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Thursday, February 14, 2019

What Is Known As The Emirates 40 Is Orphaned

Now it lays at Boeing's feet. Emirates has signed for 40 787-10 in the midst of its reshuffling fortune as it cancels out the A-380 and soothes the Airbus customers by sliding over to the A330 NEO and A350 orders for a total of 70 airplanes, but no word as of yet what it will do with its LOI Boeing 787-10s order for forty. Herein lies the puzzle, and one clue has already been exposed. The clue is in all this bluster of trading A-380's for the 40 A330 NEOs and 30 A350 WBs with no mentioned of canceling the 40 LOI 787-10's.

It means that Emirates is not done yet as it reaffirms six 777X's coming on board. Emirates could close the Boeing case with a large additional order by expanding it to greater than 150 777X units as it already intends on. The forty LOI 787-10 gained by Emirates during 2017 is a card in play for pricing reduction and a build schedule. Boeing will blink and give Emirates a low ball price on 20 787-10's and then sign on for another 777X 20 by signing for 5, 777-8x and 15, 777-9X with special pricing. The delivery duration will be a strung out affair over the next dozen years as the Emirate fleet flexes and grows during its aviation cycles. Boeing will save face and hunker down with its gains during this Emirates fleet reshuffle. 

Emirates needs time and opportunity to adjust its fleet operations with the 70 Airbus WB's and another potential 40 Boeing WB if acted upon. It is important to note Emirates has about 148 older 777's in its fleet today and could easily replace those 777 classics on a one for one basis with its current 777X order book. It was dabbling with the 787-10 but the 40 A330 NEO's and 30 A-350 orders may negate having the 787-10's at all. Drawing a 5,000 mile from Dubai includes all of Africa, Europe and the complete near east. This is billions of potential passengers for Emirates.

Having only 20 787-10 in your fleet underutilizes a business case on one of the world's busiest corners. There is potential room in the Emirates scheme of things to fit in the 787-10 on high-density routes with an unmatched seat mile efficiency not found in the Airbus product. Emirates can go back to both Airbus and Boeing and re-write the order book. Since no cancellation proclamation has been made on Emirates 40 787-10's, it is assumed another shoe will drop explaining the outcome of the LOI. Emirates could just simply drop LOI for 40 at this time but it looks like there is more blood to squeeze out of that turnip in the meantime.

Farewell A-380

And don't let the big, door hit you on the way out. The 747 will have no peer by 2021 but will the 747 still exist by 2021? Some optimists say yes. I say maybe. But all-in-all the 747 remains on the shelf and not below in the garbage bin as the A380 is headed via a Valentine's Day A380 massacre by Airbus announcing its demise.

The long-awaited jumbo airplane stare down has ended and the 747 wins? As it makes presidential airplanes and many freighters. It may stay alive once four engines can operate as efficiently as two big ones or perhaps two big ones will fly a 747 freighter-8F by 2025. It could happen if a market is once again found, but it will take new 747 engine technology to find that market. The 747 does have freight space without engine efficiency but it makes it a substantial freighter even with older engine technology.

Gone is the passenger model but it could reoccur if the price and demands are right. Demand would be overcrowded hubs the A380 could not fit in with, during its 14-year tenure once production for its type ends.

A four hundred seats two engine behemoth could be made under the right circumstances called a 747-9c(c=contentinental). a 5,000 miles people freighter from mega hub to mega-hub. It would be simple for Boeing to make a case than Airbus could, even on a Valentine's Day massacre day.

A 747 twin is a 747 frame with 777 attributes imbued into its being going from New York to Hawaii or to Paris. Boeing wouldn't do it for anything less than 300 frames ordered through its immediate life cycle. 

Or in other words, could it get 300 747-9C's ordered by 2030? If not, forget about it. A 747-9C is a blogger's delight with no reality attached to it. Four engines are so Victorian when you can have a GE 9X hanging on the wings.

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

It's January Airbus And It Shows

The airplane booking count falls to Boeing during January as Airbus eats a negative 23 cancelations with 8 of them coming from Qantas for 8 A-380's, orders it long held. It sounds like the A380 program has matured right into the Airbus dumpster.

