Project Sunrise A Boeing Necessity

Boeing is hoping Qantas Company will buy the 777-8X for its Project Sunrise selection for its Qantas Airlines. A win here for Boeing would be for bragging rights which it would relish having over Airbus. The potential deal is advertising money on the table so prices on a fleet order will plunge per unit ordered by Qantas at the end of its. project. The 777-8X is about 375 million as is but the price could plunge as this is a high profile deal for this type of widebody. Airbus, on the other hand, is modifying its A350 proposal to go the distance with passengers near 300. But Boeing has the wings and that GE9X engine.

The 777-8X is configured for about 353 seats, but distances and hours should give passengers more space and airlines more distance it requires. Both makers have formidable offers but since BA just ordered 18/24 777Xs the emotional momentum has shifted to Boeing's winning the Project Sunrise offering.

The 777-8x will drop off about 75 passenger seats, down to a sensible 275 passenger "load". It will have the folding 235-foot wing which Airbus will not match unless it wants its A350-1000 to fit into abandoned A-380 terminal slots found in about 60 airports around the world. The 777X wing will fit anywhere the 787 flies. Qantas is keen on Airbus at this time just for pricing advantages over Boeing's offer. Remember the advertising account and what a Boeing 777X selection would do for future sales?

Price will drop to about 200 million per unit making Alan Joyce a little more comfortable with big ideas backed by investors. The next question is how many orders. That discussing has already happened with the two big makers in the running. Nothing less than 20 units ordered would do for any manufacturer. I would guess the orders would flow as follows for the winner. Qantas must order 20 with a 20 option in place for ten years. Or in other words about 17 billion at list prices before discounts.

Aviation wars are a funny business and it's hard to predict how things will work out for any maker. But Boeing is more able to drop price than Airbus. It's more able to morph the 777-8X into a globe trotter as it will have slightly more range than the A-350-1000 configured for Project Sunrise. Boeing knows Alan Joyce wants 300 seats for this venture but "close" to 300 seats is what either maker will offer. A Boeing deal will be made because Boeing has the Wings and the Engines. Both makers can do the internal amenities for passengers, including a boudoir for most. Boeing can and will go 9,000 miles easily where Airbus will have to trick out an offering with more fuel and fewer seats to make that range.

Airbus will have to go 250 seats with its A-350-1000 and some extra fuel tanks to boot. Allan Joyce may think 250 seats is not profitable and what he had in mind. He wants those 300 seats! Ticket prices need to fall to fill 300 seats to go 9,000 miles each time. Going from Sydney Australia to London, westward, against the wind on most days is difficult and dangerous when the weather changes mid-flight. The aircraft may have to fly around a bit and burn more fuel and serve more amenities when it stays aloft for 21 hours instead of 20 hours. Egads!

The time on board will necessitate space and kiosks for the passengers and crews as well. People need to move around, sleep and browse about the cabin for 20 hours of duration. A seat can only stay so long at the movies or on the web. The amenity offering will be an interesting proposition most air travel people only think of after 12 hours in the air. Sleep is one part of that equation as is seat time. The open variable is plan B. Browsing the cabin.

British Airways Buys Boeing 777X Big

Instead of Airbus turning the tables on Boeing, the table turned on Airbus as BA choose the 777-9X  in this go-round of orders. The BA orders righted the 777X program for an on-course production flow as now Boeing will commit more to the 777X program and more risk can be taken with its NMA announcement coming in 2019. The order basic involves 34 747 retirements by 2022.

British Airways Score Card:

• (-34), 747 retired by 2022.
• 18, A350-1000 booked with delivery beginning in 2019
• 18, 7779x booked with starting delivery in 2020
• 24, 7779X Optioned for after 2022

Net growth of 26 WB frames

The retiring of the 747 fleet nets a fleet increase

Total British Airways value of Boeing's 777X aircraft at list price 18.5 billion including firm and optioned aircraft for 42 units.

BA has already in the fleet or ordered WBs per below chart.

Wikipedia BA Fleet Chart

                                      -1st2B PEc  Ec  Total

Boeing 777-200	3	—	17	48	24	127	216	To be replaced by 777-300ER[138][139]
Boeing 777-200ER	43	—	14	48	40	124	226[140]
			—	48	24	203	275
			—	32	52	252	336[141]
Boeing 777-300ER	12	3[142]	14	56	44	185	299
Boeing 787-8	12	—	—	35	25	154	214
Boeing 787-9	18	—	8	42	39	127	216
Boeing 787-10	—	12[143]	TBA

Just a quick summary of the BA fleet size concening Boeing product. It could replace many of its 777-200ERs with 777X currently from the MOU (24 LOI). Knowing this order will take about 5 years to complete 18 777X's and if the 777X meets and exceeds expectation in service Boeing could expect another 50 of its 777X to be ordered by 2025 for a complete fleet renewal of its total 777 classic version 777's.

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Notes:

May 2016 Viet Jet ordered 100 Max 200's

*February 2019 Viet Jet Ordered 80 737 Max 10s 
                                                20 737 Max 8s
*Bamboo Air                             10 787-9s (10 787 + 25 Max in Talks/Options)
                              Total Today:110 Booked 

Vietnam has firmed 210 (Viet Jet 100 (2016) +100 (2019) Bamboo 10 787-9s) Boeing aircraft with option and intents remaining for a growing industry in the region with Bamboo Airways yet to firm its single-aisle equipment needs.

