Friday, March 31, 2017

The 787-10 Took-off And Landed & Other 1st Quarter 787 Musings

The 787 1st Quarter has landed and what a finish as March goes out like a Lion. The 787-10 flew like a Dream in-liner with its stable mates he 787-8 and 787-9. It was blustery and some clouds as the 787-10 ushered March out like a Lion. And.... April showers of adulation will bring May Flowers of more orders. Here is the March 787 program score cards.
787-10 First Flight
Image result for 787-10 first flight
PR News Wire

March went out like a lion

A-whippin' up the water in the bay.
Then April cried and stepped aside, 
And along came pretty little May! 

The bottom of the frame says it all, the 787 has 1,211 of its 787 family booked! It also has delivered 532 frames by 1st Qtr 2017. It has become an aviation Juggernaut. The Boeing program has already crept closer to the mid-point of delivery equaling unfilled orders so Boeing still has its work cut out for its sales office. Out of 1211 orders booked Boeing has delivered about 44% of that number were the unfilled tally represents 56 percent. Using the 1,211 787 order number Boeing needs to deliver another 74 of its 787 for marking the halfway point in its 787 backlog to deliver ratio. This of course assumes no other orders will be booked during the next six months. The 12 Dreamliner a month production number will deliver 72 frames up through the first week of October and meet a 50/50 split for 787 Dreamliners delivered with Dreamliners unfilled. Only if Boeing does not book another 787 order during this time period.

Fig. 1

Fig.2 below marks the year 2017 quarter by quarter of accumulated 787 deliveries and orders.

Fig. 2

Fig. 3 Below is a snapshot of productivity when comparing the Boeing guidance of 12 frames a month delivered. The first Quarter 2017 has fallen off the 12 a month pace by about 1.33 frames over 90 days. The 10.67 average number within this time frame recognizes the usual slow first of year start and the 787-10 in process interruption in Charleston. When Charleston completes its third 787-10 test frame it may resume its normal 787-8 and 787-9 production rate. After June 1, 2017 look to see Charleston production to resume its establish pace from the last two years. Everett, WA will have no production interruptions even as 787-10 testing moves to Everett, WA. With all 787-10 test frames.

Fig.  4: Below is the program's long term strength. The order column paints a picture of order ebb and flows. 2017 is projected as a slower order year than other years. A Winging It estimation is for 150 wide bodies ordered during 2017 of which the 787 could be pressed to reach 50 of those numbers. However, there are a few large orders pending which could fall to Boeing's chief competitor Airbus. There is also the change the aviation market from WB production's saturation and those pending large orders may hold off until market conditions optimize itself for completing those large orders. Finally, Boeing has positioned itself well to weather an order drought during 2017 and Airbus is operating on thinner margins from a production point of view and its over-all WB backlog. A solid order year for Boeing could doom its competitor as a second tier supplier of wide bodied aircraft. All-in-all, we'll see how 2017 plays out.

In Figure five, the chart demonstrates the 787-9 progress and is rapidly closing the 787-8 to 787-9 balance as the 787-9 is only about 132 behind at this time, and it should take only 18 more months catching the 787-8 in flying numbers. During that 18 month period the 787-10 make its debut with its customers as a flying example. The 787-8 has run out its strong initial order string having only 86 customer orders in backlog which may also be subject to change when customers weigh towards more 787-9 orders by converting its long held 787-8 orders. It also remains to be seen if Boeing will come out with a 797 that would complement both its single aisle aircraft and its wide bodied aircraft as a market gap filler. The announcement of such an offering may increase interest in the 787-8 customers as they would have a tandem pair covering the middle of the market with both a high density and mid density offering.  

Fig. 5 Below