Boeing's Deferred Cost Soften During Third QTR

Boeing has been tap dancing around deferred cost for some time with its 787, KC-46 programs or the 737 Max programs. It is not to say they cannot become profitable over the long haul from having a swelling Deferred Cost notebook. However, it is to say the program risks do pile up in the form of cash as deferred cost.

Every Boeing risk can show up on a project can turn into a deferred cost line item. So what is the Gremlin called "Deferred Cost", set aside from a program profitability structure. As mentioned before on this Blog a recognition is given for this occurrence and moved off a project's books and set in its own room until further notice. Boeing can recover the accumulation of this cost through judicious use from its solutions gained while expending capital for mitigating of any risk encountered. The 787 project had more than 27 Billion deferred problems encountered during its inception until the end of the third quarter 2015. The accumulation of risk cost has been deferred into this pot during the journey from R & D to current production.

The 787 has only accumulated about a 2% gain in deferred cost during the third quarter which is a decrease from about a 8% increases found during 2013. The big news is the 787 learning curve on the factory floor. The Dreamliner is becoming a very efficient build from start to finish, pushing 787's out the door without expectations of any mishap in process. 

This is called a cash cow in the industry. More aircraft made this way reduces the margin of deferred cost or having accounting value set aside because it's viewed as part of the overarching development of the aircraft. A true per unit profitability has not been obtained through its continuation of R&D expenditures, nor experiencing other risks it has encountered during its deployment to customers. 

However the day is coming where the 787 will have a benchmark moment where Boeing will have an actual cost for the 787 which will give the 787 an actual profit mechanism. 

The deferred cost account then can have a contribution towards its reduction, coming from the 787 production flow and other programs borrowing from the 787 lessons learned and risk resolutions applied to its own program. Accounting is for people who love order out of chaos.

Boeing has a backlog window to achieve its cash goals providing a little more time for the 787 profitability segregated from deferred cost.

Winging It Fall Reading Assignment

Every so often, "Winging It" likes to put out a reading assignment worthy of anyone's time that loves aviation, and the churnings of the Business. Today, a CAPA article made the cut featuring Ethiopian Airlines, a long favorite topic of this blog. The first delivered 787's went to Ethiopian Airlines when Winging It first said, "watch Ethiopian and see what they will do with the 787 and its profits".

EthiopianAirlines: Dreamliner boosted profits

Christmas Past Winging It Quote: 2012-2013 Circa

“Another look is for Ethiopian Airlines in what the 787 does for its bottom line.  They will be a good case study, since they own such a smaller number of aircraft and fly long routes. The 787 will have an immediate impact from its operations, where you will see how it drives the bottom line at the end of next fiscal year.  This is a manageable study of its business plan and bottom line. You may gain a distinct appreciation for the 787's financial impact on Ethiopian  Airlines."

Now the Capa Reading assignment <<Link

The 787 May Never Show Boeing The Money But...

Currently the 787 program has dug a "Never Mind" development hole of Billions of dollars. The accountants slide this pile of money aside from the current 787 costing and revenue spin cycle. The "hole” pile of money will never see the light of day until burning receipts on Boeing's 787 free of debt day.

Plan B has moved into plan A. All Boeing aircraft are on deck. USE 787 technology for new programs so Boeing can burn through its already accumulated R&D costs expended on the 787 program. The 777X and the 737 Max programs are borrowing from the 27 Billion of Boeing cash pit lost on the 787 program during the last ten years. Even the KC-46 has a 787 avionics arrangement in its pilot’s cabin. The 787 was not especially for the 787, it was for all of Boeing's family of aircraft.

The $27 Billion hole was for every flying example in the Boeing family and can only be recovered through a family counselling session.  All that money thrown in the pit is stand aside money for Boeing programs concurrently moving forward. If the KC-46 uses 787 avionics then let the accountants move some money out of the 787 money pit into the KC-46 program. If 100 more 787 are delivered then move some more money out of that same pit as a consistent rate under the flag of profitability of each 787. However, if all 787 deliveries are made, it won't eliminate the Boeing money pit. It needs other programs to prosper and spread that pit of debt proportionally amongst each program with due diligence, according to its own borrowings of technology from the 787 program. 