2/28/2019 who wins the BA order bid 777X or the A350-1000? Only hours away for the answer.

Randy Tinseth On Airshow Approach

Here is a break for Boeing-o-philes. A Randy Tinseth looks at Boeing Thinking.

2018 Dubai Airshow

Farewell A-380 You Are Changing The Market On Departure

When the A-380 is last produced in 2021 it will affect the market significantly by making Twin Engine behemoths, the new aviation rock stars. Enter the 777X and the A-350-1000 for which Airbus contemplates a 777X killer called an A-350-2000. The 2000 lineage from Airbus would indicate plus 400 seats but how will it match what Boeing is trying with its 777Xs?

1. Starting with Boeing's folding wing, Airbus won't match it
2. Enlarging A-350 windows will be done in some other shape
3. Fixing 400 plus seats Airbus will accomplish
4. Flying lighter than the 777X frame is an Airbus accomplishment
5. Having seat/mile costs the lowest is a Boeing win.
6. Boeing has the Engine GE9X, Rolls just dreams about it.
7. Boeing 777X program timing is on the cusp of the A-380 demise
8. Pricing of both the 777X and A-350-2000 is a push
9. The market has room for just one Aircraft maker for the size of the airplane class
10. Boeing owns the pole position in this race and the 777X becomes the industry standard.

The 7478F and A-380 are under the microscope where the 7478F remains to have a freight market sewed up. It will be built for the next 20 years as a stablemate with the 777-8XF or 9XF going forward much like the 767 has done over the last 10 years. The A-380 is basically done by 2021 where Airbus will unleash resources to counter Boeing's effort with new airframe offerings.

Bamboo Bang For Buck Is 787 For Ten

Bamboo just signed for 10 more 787's while President Trump viewed on during his summit visit to the Far East with NK Leaders. The Vietnam based airline already has 20  787 on firm orders and this 10 just signed will increase the Boeing fold to 30 787's.

"The carrier, which is owned by property and leisure company FLC Group and made its first flights in January, placed a provisional order last year for 20 Boeing 787 widebody jets worth $5.6 billion at list prices." is reported.

The word provisional sticks out the most as Bamboo seems it has not firmed the first 20 at this time. However, it firmed 10 with the Trump visit and is new and separate from the 20 it provisioned last year. This indicates Boeing and Bamboo have not yet settled on a price for 20 but Bamboo is still intending on those first 20 it had committed to buy.

In all, Bamboo is looking for the lowest price per plane as it already has higher priced A350's in its fleet. The 787 will cover the same market the A-350 covers. If Bamboo's 20 787 are firmed in 2019 then Bamboo will have added 30 787's to Boeing's bookings.

Pre and Post Lion Air Crash Boeing 737 Max Sales

The months August, September, and October saw Boeing book 132 sales of its Max to Customers. The post-Lion Air crash three months accumulated 266 737 Orders. President Trump will sign for 100 Viet Jets orders this month in a diplomatic gesture to Vietnam. January saw 28 737's signed, including military 737's and unidentified. The year 2019 has been a continuation of Boeing's sales run in the summary. The Lion Air 737 Max crash killing 189 has not dampened Boeing's sales momentum for its 737 Max line of aircraft. ANA is buying 20 Max with the other 100 mentioned it brings the total Max ordered since the October  2018, accident to 386 Max ordered.

The argument continues between Boeing and the accident investigators what the appropriate measure Boeing should take when assisting on fixing how this type of accident may never happen again. To explain what happened at this time is premature until the final accident report is issued. It's clear the accident occurred from a series of misunderstandings from the pilot with his 737 Max in distress. The plane nosed into the ocean, going full throttle killing everyone. It's complicated to cipher what went wrong these many months later. However, procurement for single-aisle Max has not slowed, so the reasoning continues as does the buying. Boeing is fixing its instruction to pilots and making software changes promising the 737 Max was safe to fly in the first place but these adjustments will make it more secure to pilots unfamiliar with the Max after the NG version in service.

Gleaning The 777X To-do Field

Gleaning is a long used biblical word. Taking what's left over after the harvest. The technology harvest installed the 777X first flight airplane. Gleaning takes the time to pick up every loose grain found in the field. That is what happens to the 777X until sometime in March when First Flight rolls out the factory doors. Dozens of people with clipboards and testers in hand are checking every rivet, bolt, or electrical panel. Technicians in other rooms are even plugged into the big jet for running its software in a proforma attitude checking to see if any code does not perform in a situational awareness test of what if's.

Suppose if there is a crosswind of 50,  what flap will do what? Now you get it, its mind boggling how much Boeing has to do before first flying copy rolls out.  This is no 787 rollout on 7-7-07. It's not a plastic hulk for photo ops. This example is meant to fly soon after its rollout. Engines are ready and the tires on this rollout will be airborne soon after the cupcakes are eaten by those in attendance.

