has invested its campaign towards patronizing passenger sensibility when it featured a 5" wider wide body as its key reason for flying on its WB. It skipped past what it had to offer as an airline maker concerning its technical and ancillary support for a reason to buy its product. Boeing has emphasized its other contiguous services with the sales of its airplane.
The theory being, when buying a product without added value accounted for in the sales transaction, it becomes an apple and orange product comparison. Boeing's additional ancillary offerings make a complete deal for any building airline.
The first years of the 787 in service is a good example. Every time the 787 had a fault during service a Boeing team was there to mitigate that fault. Boeing offers a similar service for its normal operations but with the caveat it will be more convenient, cheaper and efficient if hiring Boeing doing the ground work instead of an airline providing a vast number of trained employees to do the same.
This is an example of Boeing's emphasis towards the airline and not directly at the passenger. The second part of this becomes more intriguing for airline planners. Give the airline enough advanced technology for enticing passengers and then the airline is free in its decision on how the passengers are provided. The Airbus model was 5" wider and it fit wider seats in the space provided. Airbus spent money on how window shades were much better than dimming windows. It spent money on LED lighting systems like Boeing had and it spent money on its archaic bleed air air filtration processes which Boeing can skip from its electric driven air systems.
Airbus attacked to the passenger sensibility when convincing its airline customer the A-350 was a better deal. The 787 was designed for eight seats across and the A-350 was designed for nine seats across but most airlines choose nine seats across on the 787 in economy. Making a list of who does what better for this wide body class easily becomes an obvious choice in most categories the "new" aircraft offer.
Boeing wins the following battles for the customer: Lights, air, and windows.
Airbus wins the 5" wider space for nine seats across or about 1/2" per seat wider.
The noise difference is a push between the two makers. They are both quiet while hearing people do there thing becomes the issue.
All other comparisons are dependent on how well the airline serves its passengers
Passengers are comparing how seats are configured, airline service and who is able to offer the cheapest ticket. For the price conscious passenger the journey is not the vacation. The vacation starts upon arrival. The passenger not caring for travel prices as its deal breaker, since the typical airline first class or business class is 4-6 seats across no matter what airplane model a passenger flies on. The passenger in this class is looking for airline service from start to finish. However for economy, a ticket price is directly influence by an airlines efficiency, therefore an efficient flying aircraft will have the best seat prices in a competitive economy market.
Monday, November 27, 2017
Sunday, November 26, 2017
Could Boeing Exceed 1,000 Net Orders For 2017?
A very interesting questions as per usual answer. "It depends". Boeing is moving forward with several big orders as we read. First, it is best to mention it already has booked 662 net orders to date for this year. It is also important that it has several big deals not yet booked but already counted as "sold" transactions. It will be interesting how or when those transactions will be reported by Boeing.
First is the 225 flydubai orders for the 737 Max signed for at the Dubai Airshow. Then there is the 787-10 order for 40 Emirates signed at the same show. The 662 net orders added to the 265 just mentioned, and not booked yet by Boeing, comes to a total 927 net orders if it is added by December 31, 2017. There remains another 73 orders needed for adding during December to make an even 1,000 Boeing aircraft by year's end. The occurance of this happening becomes "very possible".
Otherwise, if it doesn't come out during 2017, its 662 net orders already booked is a very good year for Boeing. On the flip side, is the year 2018, which should include any airshow orders not booked during 2017. Anyways, that would make for a decent 2018 starting point. Airbus has in its hip pocket 430 NEO commitments just announced for a multiple of airlines through a purchasing consortium, Indigo Partners.
It may take some time to firm up those airline orders. Even if Airbus does book the 430 NEO's by year's end, it will not catch Boeing in units booked for 2017. There remains a few surprises before year's end for both manufacturers.
First is the 225 flydubai orders for the 737 Max signed for at the Dubai Airshow. Then there is the 787-10 order for 40 Emirates signed at the same show. The 662 net orders added to the 265 just mentioned, and not booked yet by Boeing, comes to a total 927 net orders if it is added by December 31, 2017. There remains another 73 orders needed for adding during December to make an even 1,000 Boeing aircraft by year's end. The occurance of this happening becomes "very possible".
Otherwise, if it doesn't come out during 2017, its 662 net orders already booked is a very good year for Boeing. On the flip side, is the year 2018, which should include any airshow orders not booked during 2017. Anyways, that would make for a decent 2018 starting point. Airbus has in its hip pocket 430 NEO commitments just announced for a multiple of airlines through a purchasing consortium, Indigo Partners.
It may take some time to firm up those airline orders. Even if Airbus does book the 430 NEO's by year's end, it will not catch Boeing in units booked for 2017. There remains a few surprises before year's end for both manufacturers.
Friday, November 24, 2017
The A-380 Is Looking For The Exit
Not waiting for a bouncer exercising his duty for a toss, Airbus seeks a gracious way out the door. Boeing recognized its own problem ten years ago when floating the 747-8 concept. The new mega bird would give Boeing a quiet exit out of the market pit.
Airbus did not want to follow nor could it believe they were in the wrong place at the wrong time. Pride cometh before the fall was an "American only thing" and certainly not a "Euro thing", as Airbus needed to show up any American idea that only a short French man would consider. Having a "Euro Personality Complex", Airbus built the A-380 and its nemesis Boeing built a jumbo freighter pairing it with its dying four engine passenger version through renovating its technology borrowed from the 787.
Boeing would not risk its reputation and it looked for the 747-8 exit in the mean-time with about 100 orders for its frame having two functions (Cargo and Passenger).
The A-380 was about to be bounced out when someone said again, "Pride cometh before the fall". Dubai 2017 was the moment the Emirates bouncers entered the event while Airbus was not paying attention to the room, but it only remained fawning with its circle of customers at the show. Airbus did not get the Boeing memo ten years earlier. In fact after Airbus cancelled its A350-800 freighter version, it continued jumping the A-380 passenger shark as if it were some college prank.
Emirates ordered 142 of the A-380 in a vast move long ago to corner the Jumbo market. Boeing sat still and just blinked at that deal long time ago. The Boeing corporate thinking aligned with thoughts on its just conducted studies, revealing the A-380 will be on life support in ten years. Those years have just flown by and now Airbus is working on saving face with its A-380 failure rather than saving the A-380 itself from collapsing under its own weight. Emirates has 42 more for delivery which will take another ten years for order fulfillment when completing the original order. A twenty year span in aviation compares with a 500 hundred year span of time during the dark ages for improvements.
The A-380 cannot compete with airplanes having less mass and size. If technology exist for the A-380 to out perform the twin aisle aircraft, then the twin aisle concepts will also have that same technological advancements for themselves.
The A-380 hung itself out on a very skinny limb and Airbus cannot place a big enough net under the skinny limb for an A-380 fall. Boeing smirks sort of, "I forgot to tell you so!"
The 777X is the current checkmate move against the top end of the Airbus family of aircraft. The A-350 and A-380 game pieces are in jeopardy. One is to be taken the other "Check-Mated" and all by the 777X.
Airbus will not concede the game. It only seeks silent humiliation for its family of aircraft. Boeing is helping them with the humiliation status. The American based manufacturer currently has a ten year lead over Airbus WB airplane ideas.The A-380 is King of the skies but didn't see the Queen of the skies coming in for its checkmate. Airbus can't leave the room fast enough, it will just be bounced.
Airbus did not want to follow nor could it believe they were in the wrong place at the wrong time. Pride cometh before the fall was an "American only thing" and certainly not a "Euro thing", as Airbus needed to show up any American idea that only a short French man would consider. Having a "Euro Personality Complex", Airbus built the A-380 and its nemesis Boeing built a jumbo freighter pairing it with its dying four engine passenger version through renovating its technology borrowed from the 787.
