The A380 Last Days

There are 331 firm orders by 18 customers for the passenger version of the Airbus A380-800, of which 234 have been delivered to 13 of those customers as of December 2018.

The Boeing 777X has a total of 326 orders matching what Airbus did with its market swallowing A380 for 331 orders. Boeing has no new orders for some time and Airbus is struggling to keep its A380 production model from an untimely death.

The Boeing intent is to nullify Airbus at every corner and it appears they have done so with its 777X offerings. This WB corner is awaiting the other shoe to drop from a Boeing announcement for a new medium-bodied (NMB) aircraft already assigned an unofficial family model number with an unofficial 797 designation. Boeing would love Airbus to counter punch before that NMB announcement with its A321 extended model.  Boeing may have its ducks in a row and will announce this summer at Paris for the 797 families of aircraft.

The A350-1000 is supposed to be a 777-300-ER killer but already it has met its match with the Boeing pair of 777-8X and 777-9X. The A350-1000 can carry 365 passengers for 8,400 miles. The 777-8x meets those Airbus metrics or exceeds them when considering the 777-8X while its 777-9X exceeds it by seating 405 passengers and loses some ground when flying for only 7,500 miles. But paired together the 777X model is a better fit for airlines when buying the two model layouts for the 777X. The 777X is just bigger and more efficient than the 777-300-ER, or the A350-1000.

The A380 can't compete and only in seats provided with a standard 500 seats it has to fill each time it takes-off. It's just a matter of time before airlines can dump the A380  and that will directly improve the 777X order book when the A380 reveals it has few takers for used A380 aircraft. The early sales attempts to support the notion of an A380 after-market points directly at Boeing's aspirations and not Airbus family of aircraft. 

The 777X is a long term project where if Airbus would roll out a design today to match it, it would be 10 years in the making for a first delivery A350-1100. It's in the midst of already examining a Boeing argument with a new A-350-1100 look for 400 plus passengers. Airbus is stuck with the Airbus A-350 line-up and it can only lengthen the design or widen it at the expense of going clean sheet to meet the 777X challenge. Airbus can't at this time afford an A-350 clean sheet for 400 passengers without stockholder fallout and a limited market segment and a return on its investment. 

Boeing has jumped Airbus on this thin segment with the 777X program. It would be unwise to clean sheet a New WB to cover its mistake with its own A380 prideful blunderings. The A380 program has died and an A-350-1100  would be an unwise venture unless Airbus can knock one out of the park clear to the moon. It sounds like Boeing's own moonshot is now paying dividends over the Airbus the A-380 blunder.