Perhaps the 777X uses laminar flow technology from the 787 program or it uses engine development and other core Technology breakthroughs, paid from the Boeing money pit. The accountants will attack the money pile with a vengeance and reduce the debt accordingly. The money backtrack can make the 787 profitable when the pile is gone. Every executive gets a complimentary backslap when the money pit is gone, not by the doings of a stand-alone 787 program, but the Boeing family of aircraft and military programs borrowing from the 787's $27 billion dollar pit of costs set asides. Accounting is an opportunity for annual meeting speeches.

In real terms the 787 program wasn't about the 787, but was about catching and passing Airbus from a strategic standpoint. It had to leap frog Airbus from top to bottom in development and position. Going from a commonality perspective to an engine application throughout its family of aircraft. Mission was accomplished and Boeing has retooled its marketing reflecting it has beat Airbus at its own game. The Money pit is not a 787 debt for which the 787 will never pay back and be called profitable. It's a companywide money pit for every aircraft going forward which will be profitable from the sum of its parts. Every Boeing program will take from a 787 spawned systems, ideas, or parts and write downs from the Boeing 27 Billion dollar 787 hole.

Boeing Vision statement has to have the 777X, Max, and KC-46 (747-8i) for making the 787 profitable.  After all it's the sum of all Boeing's parts.

Air India Delays Incompetence By Not Charging Boeing

Air India's much misaligned National air carrier who has for so long complained about 787 glitching out on so many scheduled flights, has now made a mature decision for its 787. It will not charge Boeing for its delivery delays with compensation on its last six models yet to be delivered. 

The original delivery schedule for those six 787 were have to occurred during July 2015 through March 2016. The AI schedule now moves to a later date of November 2016 through August 2018. 

The no talk position by its airline leaders suggests other possibilities than just shutting up about the 787 problems it has encountered. Winging It has always considered, AI not ready for a prime time player renovating its fleet with the 787 aircraft. They are just not ready for supporting the most technologically advanced aircraft in the world. They have acted as if they are a third world operation complaining about all the technological glitches Boeing has caused them.

The other world airlines have received copious quantity of 787. The likes of Japan Airlines, ANA and United have had their fair shares of "problems", since first delivery of the 787. Battery failures, landing gear issues and fire just to name a few problems other have experienced during the last four years.  

However, Air India has come out as one of the biggest complainers of problems of which none of its problems have even reached the same level of problems by the leading airlines just mentioned. Air India has finally grown up with its 787. The problems are mitigated through both Boeing and Air India's participation. They have grown up and are ready to go get the last six units entered into its production slots. No longer will they publicly lambast Boeing for its problems. Every aircraft ever made has its problems. 

Every airline ever operated also contributes to those problems. Air India does not get to escape that distinction of being exempt from responsibility when preparing for new technology which every other airline had prepared for, and then goes and mitigates glitches in a systematic order. ANA knew it had to gain an operational level never before considered when taking on its first high tech 787. 

Air India appeared to have a nonchalant attitude of business as usual with its 787 problems. That idea didn't fly well with the 787 on deck. Air India was behind the operational curve from the start. Even with all the glitching, they weren't prepared well for the inflight events and wanted to assign blame rather than assign technicians to the source problem. They called Boeing instead and complained and wanted more money for its trouble with the 787.

The question remains, why does Air India have all the problems and all rotten luck flying the 787, when others have had problems, but the others also make its own luck fixing problems instead of going to the press over it?

The answer is simple and here it is: Everybody having a 787 has grown up flying it in a very fast sequence. Air India is politically dependent of its country. So every politician or AI CEO politicize the problems so no responsibility is passed, "on their watch". Boeing then takes a public flogging from Air India's experience of multiple mishaps. Air India is about to lose part of its order (6-787) unless somebody takes responsibility for the 787 they own, just as all major airlines have done during its own difficult 787 times, they take "ownership" and move forward.