Boeing would not risk its reputation and it looked for the 747-8 exit in the mean-time with about 100 orders for its frame having two functions (Cargo and Passenger).
The A-380 was about to be bounced out when someone said again, "Pride cometh before the fall". Dubai 2017 was the moment the Emirates bouncers entered the event while Airbus was not paying attention to the room, but it only remained fawning with its circle of customers at the show. Airbus did not get the Boeing memo ten years earlier. In fact after Airbus cancelled its A350-800 freighter version, it continued jumping the A-380 passenger shark as if it were some college prank.
Emirates ordered 142 of the A-380 in a vast move long ago to corner the Jumbo market. Boeing sat still and just blinked at that deal long time ago. The Boeing corporate thinking aligned with thoughts on its just conducted studies, revealing the A-380 will be on life support in ten years. Those years have just flown by and now Airbus is working on saving face with its A-380 failure rather than saving the A-380 itself from collapsing under its own weight. Emirates has 42 more for delivery which will take another ten years for order fulfillment when completing the original order. A twenty year span in aviation compares with a 500 hundred year span of time during the dark ages for improvements.
The A-380 cannot compete with airplanes having less mass and size. If technology exist for the A-380 to out perform the twin aisle aircraft, then the twin aisle concepts will also have that same technological advancements for themselves.
The A-380 hung itself out on a very skinny limb and Airbus cannot place a big enough net under the skinny limb for an A-380 fall. Boeing smirks sort of, "I forgot to tell you so!"
The 777X is the current checkmate move against the top end of the Airbus family of aircraft. The A-350 and A-380 game pieces are in jeopardy. One is to be taken the other "Check-Mated" and all by the 777X.
Airbus will not concede the game. It only seeks silent humiliation for its family of aircraft. Boeing is helping them with the humiliation status. The American based manufacturer currently has a ten year lead over Airbus WB airplane ideas.The A-380 is King of the skies but didn't see the Queen of the skies coming in for its checkmate. Airbus can't leave the room fast enough, it will just be bounced.
Thursday, November 23, 2017
China-777X and Pigs Flying
"When Pigs Fly" is an old adage for it will not happen ever. This Thanksgiving day dinner saw three turkeys and big slabs of ham to make a complete quartet. In this case the pig flew off the counter and onto the plate.
China or its region has the 777-300-ER well in its fleet. The Chinese cadre of airlines are expanding with the 777-ER and have a newly maturing fleets of aircraft. The 777-300-ER is present and accounted for the next 10 years.
The current goal is for going with medium wide body with a variety of A-350's and 787's. The 777X has a 326 unit backlog and has not been even assembled or tested yet. China can wait for a 777X type of order. In the mean time, the 777-300-ER is a great fit for its fleets. An airplane service life within its fleet status is about 10 years or a few years longer depending on the business plan. The 777-300-ER averages 4 years old within the Chinese fleets.
Having this little information about China's big wide body fleet status would indicate its airline fleets would need order placement for 777X's by 2025 for replacing its classic 777's. In fact, additional orders for the 777-300-ER may occur over the next three years. By 2022, the 777X backlog would start reducing with a estimated 50 unit a year delivery pace. The Chinese competing long distance fleets would need the 777X by 2025. Orders for those types could be expected by 2022 or in the next four years.
The 777X test phase and entry into service should reach completion by the end of 2020. The Boeing 777X book should have more orders coming from world-wide customers after the initial deliveries establishes its performance in the market place. The buying customer has learned from the 787 and A-320 lessons that rushing new technology has higher risks.
Airlines, shelling out billions for new models having its first entry into service, have become more risk adverse.
Additionally, data is not yet available if the 777X's can pay for themselves when operating current routes and the 777-300-ER price is currently favorable when expanding an airlines long distance fleet. Boeing will stay the course forward with this program from lessons learned from the 787 experience. After the 777X wing build, Boeing should have the program under its control with all its new technology installed on the new airplane.
The China region could order another 50 777X's by 2025. Now that Pigs have flown pass the potatoes.
China or its region has the 777-300-ER well in its fleet. The Chinese cadre of airlines are expanding with the 777-ER and have a newly maturing fleets of aircraft. The 777-300-ER is present and accounted for the next 10 years.
The current goal is for going with medium wide body with a variety of A-350's and 787's. The 777X has a 326 unit backlog and has not been even assembled or tested yet. China can wait for a 777X type of order. In the mean time, the 777-300-ER is a great fit for its fleets. An airplane service life within its fleet status is about 10 years or a few years longer depending on the business plan. The 777-300-ER averages 4 years old within the Chinese fleets.
Having this little information about China's big wide body fleet status would indicate its airline fleets would need order placement for 777X's by 2025 for replacing its classic 777's. In fact, additional orders for the 777-300-ER may occur over the next three years. By 2022, the 777X backlog would start reducing with a estimated 50 unit a year delivery pace. The Chinese competing long distance fleets would need the 777X by 2025. Orders for those types could be expected by 2022 or in the next four years.
The 777X test phase and entry into service should reach completion by the end of 2020. The Boeing 777X book should have more orders coming from world-wide customers after the initial deliveries establishes its performance in the market place. The buying customer has learned from the 787 and A-320 lessons that rushing new technology has higher risks.
Airlines, shelling out billions for new models having its first entry into service, have become more risk adverse.
Additionally, data is not yet available if the 777X's can pay for themselves when operating current routes and the 777-300-ER price is currently favorable when expanding an airlines long distance fleet. Boeing will stay the course forward with this program from lessons learned from the 787 experience. After the 777X wing build, Boeing should have the program under its control with all its new technology installed on the new airplane.
The China region could order another 50 777X's by 2025. Now that Pigs have flown pass the potatoes.
Wednesday, November 22, 2017
Boeing Slowly Works Its Order Book
Recently, at the Dubai Airshow, Boeing announced 225 737 Max with flydubai and another 40 787-10's with Emirates. Then there were other orders during the show. However, after the show there were more orders firmed with Avolon leasing for 55 737 Max 8's and 20 Max 10's. The Boeing order book now stands at a gross 787 units ordered and a net total of 662 units ordered after cancellations and changes are made, Below is a Winging It chart calculating what Boeing has booked in a week by week effort for keeping it accurate. In one instance Winging It plugged some numbers to match what totals Boeing reported even though there was no reference given by Boeing why two NG 737's had to be deducted and 6 737 Max had to be added to equal its total orders. Those mystery changes are missing from Boeing's report on its website but are part of its totals. Therefore there is a plug number on 11-17-2017 for balancing Boeing's own numbers.
Another note or observation, Boeing is capable of booking more than a thousand orders for 2017 exceeding its book to bill ratio goal of 1 by some degree. Having not booked most of the Dubai airshow orders to date, a final number becomes a speculative exercise as 225 Boeing's single aisle and 40 WB remain in a state of limbo until these orders are finalized.
However, Boeing has made its order point this year, as it has demonstrated it can go toe to toe with Airbus in the single aisle division, and exceed Airbus wide body aspirations by a long mile. Whatever order hold back Airbus has for announcing only until December 31, 2017, it should not even approach what Boeing will announce by year's end.
Another note or observation, Boeing is capable of booking more than a thousand orders for 2017 exceeding its book to bill ratio goal of 1 by some degree. Having not booked most of the Dubai airshow orders to date, a final number becomes a speculative exercise as 225 Boeing's single aisle and 40 WB remain in a state of limbo until these orders are finalized.
However, Boeing has made its order point this year, as it has demonstrated it can go toe to toe with Airbus in the single aisle division, and exceed Airbus wide body aspirations by a long mile. Whatever order hold back Airbus has for announcing only until December 31, 2017, it should not even approach what Boeing will announce by year's end.
