Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Boeing Filling The Gap by The Numbers

It’s by the percentages when viewing a gap offering. The center point in the gap is about 220 seats. The object is filling a hole from single aisle to duo aisle. The step increase is in the relevant range of 20% seat change depending on range requirements. Boeing is going for about 220 seats on its 797 proposal.

Reading the chart can become mind boggling, but if following color queues and seat count relationships one can establish a firm picture of the "Gap" emerging where the 797 will fill-in and strike against the A-321 at the same time. The 787-8 has engineered 242 seats and the 737 Max -8 only has 162 in its standard configuration. A span of 80 seats jumping from the 737 Max 8 and the 787-8 exists and the midpoint between the two is 202 seats. It is not coincidence that 202 seats mirrors the 200 seat 737 Max-200 Ryan Air has ordered. It straddles center between the 162 seat 737 Max 8 and the 787-8's 242 base seating configuration.

The chart is a basic explanation of relational sizing in Boeing's family of aircraft and where the 797 should fit in the scheme of things. All comparisons are based against the 787-8 seat count of 242 as shown in figure 1.

·      787-8 242 seats and a 0% relationship with itself
·      787-9 is a 290 seat configuration 20% larger seat capacity than the 787-8
·      787-10 is a 330 seat configuration 36% larger than the 787-8 and 14% more than the 787-9

Fig. 1

That completes the 787-8 Green matrix without considering the 797-Gap or the 737 Max 8 positioning. Going down the left column and tracing across are results of capacity increases by percentage from model to model starting with the 787-8 column and moving right. The gap again is somewhat centered between the 787-8 and the 737 Max 8. The closer to +- zero percentage the closer to the 787-8 in seat capacity.

Considering the 797 row it appears the seating capacity of 220 seats is 9% less than the 242 seat 787-8 capacity, 24% less of its capacity of the 787-9, and 33% less than the 787-10 seat capacity. 

The 737 Max 8 is the primary seller of the single aisle frames in this decade and is used as a base line in this case for single aisle comparisons with Boeing dual aisle mid wide body types. The 787-8 is the nearest dual aisle aircraft capacity above the Max family core. The gap dynamic between single aisle and duo aisle is filled-in with a 797, assuming its the fill between dual aisle 787-8 and the 737 Max 8.

The far right two columns is a comparison with each of the 787 family of aircraft comparing the concept 797, and the single aisle 737 Max 8. As an observation, the 737 Max 8's seating capacity is less than all duo aisle aircraft and moving increments  of about 10% seating change from model to 787 model. The 797 is also shown as a negative percentage while tracking in increments of about 10% with each of the 787's listed, however. 

Additionally, the 737 Max starts at 33% less seats than the 787-8 and then moves against succeeding 787 models at about a 10% incremental change with each 787 model change. What this shows is the 797 proposal is positioned well in the center as it is starts about 10% less than the 787-8 seats and moves about 10% capacity change per model. When factoring seat options a customer may order the 797 will center itself between the 737 Max and 787-8.

Range will always change as payload weight changes by number of seats availble on a particular aircraft. It may be a good assumption the 797 would fly either from 4,000 to 5,000 miles depending on the load factor of seated customers.