Plan B Air India: Nobody talks about the deal we have with Boeing fixing our problems. "People, we have a problem", and Boeing is going to fix it! Nobody talks, unless you resign from your well paid job first. Zip it up! Boeing is going to fix our problems and Air India will receive the delivery of six more 787's from Boeing starting in one years through 2018. 

Air India not to seek compensation from Boeing for delayed deliveries of 6 Dreamliner aircrafts 

Complaining is now off the table as the Air India begins acting like an Airline. The culture of blame has died as a way of staying on the job. Air India is growing up at last.    

More Orders Will Fall Into Boeing's Lap During 2015

It ain't over till it's over is the theme for this year ordering for Boeing, as it closes off 2015. I have termed the issue as "Hanging Orders", much like Broward County’s hanging chad during the Broward County Florida, USA presidential vote count, the year back then is the 2000 election cycle. George Bush won it, despite the hanging Chad.

The year is 2015 and aviation sloths need a big magnifying glass for its cogent analysis for the upcoming final count on the Boeing final tally. I have copiously surveyed the news nuggets and come up with this news nugget from our friends at Flight Global:

"Moreover, on 24 September Boeing issued a vague statement that China Aviation Supplies Holding Company, which buys jets for China’s airlines, would obtain 190 737s and 50 unspecified wide bodies. Some of these aircraft, when confirmed, will likely be 787s."

When it will be a confirmed statement is a 2015 matter, I assume Sherlock. China will be rocking the Boeing Order Book making chump change out of the Middle East’s aspirations for dominance during 2015, possibly?

EVA Order Shaping Up With 24 787-10's

EVA (Taiwan) air has moved towards a 787 order with Boeing's largest 787-10. It will order 24 airplanes for its fleet. Included in the order is two more 777-300ER totaling $8 Billion booked, if order progression fly's onward. Winging It has suggested this order was done a few months back. 

Winging It Link: July 2015

(Boeing 2nd Quarter, EVA Airways plans to buy 24 to 26 Boeing 787 jets)

It was one of Boeing's hanging order predictions now coming into fruition. Another prediction was Boeing going for 100 plus 787 orders for 2015. This is an important step for that goal. However, Russian aviation has just announced a cancellation of about 22 of its 787 from Boeing books. It ain't over until it's over, and Boeing is offering a plea bargain with Aeroflot at this time.

Another order card holder is Emirates. The “Fall” is still young, and Boeing can still yet reach 100-787 ordered during 2015.

Microlattice Doesn't Reinvent The 787 But It Could Revolutionise It

Micro-Lattice is a micro light material from processing existing materials like metals into a super light and super strong matrix with the lightness of a dandelion seed head. A primary application could be used in aircraft components and automotive structures. Any area having a potential for compression and shock would benefit from it as it is more shock absorbent than bubble wrap, while having a significant greater structural integrity and significantly less weight. Let's just image this new invention on the Dreamliner in areas now occupied by heavier materials, having less applicable dynamic function than what any current material can provide. The floor decking, seating constructs, and wall panels fly off of any brainstorming session with ideas, as if the 787 could just as well float. The "egg" or the passenger, could sit in a Microlattice seat protecting it like it would from a terminal velocity fall from a 25 story building. Beneath them is a microlattice floor. Finally the lab suggest a wall panel protecting passengers from side impact. However, all this magic weighs thousands of pounds less than what currently flies on the Dreamliner making it more efficient. Watch for this implementation on all Boeing products as soon as it can finish its development for many more applications protecting the consumer. 

Please stand-by for an article link, and its short Boeing video below:

This Incredibly Strong Metal Mesh Is 100 Times Lighter Than Styrofoam

Boeing's KC-46 Tanker Testing On Target

Air Force's new Oklahoma-bound aerial refueler passes crucial flight test

Oklahoma Bound KC-46 tanker looking good on the flying test block. During an inflight ferrying to Tinker Air Force base in Oklahoma City today, the tanker function is tested with step one. Deploying its center drogue line (s). Mission accomplished.