Tuesday, November 21, 2017
Dubai Deer Jet Dreamliner Video
Enjoy what private can do for you on a Dreamliner. The only one in the world so enjoy the peeping lens and say you've "been there, seen it, done it!" The Dubai Airshow side-bar.
What Was Learned At Paris Last June Concerning The 797
The year of the 797 is 2018. The 797 honors the laws of physics and is not competing with Airbus with this offering. The 787 may have been announced in 2003 and first delivered in 2011 eight years later, but the smaller 797 or NMA will complete itself within five years instead of eight years suggesting a 2024 entry into service.
A take from the Paris Airshow from "Aviation Week": June 2017
"At the show, Boeing did, however, confirm several new configuration details, including the use of a fifth-generation composite wing, a “hybrid” composite fuselage, next-generation digital architecture and super efficient, very-high-bypass turbofans. A conceptual graphic and side-view profile also showed a 757-size aircraft clearly displaying a meld of 777 and 787 design features."
Even though considerable homage was paid to the 757 configuration, going twin aisle makes the 797 go wider than a single aisle and is narrower than a 787 ,as mentioned by several Winging It postings. The reference of a hybrid composite fuselage becomes an enigma for most aviation geeks. It sounds like the body will have design aspects which will lend to using composites in critical areas for strength, especially around window areas and then inserting aluminum alloy panels in non critical strength areas. The imaginary view implies a panel construction similar to the Airbus A-350 presentation but have a "C"shape panels in a critical window area allowing for its width at a mid-body key point.
The "aluminum alloy" panels will shape the remainder of the body. The over-all weight reduction will make this mid model the most efficient it can be when using hybrid design points as well as hybrid parts points for the 797's body outcome. The lifting surfaces should all be composite. An estimated 50% composite body including wings is the "hybrid" outcome.
A take from the Paris Airshow from "Aviation Week": June 2017
"At the show, Boeing did, however, confirm several new configuration details, including the use of a fifth-generation composite wing, a “hybrid” composite fuselage, next-generation digital architecture and super efficient, very-high-bypass turbofans. A conceptual graphic and side-view profile also showed a 757-size aircraft clearly displaying a meld of 777 and 787 design features."
Even though considerable homage was paid to the 757 configuration, going twin aisle makes the 797 go wider than a single aisle and is narrower than a 787 ,as mentioned by several Winging It postings. The reference of a hybrid composite fuselage becomes an enigma for most aviation geeks. It sounds like the body will have design aspects which will lend to using composites in critical areas for strength, especially around window areas and then inserting aluminum alloy panels in non critical strength areas. The imaginary view implies a panel construction similar to the Airbus A-350 presentation but have a "C"shape panels in a critical window area allowing for its width at a mid-body key point.
The "aluminum alloy" panels will shape the remainder of the body. The over-all weight reduction will make this mid model the most efficient it can be when using hybrid design points as well as hybrid parts points for the 797's body outcome. The lifting surfaces should all be composite. An estimated 50% composite body including wings is the "hybrid" outcome.
Boeing Books Since Paris
Back in June of 2017 Boeing had amassed a lot of paper airplanes. Those are good intentions (LOI) or promised airplanes via MOU's with some contractual commitment, but what about booking those orders?
How many and how much is it worth coming from a Paris handshake? Winging It kept records from the show and classified those records with the following sub groupings.
A solid green color indicated a purchase, or a conversion from one previously ordered type into a firm order at the show for another type. A star by customer's name indicates a new firm order converted from the previous Paris airshow MOU/LOI status. A starred name has been converted into a solid green color purchase condition where any remaining MOU's or LOI's remain a light green color on Winging It's main chart and is not pictured above and is not shown with this posting. A purchase-conversion may have been an MOU at the show but it could be a firm order today and is booked by Boeing.
A previous posting listed the remaining Paris Airshow MOU's and LOI's and briefly discussed what should happen to those MOU's before year's end.
Below is an indication for how busy the Boeing marketing team has been working. Not only finalizing deals from Paris but currently adding flydubai for 225 Max aircraft, Avolon's 75 Max aircraft, and a slug of wide bodied aircraft from various customers totaling about 45 787's and several 777's as an example.
The below Chart list the prior MOU's and LOI's agreed upon during the Paris Airshow 2017 and are now booked as firm orders for Boeing.
Boeing's backlog of MOU's signed since Paris eclipses Boeing's Dubai Show both in units ordered and in value. The two airshows combined value adds significantly more than $150 billion gross to Boeing's book at list price. The Cumulative Paris order Book is charted below from Winging It data. It includes both those orders during the show and those orders firmed after the show from its MOU status*.
* represents a prior intent/MOU and is now a booked Booked order on Boeing's website.
How many and how much is it worth coming from a Paris handshake? Winging It kept records from the show and classified those records with the following sub groupings.
A solid green color indicated a purchase, or a conversion from one previously ordered type into a firm order at the show for another type. A star by customer's name indicates a new firm order converted from the previous Paris airshow MOU/LOI status. A starred name has been converted into a solid green color purchase condition where any remaining MOU's or LOI's remain a light green color on Winging It's main chart and is not pictured above and is not shown with this posting. A purchase-conversion may have been an MOU at the show but it could be a firm order today and is booked by Boeing.
A previous posting listed the remaining Paris Airshow MOU's and LOI's and briefly discussed what should happen to those MOU's before year's end.
Below is an indication for how busy the Boeing marketing team has been working. Not only finalizing deals from Paris but currently adding flydubai for 225 Max aircraft, Avolon's 75 Max aircraft, and a slug of wide bodied aircraft from various customers totaling about 45 787's and several 777's as an example.
The below Chart list the prior MOU's and LOI's agreed upon during the Paris Airshow 2017 and are now booked as firm orders for Boeing.
Boeing's backlog of MOU's signed since Paris eclipses Boeing's Dubai Show both in units ordered and in value. The two airshows combined value adds significantly more than $150 billion gross to Boeing's book at list price. The Cumulative Paris order Book is charted below from Winging It data. It includes both those orders during the show and those orders firmed after the show from its MOU status*.
The gross list price value exceeds $100 billion from both shows. This is the Paris List Below at $97 Billion The Dubai Airshow was close to $50 billion.
* represents a prior intent/MOU and is now a booked Booked order on Boeing's website.
Monday, November 20, 2017
The Unannounced 797 Announces Its Program Engineer?
Boeing who has fooled no one at this time has moved chief 777X project engineer, Terry Beezhold, over to a new privately run sweat shop with no apparent project on its drawing board. No one saw this coming, least of all Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS) who commented...
"Yes, we definitely want to be first in line," said Bjørn Kjos, Norwegian Air Shuttle CEO in Seattle.
The 797 doesn't exist and Boeing isn't going to tell even if does exist. It only moves chess pieces around its massive manufacturing chess board without further adieu. The only mystery remaining is 797 launch customer's and where it will be assembled (built).
Bloomberg: "McAllister said Boeing is ready for the challenge:
It remains for Boeing to whittle down to a one, two, three program process.
There are many usual suspects vying for the coveted launch customer trophy. Usually this honor goes to a Boeing "favorite" or some customer's massive order announcement.
The China market is ripe for a 797 and Norwegian Air Shuttle has stuck its foot in Boeing's big factory doors. Boeing analyzes everything, including who will be launch customer and when. Typically a launch announcement will contain a surprise or two. Speculation on who it might be becomes an insane adventure not for those with feint hearts.
"Winging It" is a candidate well suited for speculating because...
Boeing would like placing an Airbus insult by having a European launch customer and NAS is ripe for its task of making Airbus stammer without a John Leahy in the room. However, a mega order coming from the far east could be in the works and a launch customer trophy is within China's grasp.
