Friday, August 29, 2014

Buying The Right Hammer For The Job

It sometimes comes to the forefront, a thought of why airlines just don't buy the biggest baddest airplane on every purchase, like the A380. Airbus may wonder that too as they would like selling A380's into infinity. The 747 family lost its top perch of being the biggest and baddest airplane giving over to the A-380. They long have since winced at any A380 sales announcement. In fact all orders for Airbus should be an A-380 in the corporate ego set. However, the A380 is a sledge hammer of the skies, while airlines are building a business model. The 737 family of aircraft are 12 ounce finish hammers with a special head that will tap in finish nails. The 16 oz hammer is a typical framing hammer for dimensional lumber (767). The 24 oz hammer is for macho carpenters that drive 16 pn nails in one swat (777/787).

Builders of airlines don't need a 3lbs or greater mallet or sledge hammer, driving in finish nails or framing nails. Boeing has given airline a tool box of aircraft types that will drive home the point at every airport. Airbus invested billions on the A380, and then the A350 (two types) in an effort of mitigating Boeing's structured approach from the 737 up through the 777X's revolutionary aircraft. Even though Airbus started first with its NEO proposition and then onto the A330 NEO (Farnborough 2014), as a 787 beater, it only will be done over the next three years.

It is not enough time for rolling over Airbus' technology at the level of the 787 example. The A330 NEO is a fleet replacement model for invested A330 operators, as it does not break new ground, since its a metal aircraft stuffed with new systems and new wings. The 777X is going to be far advanced of the A330 NEO and as that NEO will still lag the 787 in over-all performance and upgrades. The A330 NEO is a new class of aircraft called A Fleet Position Holder (FPH). A FPH back-fills voids from aging A330 classics, gaining orders from Airbus Loyal customers. It also fills a role for emerging airlines who do not have the capital ready for obtaining the 787 and it is more expeditious opting to lease this Airbus "787 knock off". Emerging airlines may not have any "FPH" slots for long thin routes, but can acquire this hub to hub types within the Airbus philosophy, by purchasing the A330 NEO. Its all about hub to hub with Airbus snorting about, at the Boeing model of flying anywhere direct and land at any Airport compliant to all what Boeing has to offer with its 787. The 787 has become the common denominator for Boeing. All Future Boeing aircraft owe its roots to the
787 technology and flight deck. Including its new air fuel tanker for the US Air Force.
However there is the commercial fact, all airports desire the synergy of being a super hub. It would bring in people, grow industry and provide a huge tax base, giving power to the local government. Then a fool thing like reality interrupts. Our local government is on an Island in the Caribbean (St Martin)and can't land the A380 unless it builds runways in the Carribean sea, Airports bought all the available land for our mini hubs, and extending runways and terminals is not an option. Most of the airports face these problems except for the desert kingdoms. Coincidentally, they order a preponderance of the A380, and while not be buying many of the A330 NEOs, if at all. The main Airbus seller is the A350-900. The A350-1000 are loyal customers ordering because that is what they run with everyday, Airbus. The danger there, lies in-the-fact of: limited flexibly once an airline passes beyond the A320 NEO, when ordering twin aisle aircraft.

Boeing had many meetings long ago on how to capture the market with what they had. Boeing stopped, dropped, and rolled into an over-arching plan to beat every Airbus aircraft taking into account its own customers, and no matter how Airbus challenges. In the mean time, Airbus blinked big. They went all in on the A380's, and then went to the knee Jerk design center, and pushed out three  two one A350-900. The family of aircraft became dysfunctional, lacking a true challenge to both the 787 and 777X families. The 787 market targets its true capacity for a carefully researched market. It referred to its 787 for the long thin line. Then appropriately demonstrated in Japan its regional handiness. The 777X is a demonstration on how easily Boeing can master the A350-1000 cause. The rush to the Airbus judgement of "a great family" is fiction. It is patchwork planning in the wake of Boeing accomplishment. Plugging and playing with airplane inserts is not a good plan.

In Boeing's case, an observer can easily see that it has fixed its business model from top to bottom. Airbus doesn't have a true top to bottom flow as it has canceled the A340 and A350-800. It has an oversized A380 and a stand alone A350-900 and a family of single aisle aircraft. Boeing has covered the market with aircraft capable of any commercial program over 120 seats up to 480 seats. Airbus has failed in its effort when shadow boxing with Boeing. Corporate loss off vision is a critical killer for success. Airbus' dysfunctional vision is slowly eroding its own market. Below are Airbus talking points going the way of the dinosaur.

Dysfunctional Airbus Family:

  • Cancelation of A350-800 (someone recommended this as a Boeing competitor, never-mind)
  • Slow Sales of A350-1000 (777X game over)
  • Poly-Unsaturated A380 Airport Fat
  • Mid Range Metal A330 NEO (Its a Cheaper FPH) (Same person from above bullet recommended this over the A350-800, lease baby lease)
Faux News from Bullet Points added:

Sarcasm Font Below:

December 31, 2014 Airbus Leadership Team from Fance, Germany, and Great Britain, have solved the family crises by announcing the A360 BXXWBNEO.  AKA (Big extended extra wide body new engine option). 118 launch MOU's were signed from three unannouced customers from leasing companies. Will be announced at Paris and will be added in the order books for 2014 and later in 2015 at the Paris Air Show. These also go with the 127 A330 NEO's annonced at Farnsbourough.