 Tinker AFB KC-46 for Service

As simple as this sounds it is more of the indication of how you test an extremely complex function. Becoming a flying gas station at 200 miles per hour with multiple customers pulling up to the pump is dangerous. Even though this benchmark has already been achieved by the Old(er) KC-135 types, but in this case the drogue boom is rigged to handle the kitchen sink of war birds from helicopters to the F-35 spectrum of technology.

Altus AFB Training Center For KC-46 Crews

It marks a significant test envelop for refueling and can now go forward by subjecting systems to more complex conditions which will excite the crews and observers. Finding out how the KC-46 maintains refueling stability under various conditions of multi speed envelopes, weather and war conditions. It will also test systems with a fully loaded combat configured aircraft before the first fighter craft can come up to KC-46 and fuel.

Today’s News, suggests bumps in the road for the tanker are in the manageable arena. Those testing glitches may hide in the lab, but what goes on-board the KC-46 during this point forward, has been cleansed with a fully operation stamp awaiting the KC-46 airborne run for full validation.

However, this is not to say teething woes do not circle the KC-46 program. Those woes are pinned up on the ground where they will remain until development assurances allows it on board the tanker.

The KC-46 test passed a milestone flying to Oklahoma. Tinker AFB arrival, signals the program has shifted its step from theory room to the practice stag. The AF is really good at this function. Boeing is pushing hard but also is ready for this step. Program confidence has entered the manageable phase with its loaded concept going through incremental testing. Glitches are no longer the News, but testing’s expectation for finding its limits is the News. Expect some problems. That is what real time testing is for finding those limits. 

The problems are now contained in a smaller circle on the diagram chart. Any potential catastrophic problems remain on Boeing's program neck. Any nominal problem is in the flying phase. The recent problems before this flight to Tinker, were a squeezing into a time frame of Boeing’s gasping trek to the finish line. They wrote off cost in a last gasp, they experienced fuel line contamination losing another month or two in time. It’s now go time at Tinker. It’s all systems on-the-go, and let’s improve its results. It’s a no longer in the fix it stage, but it’s in “The improve it” stage during its flying phase.

"D*** The Budget- Full Steam Ahead"

The DDG 1000 series of three ships is about to hit the budget wall. Several factors are lining up for this battle on the congressional check writers podium. The first and most important factor is the need/function ratio as an implied 1/1 ratio for rating its importance for our national defense for anytime. The Arleigh Burke class destroyer currently reigns supreme in its class and continues to be built, albeit, in a more stop gap manner, than as an ultimate defender that could operate both in littoral and Blue waters, as the DDG 1000 Zumwalt promises. The Zumwalt is rapidly approaching the Need/Function ratio of "1".

Let's face it, the Zumwalt class is in experimental mode at this time, and has yet become deployed. It does not have all systems on deck currently. Its second sibling is just currently assembling at BIW Maine. A third and "last" Zumwalt type is stacking paper and Iron at the same time waiting for cash. The cost for copy one, Zumwalt is Billions, Copy two is probably a third less and so forth for its third sister. The Arleigh Burke has hit maximum production value through long term build efficiency. By now any adversarial Navy has its number.

The one great thing going for the Zumwalt class destroyer is its lethality potential. Since it has not deployed on mission with a full complement of its capability, the word potential is a weak word to take into battle. It needs to demonstrate its nominal capabilities and not necessarily its secret capabilities.  The Zumwalt need's not to live on its potential, but how it handles the reality of the world we live in through exercising stealth, battlefield management, and multiple operational tasks imposed upon it during times of national defense.

Before closing off a program, let's see what it can do, its true capability! The Zumwalt may have a greater capability than two Arleigh Burkes. It may make the F-35 more relevant a more capable Navy platform. The sum of the Navy parts should include the Zumwalt, and not a multitude of DDG -51's.

The Zumwalt has both stealth, advanced battlefield awareness greater than the prior generations of Navy ships. Its construction cost reduces as more units are produced. A fact of lean production favors the more builds, the cheaper the costs. The Arleigh Burke class has become a stop gap placeholder for the Zumwalt arrival. The Works In Progress class ship will have some teething issues as all advancements customarily have because every time something completely new and different, has no precedence for which to lean on for a role model or lessons learned. That "New" and "Different" has an internal cost for which no one can ever get its arms around.