Boeing reports (CNBC): "Boeing has forecast that Chinese airlines will buy 7,240 commercial aircraft worth $1.1 trillion between now and 2036.
Being a 797 launch customer is in a prime position and within China's numerous airline customers.
A 797 launch will include an Asian, American, and European cadre of 797 launch customers. One will be out of a massive order, while another will come to a favorite customer, and finally the last launch customer will come from Europe such as NAS.
The battle for each region is vicious and it would be difficult to hone in on three top candidates for 797 launch customer trophy. Any Asian favorites emerges from many options. An airline capable of a really big order becomes a complex process in citing a potential launch customer. One could lean towards China Southern or with Lion Air being a possible counter to anything China Southern does. The order number would be a minimum of 100 units.
An American offer coming from North America or its neighbors to the southern continent are possibilities. A surprise and insane launch customer goes to Delta. United is too booked with single aisle and Delta has big plans for bigger aircraft than its single aisle fleet. The buy-in for any launch customer is 100 units or higher.
The European launch was mention at the top goes to NAS. It too could go all-in with a 100 or more with its European business model.
The Boeing announcement threshold would be for 400 or more units from about a dozen customers in one show. The follow on orders from other customers could swell the ranks by another 400 during one year's time after announcing the 797 launch. It would take a 800 unit backlog to risk 10-15 billion development dollars.
"Yes, we definitely want to be first in line," said Bjørn Kjos, Norwegian Air Shuttle CEO in Seattle.
The 797 doesn't exist and Boeing isn't going to tell even if does exist. It only moves chess pieces around its massive manufacturing chess board without further adieu. The only mystery remaining is 797 launch customer's and where it will be assembled (built).
Bloomberg: "McAllister said Boeing is ready for the challenge:
“We spend an awful lot of time in our position looking at the chess board of moves in the market. I’m very comfortable with where we sit today,” he said. “There is no change in our strategy as a result of this. I say game on!”
It remains for Boeing to whittle down to a one, two, three program process.
- Launch the 777X
- Deliver the 737 Max -10
- and sell about four hundred 797's before the next airshow.
There are many usual suspects vying for the coveted launch customer trophy. Usually this honor goes to a Boeing "favorite" or some customer's massive order announcement.
The China market is ripe for a 797 and Norwegian Air Shuttle has stuck its foot in Boeing's big factory doors. Boeing analyzes everything, including who will be launch customer and when. Typically a launch announcement will contain a surprise or two. Speculation on who it might be becomes an insane adventure not for those with feint hearts.
"Winging It" is a candidate well suited for speculating because...
- Insanity is its core value
- Its heart has no temperature
- and its pay grade is low enough for the risk.
Boeing would like placing an Airbus insult by having a European launch customer and NAS is ripe for its task of making Airbus stammer without a John Leahy in the room. However, a mega order coming from the far east could be in the works and a launch customer trophy is within China's grasp.
Boeing reports (CNBC): "Boeing has forecast that Chinese airlines will buy 7,240 commercial aircraft worth $1.1 trillion between now and 2036.
Being a 797 launch customer is in a prime position and within China's numerous airline customers.
A 797 launch will include an Asian, American, and European cadre of 797 launch customers. One will be out of a massive order, while another will come to a favorite customer, and finally the last launch customer will come from Europe such as NAS.
The battle for each region is vicious and it would be difficult to hone in on three top candidates for 797 launch customer trophy. Any Asian favorites emerges from many options. An airline capable of a really big order becomes a complex process in citing a potential launch customer. One could lean towards China Southern or with Lion Air being a possible counter to anything China Southern does. The order number would be a minimum of 100 units.
An American offer coming from North America or its neighbors to the southern continent are possibilities. A surprise and insane launch customer goes to Delta. United is too booked with single aisle and Delta has big plans for bigger aircraft than its single aisle fleet. The buy-in for any launch customer is 100 units or higher.
The European launch was mention at the top goes to NAS. It too could go all-in with a 100 or more with its European business model.
The Boeing announcement threshold would be for 400 or more units from about a dozen customers in one show. The follow on orders from other customers could swell the ranks by another 400 during one year's time after announcing the 797 launch. It would take a 800 unit backlog to risk 10-15 billion development dollars.
Sunday, November 19, 2017
Remembering Paris 2017
The Paris airshow had so many MOU's 737-10's ordered and now the year is closing to its end. The chart below has been updated as best as possible from the information provided by Boeing's order book postings. The remaining MOU's should be closed off by year's end and here are a list of Paris orders not yet firmed . There remains about 85 aircraft in MOU status from the Paris Airshow for an estimated list value for about $10 billion US. The key to this is the number and value of aircraft which could be added to Boeing's purchase haul for 2017. Today an order for from Avolon was firmed for 75 Max which numbers 55 Max 8's and 20 Max 10's. The order/MOU originated from the Paris Airshow last June and now $11 billion has been added to Boeing's books which will be recorded at a future date by Boeing.
Remaining MOU's from Paris Airshow 2017
Friday, November 17, 2017
Dubai Summary And Conclusion
The Dubai Airshow is completed for 2017. Numbers and opinions remain in some sort of sandstorm sweeping in after the show, when every maker claims victory per its respective PR department. No one's opinion is valid, this case becomes clear. Over a $ hundred billion of aircraft were sold having a 1990's style annual order book total emerging in just one single show.
What can be said, Airbus took in more orders in units and value over Boeing. Boeing stole a customer from Airbus for the tune of 15.1 billion dollars. Airbus did not book wide body orders. Boeing stretched its wide body order book out by another 51 units ordered. The Airbus mega order caught everyone's wind from its breath. The single aisle show dominated the attention of cursory watchers.
The real show from all the Airbus showmanship was the Boeing/Emirates deal indicating a change in the region had occured. Even though Airbus caught up its single aisle order book to Boeing's single aisle order book with one customer and one order, Boeing still leads Airbus with its 2017 single aisle sales. It also leads Airbus with duo aisle sales. Many other MOU/LOI's for both makers will have completion before the end of the year.
Boeing lost a battle in the middle of its own 2017 order surge. Airbus is losing the 2017 order war and is likely the defeated during 2017. An important observation is the momentum going forward into 2018. Boeing has that momentum. One Airbus order and one Airbus customer is not a long term solution for Airbus's order plight. Boeing has laid a strong Middle East connection for its family of Aircraft which Airbus just lost. The flydubai single aisle deal was more important than the Indigo Partner order. Even though the Indigo Partner has multiple customers in its portfolio and risk is spread out among its own customers, there remains a likely hood several or one of its customers will cancel out from it order burden. Not all business models will succeed and not all orders will be completed. The 430 A-320's orders may shrink over time. On the other hand, flydubai has a ripe market and financially sound benefactor supporting its regional plan. It's not saying all 225 orders will be filled but the risk of order reduction is considerably less for flydubai than Indigo Partner's position.
The main focus of the show is on the Emirates order as it once again rebuffs Airbus when choosing Boeing's offering of 787-10's. Emirates said no to its first order for 70 A-350-900. It would review the Airbus case extensively before reopening the order conversation with Airbus. It has been many years since that cancellation for 70 and Airbus has much time to address Emirates concerns. With that, Emirate can talk to many Airbus owners over how the A350-900 is working for them. Boeing only had a testing model for the Emirates comparison when proposing its wide body. In the end the 787-10 beat out the A-350-900 the during the second time for the A-350-900. The reason why is multi faceted but the main reason it the 787-10 was built for high density flying going 6-7,000 miles with the cheapest seat mile expense ratio in the market. The A-350-900 was over built for the Emirate mission. It wasn't a hard decision by the UAE but was a respectful decision as it had promised Airbus long ago, a second look which it gave will honestly as a Airbus solution. Boeing won the world wide body market with this order.