Boeing has nothing to shout about as it did accumulate 43 net orders during the month. There where 18 unidentified 787's ordered with a posting of 25 737 type frames ordered for both military or commercial operations. The summary opinion for the two is it's too early to tell what is happening in the market place. The Airbus rewind will close down its A-380 orders on the book with Emirates and add some A-350 orders and probably damage Boeing's 787-10 40 units documented on its LOI with Emirates.

A good outcome for Boeing would be having Emirates replace its backlogged of near 40 A380's with about 20 A350-1000's and then split the Boeing 787-10 order in half with an additional 777X's at a later date. It would give Emirates time to fit the fleet expansion and renewal in a seamless process when it dumps the A350. There are just so many charter airplane services wanting an A380 around the world and Airbus would really help Emirates out with the A380 disposition, as it would take multiples of A350-1000's during a trade-off. Boeing would do well to assist these players with supporting sentiments as Emirates rewrites its fleet plans with Airbus product in the wings.

Monday, February 11, 2019

The 777X Is Built To Fit

Boeing took a new tack over the A-380. Airbus builds out of pride driven concepts where Boeing is reflecting Stock Holder sentiment through its 777X concept. It will just fit into airports and not make passengers look for cup holders situated a new 777 model. The 777X is coming for passenger sensibility and airport compliance. Don't move that bulldozer just add more boarding seats at the 777X gate.

The A-380 is experiencing an old saying, "pride cometh before the fall". It's big and passenger hip as a turtle neck sweater from the seventies demonstrated. The 777X is the new black dress. The A-380 is so 2007. Right up there with Hemi engines and four-barrel carburetors.  Everyone loves the V-10 Hemi pickup truck from Ram. Go buy one and the price is right.

Back to fitting in and stockholder pleasing gestures from Boeing is the 777X soon to fly near a Puget Sound near you. I guess the 777X won't find its stroke until 2020 when more orders flood in!

Saturday, February 9, 2019

Perhaps, Boeing Wants To Close On Some 787 Deals Before Announcing The 797

For a long time, Boeing has stated it does not want to cannibalize the 787 order book before announcing its up and coming 797 announcements.  Perhaps that sentiment is true and its working to protect its 787 order book and delivering more 787 before announcing the 797 programs. Besides waiting for an engine maker decision for the 797 this is a true belief from the ranks of Boeing's board and marketing gurus.

The old relationship terminology would add "it's complicated" to its 797 lexicon.  However, it doesn't stop Winging It from considering the why's and what's going on with Boeing. The main thing is to keep the main thing, the main thing! The 797 is the main thing after-all. I can't determine where the balance of power is on the 797 concepts. I am still working with the Chicken or the egg problem and have determined it's all a scrambled mess.

But the good news is having an opinion where the bad news is your opinion really is a bunch of hooey. Here is my opinion with hooey at no extra charge. The 797 is waiting for its engine before laying an egg. The Chicken lives a long life in spite of fast food drive-throughs. The 797 is coming to a theatre near you by 2020.

Friday, February 8, 2019

A Sea Change Is On The Way And Boeing and Airbus Grapple

The "Sea Change", is the battle between Airbus and Boing with Emirates being the key to this impactful event. Who will win the day? There are before and after scenarios which can be used to out think Emirates position in this matter. 

The gauntlet thrown down by Emirates comes from its mid-market correction. The A380 fails to meets Emirates needs for it to be competitive in the wide-body market. The 500+ passenger per plane carrier costs too much for a reasonable return on profit while maintaining its full capacity in order to be consistently profitable for each A380 loaded with 100% capacity loading. 

The smaller widebody market makes money from each flight even when carrying an 85% load factor, thus lowering its financial risk from profitable routes and uses. A small wide-bodied aircraft can supplement each trip with an added value freight component when the A350 and 787 are keen to add relatable freight to the aircraft.

