Friday, August 1, 2014

Its The Three Month Moving Average Day For July

Boeing has achieved another Eight 787's, during a month period, averaging at least 10 customer deliveries or above that number for the 787 for the last three months. Two 787 are in waiting for its customers to pick-up. It isn't foreseen that the delivery pace will slump off. Boeing should delivery about 12 units in the month of August including 3 787-9's. The numbers below indicate an average of eleven 787 delivered each month during the last three months. The production goal is an assumed constant of 10 a month as announced from Boeing earlier this year. When Boeing changes that paradigm, then the production goal will change to the announced number. Since April dropped off the moving average chart and July was added to the average calculation, the change has been a plus 3.0 to the moving average from a month to month comparison. The over-all month deliveries for July has dropped by -6, on the month-to-month raw delivery comparisons. Production goals remain constant as announced by Boeing.

The Prior two month results remain as part of the three month moving average calculations.

Goal +/-                          05/2014    06/2014          Projecting      July (actual)  Delta 
Month Deliveries               10               15              10              9                     -6
3 M-M-avg                         7.33            8.33            10.           11.33              +3
Production Goal               10               10.                10            10                    0
Delivery Trend (+/- )       -2.67            -1.67                   -. 0            +1.33 /Target     >                
                                       *PM-Start      **M.A.P.                                   PM-End
*Progression Months
**Moving Average Progression

Updates include the emergence of delivered 787-9 to ANZ and ANA. August will see several more 787-9's and the usual onslaught of 787-8's from its production testing slots. Boeing has multiples of 787 slots in production testing, with pre-flight preparation of up to 20 aircraft in the process. Currently it stands at 16 in the preflight testing and preparation. Where the production floor moves, about 10-12 aircraft through a combined  Charleston and Everett doors in the continuous stream. Aircraft delivered below the 10 a month mark are the affects by customers preferences for its delivery, as found during this month where 2 remained ready for delivery but undelivered. The production preparation for flight testing releases an immense number from the flight line, for the actual flight tests before delivery.

The readiness or preparation for delivery is a methodical preparation, testing all assembled parts and systems. This is usually done from the position of the flight line or the EMC buildings. Seats and interiors maybe installed at the EMC when the Flight line is full or a closed environment is preferred when upgrading any aircraft moved from experimental flight testing. I noticed three 787-9's went from Boeing's type flight testing program straight to the EMC, in preparation for customer delivery. A conversion project was needed to remove all test equipment and install commercial equipment, including passenger and crew interiors. In the future, those 787-9 should go straight from production assembly directly to the flight line where it will finish off its completeness. The initial or original testing 787-9's have gone back from the flight line over into the EMC, as a step transition plan for former tests 787-9's unitl production dash nines start flooding the flight line directly from the great assembly halls.

The month of August may show a typical ten a month production schedule for the next six months, depending on the order book balance at years end. After the first of the year, or in 2015, a preponderance of 787-9 may be seen coming out the production assembly doors addressing its order book abundance of backlogged 787-9's, where the 787-8 continually drops its backlog significantly in number, and from its prior three years run of production. The 787-8 number is below the 787-9 back log account . Maybe the split between the 787-8 vs the 787-9 will be a 50-50 split delivered to customers, as production amps up after solving the newer 787-9 production protocols in Charleston. This balance would occur in late 2015 as the 787 begins its first production journey. If Boeing increases to 12 units a month, it can keep both its 787-8 and 787-9 customers happy.

As exampled by ANA, the Boeing's launch customer. They have received 28 787-8's and one 787-9. I would expect ANA would begin to receive 787-9's on a regular basis as it had once received the 787-8 during the last three years. They have only a handful of 787-8's remaining to be delivered. Additionally there are several 787-9 customers who ordered only the 787-9 and not the 787 -8. They will be emphasized by Boeing production line per customer preference and slot availability as found with ANZ order. United is also a point customer for the 787-9 and will recieve early attention for its type. Scoot is on deck for its first 787-9. Many other airlines are scheduled in for 2015 deliveries with the 787-9 types.

New, on the 787-10 front, Charleston: Its not that big of a gamble when making the 787-10 exclusively at the Charleston facility. Logistics play a critical role in that decision in spite of the Union chagrin. Parts made in Charleston are flown on the Dreamlifter to Everett, WA. The 787-10 central barrel won't fit on the Dreamlifter as is, because of its length. The Dream Lifter is booked out with the 787-8 and 787-9 project. The bigger barrel for the 787-10 is manufactured in Charleston. Even though Everett has less factory problems than Charleston, it is not a problem to send 400 or more engineers and craftsmen to Charleston for a year or two, for the purpose of  ramping up and training the Charleston project people during 2015, and not affect 787-8 and 787-9 standards on Everett's production floor. The risk becomes very low with this type of logistic based decision. Boeing is now seeking a path on minimized risk instead of making moonshots with outlandish production decisions.