Thursday, March 2, 2017

787-8 Is Winding Down To Better Things

Exactly how much of this market remains? The 787-8 does not receive new orders like a drunken salesman in the bar ordering drinks for everyone. It will barely produce:

·       By David Wren   Quotation below

And Uresh Sheth numbers: ALL Things 787 projections of production and delivery statistics.

Looking into the future, Boeing has just 26 787-8s on its production schedule through 2018 compared with plans to build 210 787-9 models, according to Uresh Sheth, ALLTHINGS787. The newest and largest Dreamliner, the 787-10 built exclusively in North Charleston, has 15 slots on the production chart through the end of next year.

The quotation and information provided above will also show,  that only 90 of the 787-8 remain to be delivered and a further 23 787-8 will be delivered during this year out of a possible 145 787’s for all types scheduled for 2017. With that realization, an examination of the remaining undelivered 787-8 order book has many inferences.

All THINGS 787 Derived Charts below:


Fig-1 Above demonstrates the raw order book yet to be delivered with those already delivered and finally those in the remaining backlog. It stands @90 to go with few orders on the horizon for its type. Boeing needs to revisit the first born of the family and give it a make-over in a new market segment. Winging IT has already written enough about MOM aircraft suggesting a move in this direction for the 787-300 rebirth. (The 787-300 Redux). “Ahora Nunca!” The slogan for addressing the ninety 787-800 backlog. Announcing a new version isn't over-stepping vast production challenges for the 777-9X, 737-Max or the 787-10 makings in the near term. It will take more than three years ramping-up the 787-8 renewal member having a revised body type completing the line of aircraft and thus bridging its single aisle line-up in the market place.

Fig.2 All Things 787 reference

Above in figure 2, demonstrates the possible deliveries for those customers who have yet to receive its first 787-8. This number is over half of the remaining 787-8's in the backlog. Looking at each customer on this list the risk exist few will be delivered and the remaining few will be further out on the delivery schedule. It has become a 787-9 and 787-10 show going forward as the 787-8 slumps into its repose.

Fig. 3 All Things 787 reference

Figure 3, above shows the whole dichotomy of the 787 family of aircraft yet to deliver and a corresponding percentage of backlog remaining. It is clear to see the way forward for Boeing is the Middle Of the Market using the 787 concept and not the Max concept while only 90 787-8's remain to be built. Boeing has three years to fold in a spin-off long after the 787-10 and 777-9X flies and is delivered. The 737 Max will have long flown the coup in this three years future period of where Boeing is going.

The case comes from the numbers above, assuming Boeing's propensity to expand its market and it will no longer watch Airbus steals the market away as did the A-321 NEO Boeing debacle.