Therefore, my impatience is calmed, knowing people are pulling over-time, in order for its first flight is the goal by late next month. Sometime in 2020, Lufthansa will demonstrate to its customer what a deal they made buying the first 777-9 ticket. The oohs and awes will sell more of the same next time launched. The take-off with the GE-9's will warmly hum in the cabin and soon the most disturbing sound is someone snoring. "Wake that passenger, I want to hear the crinkling of my first 777-9 candy wrapper" goes the child in me.

Therefore my inpatients are only mitigated by countless web browsing sessions under the heading of 777X.

Viet Jet 2018 Deal Confuses Trump's visit

Last year at Farnborough there was an MOU deal with Viet Jet for 100 737 Max for 13 billion US. However, some reported Boeing reported this on its unidentified order book. There were 125 Max booked on December 24,2018 as those unidentified isn't a Farnborough date nor 100 units leaving it to booking 125 737 jets on one date late in December of 2018. The question arises who did Boeing book for 125 737 Max on December 24, 2018, as unidentified? Donald Trump is going to Vietnam to talk to Kim Jung Un of North Korea fame and sign a deal for 100 Viet Jets at the same time which doesn't look at all like the mystery of 125 737's on December  24, 2018, found on Boeing's book.

So going forward it seems like Boeing should add 100 Viet Jet's MOU coming from 2018 to Boeing's 2019 book for 20 737-Max 8 and 80 737 Max 10's which doesn't align well with Airbus' vision for progress in the market place. If Boeing already did book those orders in late December 2018, as unidentified, then the MOU from Viet Jet has turned into a firm order just a few months ago. Its something to watch for on Boeing's book after Trump's visit. Boeing could be amassing an early lead over Airbus for orders in 2019. Single-aisle orders do matter as Boeing beat Airbus last year with the single-aisle order class numbers.

An Airbus A321XLR decision Is What Boeing Wants

If Airbus does announce the A321XLR shortly that is exactly what Boeing wanted in it's overarching strategy. An Airbus single-aisle airplane against an NMA dual aisle Boeing. Some say an A321XLR will cause Boeing to lose the gap competition. The jury still is out on that particular notion. Some say Boeing must reduce its 797 build costs which are now holding Boeing back. The sunk cost on such an NMA has already been spent and will not be included with the price of a Boeing NMA.

Boeing is going big or not at all in the current situation. "Big", being something new and something affordable in a new niche. The A321XLR can do this but the Boeing proposal far outclasses the Airbus ideas. The 797 will be dual aisle with big windows for all. It will fly 5,000 miles comfortably at seven seats across. The A321XLR will stretch longer at 6 seats across. The A321XLR may take its energy forward it has gained in the market place during the last ten years, but the 797 will overcome that energy with an all-new offering for the same cost of the A321XLR. Time has come to lay down the cards that are held. However, Airbus will lay down its hand first and that is the game Boeing is playing since it holds a card Airbus doesn't have.

Boeing's False Flag Strategy

Let's face it, Boeing can do what it wants whether it's a "moon shot" capsule and all, or an A-380 type of aircraft, but it would rather have, is its juvenile competitor build a prideful A-380 instead. Even after Boeing understood its own 747 was ready to haul the last remaining DoDo birds found on the planet, Boeing simply wanted the Airbus A350 to come until its own 787 entrenched itself in the market place. Notice Boeing has firmed up over 1,400 orders where the A350 has firmed up over 800 orders. Including the A330 line its only about 1,000 WB's on the books.

Now Boeing is launching the 777X soon and that gamble comes from 777300ER success and more savvy studying of the aviation market. The 777X has patented folding wings and Airbus will definitely go bigger with an A-350-2000 hoping to park it within expanding airports. It almost sounds juvenile again as was experienced with its now dead A-380 market. The 777X is the airplane Airbus can't build, no matter how self-centered it becomes. It's just a Euro thing. Boeing's play is coming from all its data.

You know data is the thing that Boeing amasses along with big aero wings that fold. Boeing can incrementally expand that fold by several meters on each side and still land at every major airport in the world. So Boeing added about 7 meters or 3.5 meters a side or 11 feet of lift per side to make the wing go from 213 feet to 235 feet. Airbus will have to make new airports to make its own rendition compete well with the 777X. Airbus is contemplating a 777X killer with an A-350-2000.

What it won't have are the 777X passenger's body width and that folding wing. It also won't have Boeing's passenger windows. It can make a facsimile aircraft but this would lack the Boeing toner of systems and the GE9x engine. Rolls Royce again could make a bigger engine for an A-350-2000, which is what they are probably working on today in a scale up from its current  787/A380 Trent 900-1000 to a Trent 2000 and so forth. 

Yeah, Airbus can do a knock-off,  but Boeing has already knocked-off Airbus in this game as Airbus plays the juvenile airplane builder. The Boeing false flags (laughing all the way to the bank) have made Airbus blink.

The 777X, Now What, The NMA?

So say, Dennis Muilenburg, CEO Boeing at a recent conference. Once the 777X is launched assuming first delivery because it has already a launch announcement since 2012. Then the "launch" of its  NMA, assuming a launch announcement because it won't say until Dennis Muilenburg says so! Now we know the time schedule for the NMA notice (797) and it points to well... Paris 2019?.

