Friday, August 29, 2014

No Time Like The Present, The Delveries Are In The Bank

Once again my anxiousness presumes the United 787-9 is delivered in August. With this "guessed delivery" at the months end, how will it will play out? The moving average fashion is out pacing production goals of a set 10, where Boeing is delivering  plus numbers greater than the 10 production goal by 2.33. I will recheck my own mental calculation, when a calculator is found under the paper work. Don't expect Boeing to relax the pace as they have 6 in production testing and 15 more in preflight preparation and several more 787-9's cooling its collective heals in Change Incorporation Rework or storage. Storage status for the 787-9 is an "airplane side-bar" for the dash nine as its customer, Air New Zealand, has a stated goals for delivery for each of its dash-niners. 

Customer pacing is affecting when delivery is made until the end of the year for those types. Boeing has backloged its work flow substantially to meet its year end goals. They should reach 120 787's delivered when considering its WIP line-up of available aircraft entering completion during the next 100 days. The over-all customer count of delivered 787 stands at 183 units.  In order for Boeing to achieve its goal of 120 delivered for 2014, it must produce or deliver 50 more units by the end of the year. In doing so, Boeing will have 233 787's in service. They can achieve that if they maintain the Moving Average numbers it just has established, when considering the current 12.33 rate during the next four months.

Boeing has a lot of stored capacity (WIP) within the assembly lines at both Everett and Charleston which will be relesed by years end during December  deliveries. 

Goal +/-                          06/2014    07/2014          Projecting      August (actual)  Delta 
Month Deliveries               15                8              10            14                      +6
3 M-M-avg                         8.33           11.33         10            12.33                +1
Production Goal                 10               10.            10            10                        0
Delivery Trend (+/- )       -1.67            +1.33                   -. 0          +2.33 /Target     >                
                                       *PM-Start      **M.A.P.                                   PM-End
*Progression Months
**Moving Average Progression