What can be said, Airbus took in more orders in units and value over Boeing. Boeing stole a customer from Airbus for the tune of 15.1 billion dollars. Airbus did not book wide body orders. Boeing stretched its wide body order book out by another 51 units ordered. The Airbus mega order caught everyone's wind from its breath. The single aisle show dominated the attention of cursory watchers.
The real show from all the Airbus showmanship was the Boeing/Emirates deal indicating a change in the region had occured. Even though Airbus caught up its single aisle order book to Boeing's single aisle order book with one customer and one order, Boeing still leads Airbus with its 2017 single aisle sales. It also leads Airbus with duo aisle sales. Many other MOU/LOI's for both makers will have completion before the end of the year.
Boeing lost a battle in the middle of its own 2017 order surge. Airbus is losing the 2017 order war and is likely the defeated during 2017. An important observation is the momentum going forward into 2018. Boeing has that momentum. One Airbus order and one Airbus customer is not a long term solution for Airbus's order plight. Boeing has laid a strong Middle East connection for its family of Aircraft which Airbus just lost. The flydubai single aisle deal was more important than the Indigo Partner order. Even though the Indigo Partner has multiple customers in its portfolio and risk is spread out among its own customers, there remains a likely hood several or one of its customers will cancel out from it order burden. Not all business models will succeed and not all orders will be completed. The 430 A-320's orders may shrink over time. On the other hand, flydubai has a ripe market and financially sound benefactor supporting its regional plan. It's not saying all 225 orders will be filled but the risk of order reduction is considerably less for flydubai than Indigo Partner's position.
The main focus of the show is on the Emirates order as it once again rebuffs Airbus when choosing Boeing's offering of 787-10's. Emirates said no to its first order for 70 A-350-900. It would review the Airbus case extensively before reopening the order conversation with Airbus. It has been many years since that cancellation for 70 and Airbus has much time to address Emirates concerns. With that, Emirate can talk to many Airbus owners over how the A350-900 is working for them. Boeing only had a testing model for the Emirates comparison when proposing its wide body. In the end the 787-10 beat out the A-350-900 the during the second time for the A-350-900. The reason why is multi faceted but the main reason it the 787-10 was built for high density flying going 6-7,000 miles with the cheapest seat mile expense ratio in the market. The A-350-900 was over built for the Emirate mission. It wasn't a hard decision by the UAE but was a respectful decision as it had promised Airbus long ago, a second look which it gave will honestly as a Airbus solution. Boeing won the world wide body market with this order.
Wednesday, November 15, 2017
"flydubai" Saves Boeing's Day With 225 Max Ordered
The slug fest has started with an
Airbus 430 Single Aisle order for 49 Billion at list prices. Boeing
counter punches with an order from "flydubai" worth $27 Billion ordering 225 of
its Single aisle Max aircraft. A Winging It hint was given last week this would
be a single aisle sales event.
Winging
It November 12:
"The show is just starting, it ain't over
yet!"
Winging It:
Quote:
"The show remains a mystery for orders where Boeing
should pick up a sampling of wide body orders rather than having a domination
of orders coming from one or two customers. The dark horse is the 737 Max
family where a surprising number of the single aisle orders could come in as it
is overdue for some more Middle Eastern love."
This prediction did not include an Airbus huge announcement
by a previous unknown player to this story. More research and development
work is needed by this writer.
Tuesday, November 14, 2017
Bloomberg Scoops Dubai With Massive Order News
Airbus is pulling another rabbit out of its hat with a massive single aisle order with Indigo Partners indicating 430 single aisle A-320's. It will be announced in about two hours of this posting.Can't say I saw this coming but it absolutely steals the Dubai show from Boeing if it holds true.
Monday, November 13, 2017
Does The Dubai Forty Mean Something?
Emirates placed an order for 40
787-10's at the Dubai airshow. Another clue came forward recently from a remark
about the 787-10's testing suggesting Emirates is fond of its flexibility.
Quote
from the Charleston Regional Business Journal:
“Emirates has displayed immense
confidence in the South Carolina-built 787-10s and has seen the maturation of
the airplane during testing as well,” said Saj Ahmad, chief analyst with
StrategicAero Research, in an email. “Coupled with Boeing’s rate hike to 14
airplanes a month, this is not the only sizeable 787 [order] we’ll see. There
are others almost certainly ready to be revealed if they aren’t in the bag
already.”
This brief comment suggests Emirates was
walking hand in hand with Boeing during early validation tests on the 787-10.
One question must of have been answered during the Emirates participation
observing 787-10 testing. This model can stand the desert heat and deliver
flying efficiency beyond what its competitor can do.
A second clue from the above quote
indicates the 787-10's remarkable flexibility for long haul flights not
formerly indicated by Boeing's own publications. The 787-10 has outperformed
Boeing's own estimations documented before air frame testing was conducted. It
is capable of longer distances than first reported. The 787-10 doesn't have to
go beyond 7,000 miles, it just has to go where its potential customers travel.
The Emirates business philosophy is right sizing capability within a family of
aircraft which Airbus lacks.
There is no A-350-800 it’s a paper
airplane. The A-350-900 is a one trick pony and has more capability than
needed, so it hauls that unused capability everywhere while only meeting
maximum efficiency 10% of the time. The A-350-1000 steadily loses ground or has
a stagnate order book since many airlines cannot find a slot within its
business footprint. The 777X is a common ally to all of Boeing's other
aircraft. The A-350-1000 only has one friend, that in the A-350-900, making it
a family of aircraft I guess.
Airbus is losing the WB end of the
airplane spectrum rapidly because it cannot connect the dots from single aisle
to the A-380. Boeing has completed several important goals where Airbus has
failed to do so in response. A short list below describes the Airbus shortfalls
causing customers coming back to Boeing in numbers.
·
Incomplete A-350
Family from Top to Bottom.
·
Inability to counter
the 777X program
·
Cannot counter
Boeing's mid-range high density 787-10 slot with any of its aircraft.
·
Boeing buried its
747 Jumbo, Airbus can't give up the A-380 before its Break-even point.
The "Dubai
forty" 787-10 is a serious red flag for Airbus. Even if Emirates does
place an order for another 30 A-380’s it will have a hard time staying with the
A-380 as competitors continue with the Boeing family of aircraft. It will
become a one-off super Jumbo carrier. The other airlines will nip its heals
around the jumbo fleet.
However, Emirates realize
its ill-fated tacking move with the A-380 and it made a new tack in 2013
by ordering 150 of Boeing’s 777-X’s. Coincidentally, 150 units is a similar to
its 142 A-350 orders it has on the Airbus order book. The 787-10 fills an
important slot along with the 777X that will in time replace all it’s a-380’s.
The total wide body book for Boeing’s "new wide body" stands at 190 not counting
the 777-300-ER backlog.
Emirates has to replace its older 777’s in the next ten years. A
problem posed with Boeing’s marketing team. Some of the long range Boeing
commitment to its customers has been made with this Dubai 40 order. Emirates will need more
aircraft in its fleet to replace both the A-380 and its older 777’s. Another
airshow another day is the answer for this dilemma. Emirates will need another
100 wide body order in five years. Probably a 50-50 split with the 777X and the
787 family. It just has to wait to see if the 787-10 and 777X works as advertised during testing. It appears the 787-10 has accomplished its goals.
Emirates: "How Suite It Is"
The United Arab Emirates is installing first class suites towards the pointy end of its 777's. For those who work from 6:00 AM to 7:00 PM, here is a Dubai airshow promo of the the "Suite". No ticket price range for the seat was mentioned but when flying that high it is rude to ask how much it cost because by asking you can't afford it.
After studying this photo for some time the following complaints were listed.