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DJ Aviation Thinks So

Reading tea leaves is a blogger purpose. These scant tea leaves are all about some kind of launch point for some kind of phase during program development. It is left to others to suppose its way from here to there. So I suppose.

The 777X launch 1 is complete. It has booked 300 units for the 777X. Launch 2 is coming in March when the first flying example rolls out Boeing's doors about next mid-month. Launch 3 is when the first delivery is made in 2020 to Lufthansa. I do believe Muellinburg is talking about launch 2 coming next month and not launch 3 with its main launch customer, Lufthansa. 

Paris Airshow falls between launch #2 and launch #3 so the NMA is on the hot seat at this very moment. Boeing has been gathering data, well, forever and that the old excuse has worn thin where people just smile when Boeing rolls out another big shot who harrumphs his way through the words "still studying" the NMA. The current "study" is about engine maker and what seats will be shown on the Paris Airshow big screen. There are several engine makers vying for that honor and Safran, PW, and Rolls have long since made its final engine pitches for 50,000 lbs of thrust because that's what they already do as a business, to begin with.

Engines are further along than a sketch at this point. An NMA engine is already burning on a test block somewhere in the Midwest under the mask of some fuel-efficient  R&D test you don't need to know about! So it's up to the Paris Airshow demonstrating how cup holders can deftly slide in and out of armrests of airline seats on an NMA. That's how far Boeing's study has gone. Three test bed fuel burning engines and cup holders. That must be the study position at this very moment because Boeing has already built a few airplanes and they have that down well. Boeing already knows how many customers will order and in what numbers, because they hired more NMA specific build engineers (1,000+) and "it's is waiting for more data?" Naw, Airbus doesn't believe that because it wouldn't be toying with its A321 into infinity and beyond spending 100's of million on some kinda aviation pooka.

Dennis, you are silly collecting more NMA data because the answer was made to build it when the idea was first slipped out to its stock-holders, years ago. 

Me, "you are looking at building an NMA to fill the proverbial gap mentioned at every press conference!" 

Yes, we are all stupid and Boeing's comments show that. The Hoax That Wasn't", is just a tittle of a Boeing book when numbering the pre-sales made for a flying pooka. Money isn't spent over 10 years studying a decision. That only happens in the encyclopedia business which is no longer in fashion. Going to the dentist is easier with having your wisdom teeth pulled and stitches strung in gums than buying into the idea that further studies are needed before we can announce the NMA. "Can we just all get along", says Rodney King from LA fame. 

The next NMA PR speech I would like to write and here it is in Boeing speak.

"A new study has been "launched". The NMA study is for launch #3 of the 777X, which is included. Boeing has to determine where in the market to make an NMA's first delivery and when it should occur since we have 12 launch customers in-waiting back at the Boeing Castle. It looks like if we make a launch for a 797, it will be a customer based north of the equator. If that decision is to be made it will need another study before deciding how far North of the Equator the launch customer will reside. We, Boeing, can't launch an NMA until after 100 first deliveries are made to 12 customers. It will be important to its business decision whether the NMA can deliver in a timely manner to 12 customers in its first year." (applause from the minion). 

Boeing is also working on a new Yo-Yo as its studies billions of yo-yo's that have been used and it indicates future development for the yo-yo is promising. Boeing is looking at a new string to reel in its massive wheel. Boeing is trying to determine if the wheel really works in everyday life before it announces the results. Boeing also laid-off the "no guts no glory" sign holder from its Everett, Wa street corner near the Puget Sound, as a study is conducted whether or not glory will fit into its market."

After The 777X Flies, The Aviation Pigs Say 797 At Paris

"All that oinking and so many pavilions", screams Paris 2019 airshow. 

The 777X first flight is holding the 797 off the news pages and the internet. Boeing is not dithering the announcement it has already foreshadowed its existence. Dither is an F-bomb without the letter F fronting its spelling. Boeing knows and it won't tell because the game is afoot said, Sherlock.  Paris is the target no doubt when the 797 idea takes first flight at the big pavilion in the sky. It will indeed hold 220-260 passengers and supplant the 737-9 and 737-10. Embraer will build up a 185 seat lineage from its playbook that Boeing bought on an 80% down payment for anything single. That is the rumor. Enjoy!

A Longer Wing Makes The L/D Ratio Better

The Liftndrag blog of Winging It has a new kid on the block and its Boeing's longer 777X wing. It folds, it flies and lifts better than any other WB wing in the world. Boeing did it, not Winging It but the metaphor if the L/D is not lost on Wining It. The folding wing is Winging Its answer to blogging and the 777X is coming next year to Lufthansa Airlines.  It is (Lufthansa) excited and so Winging It is excited and so forth.

The drag is taken out of aviation when reading this blog. Just unfold its pages and you will see the advent of spell-check and Grammarly.   and then you know how the lift overcomes the drag of this Winging It blog. This edition is just an inhale of the metaphor of why its called "Winging It" and looking further you will note its found at liftndrag.blogspot.com. And that link name is no accident at its inception. Boeing's 777X folding wing aircraft is a journey from the beginning when it featured back in December of 2012 the "

The 777X Project Is Going Underground Call It Project X

LiftnDrag awakens with articles like this in the above in link.

