Friday, May 27, 2016

Since December 2011 The 737 Order Book Grows

Starting with SWA anchor order in December 2011 for 150 Max and ending with an order chart through April 2016. A summary view not including one hundred Vietjet 737's or eight Norwegian 737's, shows a robust Boeing order book for its single aisle first four months during this year. In fact, 2016 may surpass Airbus single aisle order count for the year. Knowing that Airbus prefers sandbagging order announcements for airshows, a steady pace has been established by Boeing for its single aisle offerings. The Neo-Max gap continues to shrink. The game change could occur, once the first Max delivers while falling into customer hands when comparing the Airbus A320 offering having a rough first delivery.

Single aisle by the numbers:

  • Max Ordered since          2011-December: 3,090
  • NG Ordered since            2011-December: 1,356
  • Military Ordered since      2011-December:      79
  • Other 737 Ordered since  2011-December:        8

                                                  Total      4,532

Starting with January 2012, the time represents just over four years and 4 months or about 52 a month backlog build for the 737 family of aircraft. Dividing 4,532 by 52 months a straight line order rate can be established of 87 units ordered a month worldwide since the first Max order.

An Airbus snap shop since January 2016 shows a single aisle order pacing for only fourteen A320 NEO's. This falls well below Boeing's 2016 order pacing for the first four months as it totals 35 single aisle booked per month. Adding Boeing's May order count of 108 737 (to date) would increase its order pace up to 50 from 35 single aisle per month during 2016. 

Having a pace of 87 orders a month on average since 2012, the current 2016 total for Boeing of 249 is well below the last four years pace where the total units ordered should be about 348 units booked, if it were maintaining its four year pace.

Even though this is an off order year for both giants I would expect Boeing to outpace the single aisle production with its orders through December 2016.