The pitch is 40 square feet and boredom becomes a passenger's problem. It is much different in economy when passenger heights can vary from 19" to 80". Square foot comparisons could be made and its a squeezing attempt from economy's 3.6 sq ft per seat compared with the suite's 40 sq ft. Suite coffee is free in fact after purchasing a suite's ticket everything is free. Using the price per sq. ft. scientific calculation for the ticket may indicate how much it would cost to buy a suite ticket?
The economy of scale takes $.023 times 40 sq ft times 6,000 coming up with $5,550 dollars. Add cruise ship gratuity rates and "incidental costs" it quickly becomes $6,500 dollars for a suite from here to there.
The Emirates New 777-300-ER Suite
After studying this photo for some time the following complaints were listed.
- No Lou
- No Micro Wave
- No stocked refrigerator
- and finally no in-cabin personal attendant
The pitch is 40 square feet and boredom becomes a passenger's problem. It is much different in economy when passenger heights can vary from 19" to 80". Square foot comparisons could be made and its a squeezing attempt from economy's 3.6 sq ft per seat compared with the suite's 40 sq ft. Suite coffee is free in fact after purchasing a suite's ticket everything is free. Using the price per sq. ft. scientific calculation for the ticket may indicate how much it would cost to buy a suite ticket?
If an economy ticket cost $500 going 6,000 miles it works out to 2.3 cents per sq.ft-per seat-per mile.
The economy of scale takes $.023 times 40 sq ft times 6,000 coming up with $5,550 dollars. Add cruise ship gratuity rates and "incidental costs" it quickly becomes $6,500 dollars for a suite from here to there.
Airlines spend more time ciphering up a ticket price using a big spinning wheel similar to the ones found in Las Vegas, than what the Winging It team's clock indicated when fumble fingering a calculator. There should be a standard, not unlike an airlines efficiency metric called seat/ mile, when analyzing ticket prices.
In this case it could be called sq.ft/seat/mile or Economy sq.ft./seat/mile and so forth. However it may be sliced-up, suites represent a ludicrous profit dollar where economy covers the trip's operational costs and Business class represents a mix between profit percentages and its operational costs.
Emirates has a business plan and its involves copious amounts of cash.
Sunday, November 12, 2017
Winging It Said 50, Emirates Orders 40
Earlier, Winging It predicted about 50 787's would be ordered by Emirates in various models. However, (sometimes) a prediction can become wrong and it was missed by ten 787's and all 40 came-in as an Emirates order for 787-10's for $15.1 billion.
"So there should not have any additional 777X orders at this year's show. The only outlying is the 787-9 or 787-10. It could fill an Emirates fleet completeness having fifty ordered in a combination of the 787's. Its only speculation at this point, and no rumor is floating on that matter."
Winging It Article Link
Winging It Quote: November 7, 2017
"So there should not have any additional 777X orders at this year's show. The only outlying is the 787-9 or 787-10. It could fill an Emirates fleet completeness having fifty ordered in a combination of the 787's. Its only speculation at this point, and no rumor is floating on that matter."
Winging It Article Link
Dubai and The Tip Of The Wing November 7,2017
The show is just starting, it ain't over yet!
Saturday, November 11, 2017
Every Good Airplane Story Has a Beginning, Middle and End
Boeing has reported its on an exploratory mission for a new aircraft called MoM, NMA or 797 to name a few tags for this mission. The story begins with its chief competitor Airbus, with its A-321. Then there was the subplot with a thing called a 757 suffering a production retirement without a replacement in sight because of other ambitious projects; the 787, then Max and finally the 777X programs. Airbus was allowed to run the range of opportunity within an important segment chewing away at the single aisle big end of this market.
Chapter two begins with a simple title called "The Gap." It is an abandon place where airplane framers feared to tread, but had to go if it were to become the hero of this story. This gap is wedged between the 737 or A-320 single aisle airplanes and the dual aisle 787 wide body aircraft. The mathematicians were asked what a MoM would look like?
They tallied the inches in width of the 787, then added the inches in width of the 737 and divided its total by two to come up with a gap airplane width. The calculation was (216" + 132") / 2 = MoM or 174 inches, or for people liking feet in instead of inches its about 14.5 feet. The maker said we need an XWB MoM so it added another 5 inches to 14.5 and came up with a 15 foot wide cabin. The "bean counters stepped in with two aisles and seven across seating. The "knights" working late poke and prod its engineering way through big windows.
Studies where made with all its customers and more studies were conducted by its accountants and a summary report indicated a 797 "might" be a good idea. The maker then asked for more studies taking the story to the middle of it all. Its evil competitor was not impressed since they could do the same only 5" wider than the hero of this story even after it made its MoM 5" wider than 14.5 feet.
The story becomes complicated in the middle chapters. The serf's of this kingdom demanded less costs and the maker had to build its NMA selling for about $70 million as it would replace its old type selling for $200 million at list prices. The costs would be huge when considering an all new manufacturing and product concepts coming forward. Questions arose, could orders from the serfs be enough to pay for the development and then make a profit for the King?
The bookmark is on chapter 10 at this time and all the questions do not have answers so another study was ordered by its "wise" King from its northern county from the Northwest kingdom.
Out of nowhere comes news that the $200 million beast was not dead since the study and surveys suggested a launch customer for the 797 needs more time replacing its older fleet of beasts. A certain serf has about 40 aging beasts grazing the airspace and it would like those replaced by a like beast until the NMA is ready. Other serfs once again questioned this idea with a big What?, as they also place some beast orders?
This story is nowhere near an ending it only has moved to the part where it has established a villain, a MoM and some studies so far.
The King (of the) County issues another proclamation, "a study must be conducted this time "we" really mean it, and hear Ye, hear ye, call in the bean counters!"
The serfs of the world were gathering at a ball near Castle Dubai, awaiting to hear about the new study conducted by Prime Minister, Prince Everett.
A proclamation was issued from Castle Dubai from Prince Everett, "Long live MoM".
Chapter eleven-eleventy starts with a rumble of jet engines and the serfs cry out, "what happened to Seventy-seven (million dollars)?"
Some said, "we won't live long enough to see the MoM" and others just cried out, "NMA, NMA, NMA".
The King replied, "subtract two from eleven and add two sevens and you will have your 797, there is no seventy with your seven.
At this point math becomes too hard for the serfs.
The King chants, "one more study, one more study, one more study!" So all the polling data flooded in from all corners of the earth.
The evil empire says, "the market is too small and we can still do better", after offering no further explanation.
The King was distraught but unfazed by the evil empire's slighted quip.
He proclaims, "we have studies but I won't tell you what they say!"
The serfs become doubly anxious over having no NMA and feel orphaned from a non-existent MoM. They start wearing black Tee Shirts with a printed slogan, "Long Live The 797".
Chapter 15 starts the beginning of the end part of this story long after the Castle Dubai Ball had ended. Skipping to the last chapter, it starts with MoM going to the Farnborough England Ball and it slays the dragon. The maker proclaims, "The end will come after the last study is completed."
Chapter two begins with a simple title called "The Gap." It is an abandon place where airplane framers feared to tread, but had to go if it were to become the hero of this story. This gap is wedged between the 737 or A-320 single aisle airplanes and the dual aisle 787 wide body aircraft. The mathematicians were asked what a MoM would look like?
They tallied the inches in width of the 787, then added the inches in width of the 737 and divided its total by two to come up with a gap airplane width. The calculation was (216" + 132") / 2 = MoM or 174 inches, or for people liking feet in instead of inches its about 14.5 feet. The maker said we need an XWB MoM so it added another 5 inches to 14.5 and came up with a 15 foot wide cabin. The "bean counters stepped in with two aisles and seven across seating. The "knights" working late poke and prod its engineering way through big windows.