Seven Years and the 777X to show for it. Go Boeing you fly your opus.

Where Is Boeing Going?

The quick and dirty of it all. This is without punditry attached!


Going to Embraer 190- ???,  a new 737 based on Ryan Air's 737-200c
Going From:   its 737-7-8,     

Quick and dirty analysis. Boeing bought Embraer for new series line replacing the 737 lower ends of the line and then it has moved towards the upper end of 737 line and with adding new 797 models by 2030.

Fill in your own thoughts with this supposition.

Two Philosophies 747 and A380

Boeings approach to airplane building is centered on the airline the Airbus approach is centered on the passenger.

It is best said the A380 was built for passengers and not accountants and the 747-8i was an accounting adjustment for airlines. Both carried the moniker of a "Heavy". However, this approach carries through to all of the respective Airbus and Boeing product lines. Airbus is built for passenger sensory organs and Boeing is for accountants wanting performance over posterior. Hence the A-380 lost the battle as Boeing continues to build 747-8F freighters for its customers. Some even think if the 747-8F continues long enough in production, allowing an order for the 747-8i to materialize again in the next five years and after the A-380 is long put to rest.

What is the best final approach for the aircraft industry? Performance or Posterior? The answer will come as fuel price increases and routes are congested. The 747 concept has an afterlife but it has to have two engines instead of four. The 777X is probably the best example of performance coming to the forefront and Boeing holds that key.

A quick mention of the A-350-1000 as a long-range high-density people hauler falls short of the 777X. I would be foolish not to mention recent cancellations from Etihad for its 777X of about 20 units, but Etihad canceled 42 a-350's at the same time! A tiny Boeing phyric victory. However, is this an indication of what is to come for the 777X and its customers? The answer is a resounding no! The industry is in shock over the A380 as a symbolic Boeing beater is laid to rest. Companies like Etihad have found tall grass in which to adjust their accounting problems with the A-380 demise. The 777X reduction is more of an indicator of Etihad financial distress and the A380 collapse is good cover for this type of fleet reorganization. Etihad rapidly becomes a 2nd tier airline while Qatar and Emirates become the big 2 (top tier) Middle East Carriers (ME 2 (3)). 

But there is demand out in airline world. Where one airline retreats another picks up the order slack and don't count Etihad out entirely. It has the scent of 777X blood in its nostrils and it should come back and order another 6 777X's in five years with a reasonable Boeing offer as a tailwind. Boeing just has to get this airplane into customers hands before another accounting adjustment is made in the aviation world.

Boeing's accounting approach for new models is baffling Airbus as they try to beat Boeing from a posterior position instead of performance for the accountants. Customers may like the extra five inches in  A-350 over the  787 in cabin size, but Boeing bet passengers would put up with a 17 1/2" seat compared with an 18" wide seat on an A-350, as an example.

The 777X solves the posterior position Airbus has taken. It can go ten abreast at 18" per passenger seat wide. The A350-1000 is stuck with this problem where it can change its configuration without billions backing a change. Boeing has leaped frog Airbus making the A350 an obsolete choice but still an interesting proposition for airlines. The 777X is a fine wine needing some aging before passengers get to taste its finer points. Even though Etihad is broke it will come back and revisit the 777X order book but within its own successful planning of fleet dynamics. It will never compete with Emirates on a one to one basis. The market is getting saturated and Emirates has momentum in fleet planning to stay ahead of its competitors. Performance over posterior wins and Airbus knows it.

What Is Known As The Emirates 40 Is Orphaned

Now it lays at Boeing's feet. Emirates has signed for 40 787-10 in the midst of its reshuffling fortune as it cancels out the A-380 and soothes the Airbus customers by sliding over to the A330 NEO and A350 orders for a total of 70 airplanes, but no word as of yet what it will do with its LOI Boeing 787-10s order for forty. Herein lies the puzzle, and one clue has already been exposed. The clue is in all this bluster of trading A-380's for the 40 A330 NEOs and 30 A350 WBs with no mentioned of canceling the 40 LOI 787-10's.

It means that Emirates is not done yet as it reaffirms six 777X's coming on board. Emirates could close the Boeing case with a large additional order by expanding it to greater than 150 777X units as it already intends on. The forty LOI 787-10 gained by Emirates during 2017 is a card in play for pricing reduction and a build schedule. Boeing will blink and give Emirates a low ball price on 20 787-10's and then sign on for another 777X 20 by signing for 5, 777-8x and 15, 777-9X with special pricing. The delivery duration will be a strung out affair over the next dozen years as the Emirate fleet flexes and grows during its aviation cycles. Boeing will save face and hunker down with its gains during this Emirates fleet reshuffle. 

Emirates needs time and opportunity to adjust its fleet operations with the 70 Airbus WB's and another potential 40 Boeing WB if acted upon. It is important to note Emirates has about 148 older 777's in its fleet today and could easily replace those 777 classics on a one for one basis with its current 777X order book. It was dabbling with the 787-10 but the 40 A330 NEO's and 30 A-350 orders may negate having the 787-10's at all. Drawing a 5,000 mile from Dubai includes all of Africa, Europe and the complete near east. This is billions of potential passengers for Emirates.