However, when something as big as the Zumwalt steams out, the new lessons learned multiply. The real test is a pass or fail situation, where if the Zumwalt works as expected, and its supporting systems are not a colossal failure in concept, the Navy has a winner. Because, using it over and over again pounds out the program dents. It's the program cracks that ends a program, not Congress. The Navy Secretary currently has his hammer in hand before the Congress and is now saying there are no cracks in the Zumwalt program. Let's bring this ship home.

 

Lest we forget looking at its novel hull and its Carbon Fiber deck house one would think this non Iron clad could not hold up in battle. The secret is inside. The outside is just for Radar, detection, and speed. Under the hood are power plants that could light up a community of 2,500 homes. It also can send a projectile 75 miles every so many seconds. The impact of the tip of this spear would cause great destruction. Its newly developed counter measures for any incoming attacks makes it extremely reliant during battle. 

 

The greatest danger the military has is its over reliance on the old concepts of warfare, and not learning a better more efficient way of battle management. The F-35 program suffers this military attitude malaise over it performance numbers. Pilots also testing the aircraft suffer similar impressions at times citing, the F-16 flies faster or nimbler having superior aircraft performance numbers. Then they begin to appreciate and understand the wide range of capability of its sea, land, and air warfare management. The real part of the problem is having pilots tests the F-35 up to its original design features, where combat with the F-35 is not about the fourth generation fighter culture, but about the fifth generation capabilities as originally it was purposed. A new way of aerial combat does not sync well with fourth generation until you have the fifth generation F-35 supervising the F-16's in a battle situation. The F-35 multi-tasking machine allows and informs the F-16 wing of the situational issues by priority, so the F-16 only becomes a more formidable foe than what its own systems would allow it, if the F-35 was not present in the battlespace.  

The Zumwalt has a similar characteristic in that it also would inform and relay information with the Arleigh Burke Class destroyers, much in the same way the F-35 can do for the F-16. It can fight as an Island, and then sail with the fleet adding to it an exponential capability. It offers unmitigated fire power. It's a dangerous ship Congress can't afford not to have at its disposal. 

The Newest Battleground Market Is China

Boeing isn't sitting still on the obvious. China is the market to be the the leader in aircraft insertion. Its in the center quadrant  for north of the equator with Long range potential opened by both Boeing and Airbus. The 7778X is an obvious selection for aircraft for the mission as Ethiopian has just demonstrated by nixing the A350-1000 for the 7778X. The litmus test Boeing offered for its 777X was too positive for Ethiopian and Addis Abba to pass up.

I've read about Addis Abba's average temperature of 69 degrees year around and in every month. It's better than Hawaii's 80 F on stand-by. The only setback is no luxurious beach. It's landlocked. But that shouldn't stop any destination developer from exploiting the city, since the Boeing family of aircraft can get you there from anywhere.

China is the real topic. They have several, if not more Addis adda type features within its region. However none exactly like the heart of Africa. Airbus built a single aisle A320 factory, nine years ago, and now Boeing "Doubled Down" on Airbus with an upcoming 737 single Aisle factory for China and Boeing. The industrial aviation temperature for China is rising. But China still has location, location, and location for incoming landing's for the 787, 777 and others. Research suggest you can really get there from here and here etc. China wants a piece of the Addis Abba action for temperate climate zones even without having a beach, but they have beaches in the South East China.

China is rapidly becoming aviation important, because two conditions exist. 1. A Billion plus population and 2. having more people earning wages than the US has people at any given time.

Its location makes China the perfect transportation storm for the world. Much like the United States, it enjoys location with climate and industry. It needs airplanes to gain its ascendancy in the market place. In order to do that, they need to make money using airplanes, and it will diligently ascend to its place with the world market through time. China is really good at doing time. It's been around as a culture for a very long time, if counting 4,000 years a really long time.

The battleground has shifted from America to Europe and then to the  Middle East, as if a switch were thrown each time, turning on its moment for aviation and things. In a short dynasty of time, China will be competing, if not already.