Studies where made with all its customers and more studies were conducted by its accountants and a summary report indicated a 797 "might" be a good idea. The maker then asked for more studies taking the story to the middle of it all. Its evil competitor was not impressed since they could do the same only 5" wider than the hero of this story even after it made its MoM 5" wider than 14.5 feet.
The story becomes complicated in the middle chapters. The serf's of this kingdom demanded less costs and the maker had to build its NMA selling for about $70 million as it would replace its old type selling for $200 million at list prices. The costs would be huge when considering an all new manufacturing and product concepts coming forward. Questions arose, could orders from the serfs be enough to pay for the development and then make a profit for the King?
The bookmark is on chapter 10 at this time and all the questions do not have answers so another study was ordered by its "wise" King from its northern county from the Northwest kingdom.
Out of nowhere comes news that the $200 million beast was not dead since the study and surveys suggested a launch customer for the 797 needs more time replacing its older fleet of beasts. A certain serf has about 40 aging beasts grazing the airspace and it would like those replaced by a like beast until the NMA is ready. Other serfs once again questioned this idea with a big What?, as they also place some beast orders?
This story is nowhere near an ending it only has moved to the part where it has established a villain, a MoM and some studies so far.
The King (of the) County issues another proclamation, "a study must be conducted this time "we" really mean it, and hear Ye, hear ye, call in the bean counters!"
The serfs of the world were gathering at a ball near Castle Dubai, awaiting to hear about the new study conducted by Prime Minister, Prince Everett.
A proclamation was issued from Castle Dubai from Prince Everett, "Long live MoM".
Chapter eleven-eleventy starts with a rumble of jet engines and the serfs cry out, "what happened to Seventy-seven (million dollars)?"
Some said, "we won't live long enough to see the MoM" and others just cried out, "NMA, NMA, NMA".
The King replied, "subtract two from eleven and add two sevens and you will have your 797, there is no seventy with your seven.
At this point math becomes too hard for the serfs.
The King chants, "one more study, one more study, one more study!" So all the polling data flooded in from all corners of the earth.
The evil empire says, "the market is too small and we can still do better", after offering no further explanation.
The King was distraught but unfazed by the evil empire's slighted quip.
He proclaims, "we have studies but I won't tell you what they say!"
The serfs become doubly anxious over having no NMA and feel orphaned from a non-existent MoM. They start wearing black Tee Shirts with a printed slogan, "Long Live The 797".
Not Mom
Photo credit from The Telegraph
What Does It Take To Blog?
A great support Team that encourages you everyday when faced with problems. Snickers-the-dog encourages me everyday to get busy even when I'm tired. She is the best.
Friday, November 10, 2017
More 777-300ER Orders = More 777X Orders
One critical point Boeing had to face was a diminishing 777 300-ER order book in front of the initial production of its new 777X models made in the same assembly space. Boeing needed more 777-300-ER's ordered before it could build its first 777X. The by-product of this sentiment is the unintended consequence of selling more 777-X's than anticipated because of the strength of sales of the 777-300-ER.
The Dubai airshow next week will feature at its front and center the Emirates newest 777-300-ER delivered. This 777 will have a fantastic customer environment with its expansive seating arrangement, it wants to impress the world with this static display. Hardly a death knell for the 777-300-ER.
Emirates may be up to something once again (2013 777X orders) and it will become known next week what it is. It is also important to note that Emirates massive show display in the main pavilion is only a few feet away from Boeing's somewhat smaller display at the main entrance going into the show. The 777-300-ER should get an order nod at the show with some more orders. The pride of the middle east sits just outside with Emirates complete fleet by type on static display. The 777-300-ER it just received is a star at the show.
Boeing had a plan that it needed more 777's classics until the 777X made its first delivery in 2020 or possibly sooner. Boeing has about 111 classic 777's including its freight version to build and deliver until the 777X is ready as of October 31, 2017. It also has 326 of its 777X's on order as well. In total Boeing has an October ending backlog of 437 777 units it will build over the next half dozen years.
Seeking Alpha just reported; "China Southern Airlines airlines committed to the purchase of 30 Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft and 8 Boeing 777-300-ER's..."
Boeing, whom is counting the days and weeks it needs to keep its 777 assembly line full, prices the 777 classic so low its an offer a customer can't refuse. Boeing is looking beyond the 777X entry into service as demonstrated at next weeks Dubai Airshow with Emirates' 777 static display. The eight 777-300-ER just signed for by China Southern demonstrates that a full conversion from the 777-ER to the 777X production schedule will allow for more 777-ER sales until full rate 777X production is achieved.
Dubai Airshow could be a 777 completeness show where Boeing will end up with enough classic 777's ordered and more 787's to boot. After-all Boeing is rubbing shoulders with Emirates at the main pavilion's front door. A second point is for every 777-300-ER ordered it will represent a fleet renewal opportunity for Boeing's 777-X's over the next 10 years. If airline growth continues as predicted, the 777X will dominate the LR Wide body growth. Instead of 326 units currently on order it could conceivably exceed 500 total 777X sales by 2021. Boeing will have made the production assembly conversion from 777-300-ER to the 777X and it will have been a success.
The Dubai airshow next week will feature at its front and center the Emirates newest 777-300-ER delivered. This 777 will have a fantastic customer environment with its expansive seating arrangement, it wants to impress the world with this static display. Hardly a death knell for the 777-300-ER.
Emirates may be up to something once again (2013 777X orders) and it will become known next week what it is. It is also important to note that Emirates massive show display in the main pavilion is only a few feet away from Boeing's somewhat smaller display at the main entrance going into the show. The 777-300-ER should get an order nod at the show with some more orders. The pride of the middle east sits just outside with Emirates complete fleet by type on static display. The 777-300-ER it just received is a star at the show.
Boeing had a plan that it needed more 777's classics until the 777X made its first delivery in 2020 or possibly sooner. Boeing has about 111 classic 777's including its freight version to build and deliver until the 777X is ready as of October 31, 2017. It also has 326 of its 777X's on order as well. In total Boeing has an October ending backlog of 437 777 units it will build over the next half dozen years.
Seeking Alpha just reported; "China Southern Airlines airlines committed to the purchase of 30 Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft and 8 Boeing 777-300-ER's..."
Boeing, whom is counting the days and weeks it needs to keep its 777 assembly line full, prices the 777 classic so low its an offer a customer can't refuse. Boeing is looking beyond the 777X entry into service as demonstrated at next weeks Dubai Airshow with Emirates' 777 static display. The eight 777-300-ER just signed for by China Southern demonstrates that a full conversion from the 777-ER to the 777X production schedule will allow for more 777-ER sales until full rate 777X production is achieved.
Dubai Airshow could be a 777 completeness show where Boeing will end up with enough classic 777's ordered and more 787's to boot. After-all Boeing is rubbing shoulders with Emirates at the main pavilion's front door. A second point is for every 777-300-ER ordered it will represent a fleet renewal opportunity for Boeing's 777-X's over the next 10 years. If airline growth continues as predicted, the 777X will dominate the LR Wide body growth. Instead of 326 units currently on order it could conceivably exceed 500 total 777X sales by 2021. Boeing will have made the production assembly conversion from 777-300-ER to the 777X and it will have been a success.
Thursday, November 9, 2017
Boeing Wows Its Order Book 11-9-17
Boeing orders stayed quiet since October 26th, until... it now has a big order book reveal of 69 orders booked in the last two weeks. All that can be said, is wow! Below is the update chart according to Boeing's own data provided on Boeing.com. However this is a Winging Chart for its own tracking sanity.