Having only 20 787-10 in your fleet underutilizes a business case on one of the world's busiest corners. There is potential room in the Emirates scheme of things to fit in the 787-10 on high-density routes with an unmatched seat mile efficiency not found in the Airbus product. Emirates can go back to both Airbus and Boeing and re-write the order book. Since no cancellation proclamation has been made on Emirates 40 787-10's, it is assumed another shoe will drop explaining the outcome of the LOI. Emirates could just simply drop LOI for 40 at this time but it looks like there is more blood to squeeze out of that turnip in the meantime.

Farewell A-380

And don't let the big, door hit you on the way out. The 747 will have no peer by 2021 but will the 747 still exist by 2021? Some optimists say yes. I say maybe. But all-in-all the 747 remains on the shelf and not below in the garbage bin as the A380 is headed via a Valentine's Day A380 massacre by Airbus announcing its demise.

The long-awaited jumbo airplane stare down has ended and the 747 wins? As it makes presidential airplanes and many freighters. It may stay alive once four engines can operate as efficiently as two big ones or perhaps two big ones will fly a 747 freighter-8F by 2025. It could happen if a market is once again found, but it will take new 747 engine technology to find that market. The 747 does have freight space without engine efficiency but it makes it a substantial freighter even with older engine technology.

Gone is the passenger model but it could reoccur if the price and demands are right. Demand would be overcrowded hubs the A380 could not fit in with, during its 14-year tenure once production for its type ends.

A four hundred seats two engine behemoth could be made under the right circumstances called a 747-9c(c=contentinental). a 5,000 miles people freighter from mega hub to mega-hub. It would be simple for Boeing to make a case than Airbus could, even on a Valentine's Day massacre day.

A 747 twin is a 747 frame with 777 attributes imbued into its being going from New York to Hawaii or to Paris. Boeing wouldn't do it for anything less than 300 frames ordered through its immediate life cycle. 

Or in other words, could it get 300 747-9C's ordered by 2030? If not, forget about it. A 747-9C is a blogger's delight with no reality attached to it. Four engines are so Victorian when you can have a GE 9X hanging on the wings.

It's January Airbus And It Shows

The airplane booking count falls to Boeing during January as Airbus eats a negative 23 cancelations with 8 of them coming from Qantas for 8 A-380's, orders it long held. It sounds like the A380 program has matured right into the Airbus dumpster.

Boeing has nothing to shout about as it did accumulate 43 net orders during the month. There where 18 unidentified 787's ordered with a posting of 25 737 type frames ordered for both military or commercial operations. The summary opinion for the two is it's too early to tell what is happening in the market place. The Airbus rewind will close down its A-380 orders on the book with Emirates and add some A-350 orders and probably damage Boeing's 787-10 40 units documented on its LOI with Emirates.

A good outcome for Boeing would be having Emirates replace its backlogged of near 40 A380's with about 20 A350-1000's and then split the Boeing 787-10 order in half with an additional 777X's at a later date. It would give Emirates time to fit the fleet expansion and renewal in a seamless process when it dumps the A350. There are just so many charter airplane services wanting an A380 around the world and Airbus would really help Emirates out with the A380 disposition, as it would take multiples of A350-1000's during a trade-off. Boeing would do well to assist these players with supporting sentiments as Emirates rewrites its fleet plans with Airbus product in the wings.

The 777X Is Built To Fit

Boeing took a new tack over the A-380. Airbus builds out of pride driven concepts where Boeing is reflecting Stock Holder sentiment through its 777X concept. It will just fit into airports and not make passengers look for cup holders situated a new 777 model. The 777X is coming for passenger sensibility and airport compliance. Don't move that bulldozer just add more boarding seats at the 777X gate.

The A-380 is experiencing an old saying, "pride cometh before the fall". It's big and passenger hip as a turtle neck sweater from the seventies demonstrated. The 777X is the new black dress. The A-380 is so 2007. Right up there with Hemi engines and four-barrel carburetors.  Everyone loves the V-10 Hemi pickup truck from Ram. Go buy one and the price is right.

Back to fitting in and stockholder pleasing gestures from Boeing is the 777X soon to fly near a Puget Sound near you. I guess the 777X won't find its stroke until 2020 when more orders flood in!

Perhaps, Boeing Wants To Close On Some 787 Deals Before Announcing The 797

For a long time, Boeing has stated it does not want to cannibalize the 787 order book before announcing its up and coming 797 announcements.  Perhaps that sentiment is true and its working to protect its 787 order book and delivering more 787 before announcing the 797 programs. Besides waiting for an engine maker decision for the 797 this is a true belief from the ranks of Boeing's board and marketing gurus.

The old relationship terminology would add "it's complicated" to its 797 lexicon.  However, it doesn't stop Winging It from considering the why's and what's going on with Boeing. The main thing is to keep the main thing, the main thing! The 797 is the main thing after-all. I can't determine where the balance of power is on the 797 concepts. I am still working with the Chicken or the egg problem and have determined it's all a scrambled mess.

But the good news is having an opinion where the bad news is your opinion really is a bunch of hooey. Here is my opinion with hooey at no extra charge. The 797 is waiting for its engine before laying an egg. The Chicken lives a long life in spite of fast food drive-throughs. The 797 is coming to a theatre near you by 2020.

A Sea Change Is On The Way And Boeing and Airbus Grapple

The "Sea Change", is the battle between Airbus and Boing with Emirates being the key to this impactful event. Who will win the day? There are before and after scenarios which can be used to out think Emirates position in this matter. 

The gauntlet thrown down by Emirates comes from its mid-market correction. The A380 fails to meets Emirates needs for it to be competitive in the wide-body market. The 500+ passenger per plane carrier costs too much for a reasonable return on profit while maintaining its full capacity in order to be consistently profitable for each A380 loaded with 100% capacity loading. 

The smaller widebody market makes money from each flight even when carrying an 85% load factor, thus lowering its financial risk from profitable routes and uses. A small wide-bodied aircraft can supplement each trip with an added value freight component when the A350 and 787 are keen to add relatable freight to the aircraft.

UAE is taking a course correction and has about three dozen A380 in the Emirates backlog, as it also added about 20 A380 to the book in 2018 Emirates has recognized the market change and nobody wants the responsibility of keeping a new A380 in shipshape operation. It too is labor and parts intense of a risk to make it spread over route comes with a steep price.

An example comes when a per seat formula illustrates how fast an Airline will lose money when it isn't filled or the set price loses an ability to lower its seat price. The math problem begins to evolve in this way. Each seat makes $100 per seat no matter the airplane type. The Airbus has about 550 seats it could fill. The A350 has about 375 seats and 787 could have 330 seats. Now the rough and dirty number will show how difficult the A380 is tough to fill it to its capacity is killing the program and Emiirate is Airbus' best buyer of its most expensive airplane.

When just good enough wasn't a leap far beyond its competitor, Boeing.  Airbus will retire the production schedule of its A380. The remaining outstanding orders it has for the A380 are the usual suspects of airlines that are those dubious customers with an uncertain financial position. Qantas just canceled its last 8 unfilled A-380's orders by a major airline. The A-380 end is on the final approach. A hail mary toss from Emirates is too late. It too is in discussions on how to convert its outstanding A-380 order it made just last year. Airbus would gain some A350 orders at the expense of A-380 orders ditched. Boeing would like to slip in some 777Xs with a 797 caveat. It looks more certain Emirates will go with Airbus' A-350s out of a professional "courtesy" and a low ball price. Boeing is in no position to lowball its 777X or "797" (under a study conditioned unannounced new NMA type) 

A Being "just good enough undercuts" a competitive philosophy in a free market environment. Big corporations need to step up and the 787 was that attempt, hence the A-350 and so forth. The grapple comes from the conflict of just good enough against a quantum leap above the competitor when introducing a new product, therefore expectations are set for something special for the 777X and any other follow-on from Airbus as well. The A321LR has the pole position in the market from its base customers of the A-321. The 797, if announced, is designed for ending the A-321 reign using better is best tactics.

Emirates One Of The World's Largest Airlines

"We" are in negotiation with both Airbus and Boeing for fleet renewal, so says Emirates. However, The A 380 is the odd airplane out of these negotiations. The main airplanes on the docket for discussions are for the Boeing 787-10s and Boeing 777X which has already firmed up launch customer numbers of 35 777-8X and 115 9X for a total of 150 777X. It also left open a tender of 40 787-10's which is not finalized for strategic reasons. The Airbus company would do anything to stop a 787-10 order placement. Emirates is in the market for buying A350-900's and 1000's for a very generous Airbus quote and blocking the 787-10 LOI deal standing by. Can't really tell how Emirates will divide its order pie but one thing is sure, Airbus has flubbed its A380 deal-making for the near term. 

Emirates is the launch customer for the 777X with 150 of its types ordered. It may want another 20 if a great sell-off begins with A-380 disassembling the Emirate A-380 fleet footprint. It will take another 20 777X to fill the passenger gap that Emirates will have created by retiring the A-380 first. But Emirates loves big board gamesmanship and more is in play with the manufacturers and with Emirates than can possibly meet the eye. 

First, there is the leveraging of order price downward when holding one manufacturer against the other.

Secondly is the world prestige over owning the most advanced big airplane. The 777X would be that Airplane while the A-380 slides to a weak second place traveling secondary routes as it slides down in interest in from its early immense start. The 787-10 is so new it could revolutionize an airline quickly.

Thirdly, Emirates wants Boeing back to the negotiation table when Airbus pleads for its A-330-900NEO and A350's. It may already be happening for those forty 787-10 intents. 

Commonly phrased, "if we can agree to new options language, new pricing structure, or even build slots thrown in during a year over year build guarantee, let's go back and do it."  

If Boeing goes back to Emirates to sort out the death of the A-380 and assist on the following Emirates fleet renewal plan, expect to see major gamesmanship following this situation for years to come. It may change how both Boeing and Airbus will take no prisoners over any deal-making.  Boeing has already shown an aggressive sales style for 2018. 

Boeing is only one plane type away from filling its complete dance card with the worldwide airlines. The 797 is more import as a market big hit than just another airplane because it provides type completeness. Boeing wants this so desperately to hit it this out of the park before making a 797 commitment. Boeing is not ready with its Boeing data on the project progression so it seems Boeing is waiting for an engine decision and that will take an additional 12 months.