The important notes are the torrid pace of 787 orders for YTD 2017. It now stands at 96 net 787 orders. A second observation is how strong the Max and NG single aisle program is doing in 2017. A combined net 440 single aisle units have been ordered this year. The Airbus order log for November can't be updated until early December when its posts its own order progress including November 2017. It is probably safe to say Boeing will top Airbus in total book value and units for 2017 unless an order materializes out of thin air before final counts are reported. The total net Boeing units order now stands at 605 units for 2017 making a 1 to 1 book to bill ratio a true possibility.
Boeing Order Recap 11-9-2017
The important notes are the torrid pace of 787 orders for YTD 2017. It now stands at 96 net 787 orders. A second observation is how strong the Max and NG single aisle program is doing in 2017. A combined net 440 single aisle units have been ordered this year. The Airbus order log for November can't be updated until early December when its posts its own order progress including November 2017. It is probably safe to say Boeing will top Airbus in total book value and units for 2017 unless an order materializes out of thin air before final counts are reported. The total net Boeing units order now stands at 605 units for 2017 making a 1 to 1 book to bill ratio a true possibility.
Wednesday, November 8, 2017
Boeing's 14 A Month Announcement for 787's Is Much Bigger News
The Boeing slight of hand announcing of an additional two units a month on top of its consistent 12 a month 787 production, signals something big is going on with Boeing in the back rooms. A long standing Randy's Journal has been quiet for almost five months and he is Boeing's VP of marketing. This other flag raised signals Randy is really busy. Increased production and a silent Boeing VP Randy Tinseth indicates something big will be breaking soon. It maybe in small chunks or a large mega order.
It is known that several 787 small orders are floating about. One with six Egypt Air and another 10 coming into a "mention" by a quietly reported airline emergence. These don't represent a mega order but signals a high level of activity is going on behind the scenes and Boeing is winning some small but important battles against its competitor, Airbus.
The 14 a month 787 production announcement tells a story that Boeing's teamwork is paying out order dividends at the least. The production research, pending orders and accounting have all come together and it is agreed fourteen 787 a month is sustainable and needed. The sustainable word becomes important as it is a direct reference link to its marketing arm. Boeing has more 787 sales going into 2018. Teamwork from top to bottom analyses everything before a production announcement like this is made. All the corporate cogs and wheels are turning smoothly.
Keeping a closely held hand private keeps the press guessing on what will happen next for the wide bodied industry. The Boeing emphasis is about the 787-10 and 777X programs. It is an often repeated comment by Boeing there will be more 787-10 sales after it enters into service with Singapore Airlines. Even though it will not fly as far as the A-350-900 or -1000, it will fly more efficiently within its market segment. The segment is high density passenger load under 6,000 miles. It will do that better than an A-350-900 which is always carrying along its long distance capability when flying within the highly lucrative under 6,000 mile market. That is why more 787-10's will be ordered.
The 777X is another big deal Boeing will churn out in the next couple of years. Boeing has dialed up its new plane development recipe since the 787-8 early days. Boeing now knows how run a program for success while using its all new technology at its disposal. The Everett wing plant was not a show stopper but a game changer for the 777X program. It had the equipment subcontractor just down the street and it had proprietary carbon fiber technology in its grasp. Hence the wing plant, is now making 100' wing spars with automated equipment. The assembly plant is next door by only several dozen feet. Sounds efficient.
Boeing's new theme is to control what you can control and hire out those things which would be inefficient for it to do for itself. Boeing has pulled back in some of its airplane related build constructs as contractors did not meet Boeing's expectations of a supplier partner. The fourteen a month 787 announcement is an indicator Boeing has control over its wide body programs.
Another mention for the 777X is a note where the 777-9X replaces the 747 and the 777-8X replaces the 777-300-ER. Considering the A-380 dismal order numbers during the last three years having 777-9X orders could effectively kill the A-380 program.
However, in a A-380 make-over developing new suites and luxurious seats will make the A-380 a desirable frame for those who can afford the ticket to cruise in the air like an Ocean going vessel it so wants to be. So far the A-380 in twelve years, has sold about 317 flying cruise ships and delivered about 216 of its type. The 777X program in the last four years sold 326 777-X's before its first delivery.
A philosophy for the 777X program is that it has a bigger market for people who need to get there in comfort at a lower price allowing them to spend their resources at the destination. The A-380 is selling the journey is better than what the destination offers. If flying from London to Hawaii and watching TV in Bed is a must, then the A-380 suite is for you. Boeing is betting more people will book a flight having substantial amenities exceeding those found on most other aircraft at a price most other people can afford.
Using an old American football metaphor, Boeing is dinking and dunking its way down the field with its array of wide body types and Airbus is throwing long on every down with its A-350's and A-380's. Boeing has a very good prevent defense.
It is known that several 787 small orders are floating about. One with six Egypt Air and another 10 coming into a "mention" by a quietly reported airline emergence. These don't represent a mega order but signals a high level of activity is going on behind the scenes and Boeing is winning some small but important battles against its competitor, Airbus.
The 14 a month 787 production announcement tells a story that Boeing's teamwork is paying out order dividends at the least. The production research, pending orders and accounting have all come together and it is agreed fourteen 787 a month is sustainable and needed. The sustainable word becomes important as it is a direct reference link to its marketing arm. Boeing has more 787 sales going into 2018. Teamwork from top to bottom analyses everything before a production announcement like this is made. All the corporate cogs and wheels are turning smoothly.
Keeping a closely held hand private keeps the press guessing on what will happen next for the wide bodied industry. The Boeing emphasis is about the 787-10 and 777X programs. It is an often repeated comment by Boeing there will be more 787-10 sales after it enters into service with Singapore Airlines. Even though it will not fly as far as the A-350-900 or -1000, it will fly more efficiently within its market segment. The segment is high density passenger load under 6,000 miles. It will do that better than an A-350-900 which is always carrying along its long distance capability when flying within the highly lucrative under 6,000 mile market. That is why more 787-10's will be ordered.
The 777X is another big deal Boeing will churn out in the next couple of years. Boeing has dialed up its new plane development recipe since the 787-8 early days. Boeing now knows how run a program for success while using its all new technology at its disposal. The Everett wing plant was not a show stopper but a game changer for the 777X program. It had the equipment subcontractor just down the street and it had proprietary carbon fiber technology in its grasp. Hence the wing plant, is now making 100' wing spars with automated equipment. The assembly plant is next door by only several dozen feet. Sounds efficient.
Boeing's new theme is to control what you can control and hire out those things which would be inefficient for it to do for itself. Boeing has pulled back in some of its airplane related build constructs as contractors did not meet Boeing's expectations of a supplier partner. The fourteen a month 787 announcement is an indicator Boeing has control over its wide body programs.
Another mention for the 777X is a note where the 777-9X replaces the 747 and the 777-8X replaces the 777-300-ER. Considering the A-380 dismal order numbers during the last three years having 777-9X orders could effectively kill the A-380 program.
However, in a A-380 make-over developing new suites and luxurious seats will make the A-380 a desirable frame for those who can afford the ticket to cruise in the air like an Ocean going vessel it so wants to be. So far the A-380 in twelve years, has sold about 317 flying cruise ships and delivered about 216 of its type. The 777X program in the last four years sold 326 777-X's before its first delivery.
A philosophy for the 777X program is that it has a bigger market for people who need to get there in comfort at a lower price allowing them to spend their resources at the destination. The A-380 is selling the journey is better than what the destination offers. If flying from London to Hawaii and watching TV in Bed is a must, then the A-380 suite is for you. Boeing is betting more people will book a flight having substantial amenities exceeding those found on most other aircraft at a price most other people can afford.
Using an old American football metaphor, Boeing is dinking and dunking its way down the field with its array of wide body types and Airbus is throwing long on every down with its A-350's and A-380's. Boeing has a very good prevent defense.
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