Ground Hog Day Is About Airports

Having gone to terminal X by underground train at both SeaTac and Denver airports makes me some kind of  Groundhog expert. There are more underground trains gophering a passenger about than those two airports connecting respective terminals. But on Groundhog day it becomes a solution for big aircraft unloading. The national trend suggests trains, planes, and automobiles before the hotel stay.

The groundhog is coming out to predict airports will adjust in 2019 when losing the A380 and gain the 777X in 2020

Airbus Has Flopped In Front Of Emirates

No matter how well intended a corporation makes it case for a customer or how big that customer is for your airline business, it is wise to listen to that same customer and make special considerations for that Customer. Well, Airbus just tunned out Emirates suggestions over the Emirates A-380 Plus suggestion and this is with an overwhelming love for the A380. Emirates is reshuffling its fleet in light of this condition between Airbus and Emirates. The A-350-1000 is still in play for an order as well as the 787-10 and 777X.

However, the collapse of any A-380 deal makes it a more difficult case for the Airbus family of wide-bodied. There is also a caveat lurking around potential deals this big. Boeing seems poised to infiltrate with Emirates and seize the Airplane market with more than a few sweeteners. Boeing will give Emirates essentially what it wants including those big GE9X engines. Emirates is not so anxious to wrap itself with world's largest aircraft symbolism the A380 it gave over the last 15 years. The World's largest twin-engine makes its own statement as airport grew suspicious of crowds disembarking in one massive flow to the luggage station for picking-up luggage at the same airport. Even though the 777X promises a smaller passenger offload by 75 travelers, it can market a better plan for a gaggle of people seeking a sense of direction at the airport hub. 

Telling your biggest A-380 customer "we can't do what you want", suggest Airbus is caught in its own marketing tracks. It is stuck under its own airplane weight and it sinks the program when trying to save all the customers all the time. Airbus has been caught in a leadership vacuum at this time as it shifts corporate heads around. All are afraid of leading the company down a perilous path in their first few months on the job as if leading the light brigade, with a battle cry of "We can't do that", "it isn't our plan to do that!" Boeing takes note and comes back to Emirates with a can-do we'ill build your vision scheme. The 777X explores a plane B approach making more when operating two 777X's than what could ever be done with one A380. World's biggest twin-engine with folding wings is really cool. A double-decker is so yesterday and inefficient. 

Emirates will want another 20 777X and confirmation for 40 787-10's.

Airbus Is Making Boeing Do It, The 797, Boeing wins The Trifecta

Long has Airbus Airbus crept up Boeing's market pinnacle. It has done so so while Boeing took notice. By now, most aviation analyst also has noticed Boeing let go of its 757 program and did not address the A321 success. It just so happens Airbus leads Boeing by those same numbers from A-321 orders that Boeing has fallen behind in the single-aisle market. Airbus has taken about 2200 A-321 orders to date which is what its lead is over Boeing in the single-aisle market. 

However, Boeing's wide-bodied foray into the market has saved the Boeing pride while tarnishing the Airbus machismo. The A380 is dying an untimely death as orders have flooded in for the 787 and the A380 is regarded as a White elephant because the capacity required and markets sought, make for poor risk partners. The 787 does not have to load passengers up to 90% each time it flies like the A-380 to make money for the airline flying it. The 787 can fly at 85% capacity and make money all day long. The A380 saga is more of an indicator measuring Airbus mistakes. However, being late to the Wide-body ball hasn't helped Airbus either. The Airbus A350 family remains behind to pick up the WB meat scraps in the aviation kitchen. I am sure the A-1000 would have been a best seller during the 1990s but the 777X is made for the 21st century and it shows. The A-350-1000 may go the way of the dinosaurs or in this case the A350-1000.

The 777X has already amassed more orders than the A350-1000 at this juncture and if Boeing pulls a trifecta out of its engineering hat then Airbus will slowly slide into obscurity with a strong European contingency backing it up and propping it up for a long time. This brings us back to the Boeing Trifecta the 797, 787, and 777X. Its meant to exhaust Airbus down the backstretch while Boeing prepares for its 2030 single-aisle model which is made for production efficiency as much as .operational efficiency.

Boeing tipped its hand with programs that will quickly build at a lower cost doing, more units while Airbus languishes with its tube and stick models. Boeing hasn't announced the 797 yet until it has something to show customers, which leads me to believe in a production facility near Everett Wa is a 797 mock-up awaiting cameras for what it will look like when it is built for the first time. It will feature all the advances in a model for customers to pour over in that warehouse building. The point of a multi-million mock-up is to generate more sales before the big blow out announcement. Boeing wants more the just four hundred launch orders, it wants the market which Airbus could not enter over the next ten years. It wants a "market nullification" placed on Airbus' head since it succeeded with the A-321 and Boeing had no answer for that model. And it has paid dearly for its own blunder in its prideful single-aisle market place. Boeing's 797 is a course correction. Boeing 787 is an artful tack when the wind shifted and the 777X is the best boat flying over ponds bigger than the backyard of most airlines. The Trifecta is not about three horse races it is about one big change of throw down that knife and pick up the automatic gun before someone shoots.