UAE is taking a course correction and has about three dozen A380 in the Emirates backlog, as it also added about 20 A380 to the book in 2018 Emirates has recognized the market change and nobody wants the responsibility of keeping a new A380 in shipshape operation. It too is labor and parts intense of a risk to make it spread over route comes with a steep price.

An example comes when a per seat formula illustrates how fast an Airline will lose money when it isn't filled or the set price loses an ability to lower its seat price. The math problem begins to evolve in this way. Each seat makes $100 per seat no matter the airplane type. The Airbus has about 550 seats it could fill. The A350 has about 375 seats and 787 could have 330 seats. Now the rough and dirty number will show how difficult the A380 is tough to fill it to its capacity is killing the program and Emiirate is Airbus' best buyer of its most expensive airplane.

When just good enough wasn't a leap far beyond its competitor, Boeing.  Airbus will retire the production schedule of its A380. The remaining outstanding orders it has for the A380 are the usual suspects of airlines that are those dubious customers with an uncertain financial position. Qantas just canceled its last 8 unfilled A-380's orders by a major airline. The A-380 end is on the final approach. A hail mary toss from Emirates is too late. It too is in discussions on how to convert its outstanding A-380 order it made just last year. Airbus would gain some A350 orders at the expense of A-380 orders ditched. Boeing would like to slip in some 777Xs with a 797 caveat. It looks more certain Emirates will go with Airbus' A-350s out of a professional "courtesy" and a low ball price. Boeing is in no position to lowball its 777X or "797" (under a study conditioned unannounced new NMA type) 

A Being "just good enough undercuts" a competitive philosophy in a free market environment. Big corporations need to step up and the 787 was that attempt, hence the A-350 and so forth. The grapple comes from the conflict of just good enough against a quantum leap above the competitor when introducing a new product, therefore expectations are set for something special for the 777X and any other follow-on from Airbus as well. The A321LR has the pole position in the market from its base customers of the A-321. The 797, if announced, is designed for ending the A-321 reign using better is best tactics.

Sunday, February 3, 2019

Emirates One Of The World's Largest Airlines

"We" are in negotiation with both Airbus and Boeing for fleet renewal, so says Emirates. However, The A 380 is the odd airplane out of these negotiations. The main airplanes on the docket for discussions are for the Boeing 787-10s and Boeing 777X which has already firmed up launch customer numbers of 35 777-8X and 115 9X for a total of 150 777X. It also left open a tender of 40 787-10's which is not finalized for strategic reasons. The Airbus company would do anything to stop a 787-10 order placement. Emirates is in the market for buying A350-900's and 1000's for a very generous Airbus quote and blocking the 787-10 LOI deal standing by. Can't really tell how Emirates will divide its order pie but one thing is sure, Airbus has flubbed its A380 deal-making for the near term. 

Emirates is the launch customer for the 777X with 150 of its types ordered. It may want another 20 if a great sell-off begins with A-380 disassembling the Emirate A-380 fleet footprint. It will take another 20 777X to fill the passenger gap that Emirates will have created by retiring the A-380 first. But Emirates loves big board gamesmanship and more is in play with the manufacturers and with Emirates than can possibly meet the eye. 

First, there is the leveraging of order price downward when holding one manufacturer against the other.

Secondly is the world prestige over owning the most advanced big airplane. The 777X would be that Airplane while the A-380 slides to a weak second place traveling secondary routes as it slides down in interest in from its early immense start. The 787-10 is so new it could revolutionize an airline quickly.

Thirdly, Emirates wants Boeing back to the negotiation table when Airbus pleads for its A-330-900NEO and A350's. It may already be happening for those forty 787-10 intents. 

Commonly phrased, "if we can agree to new options language, new pricing structure, or even build slots thrown in during a year over year build guarantee, let's go back and do it."  

If Boeing goes back to Emirates to sort out the death of the A-380 and assist on the following Emirates fleet renewal plan, expect to see major gamesmanship following this situation for years to come. It may change how both Boeing and Airbus will take no prisoners over any deal-making.  Boeing has already shown an aggressive sales style for 2018. 

Boeing is only one plane type away from filling its complete dance card with the worldwide airlines. The 797 is more import as a market big hit than just another airplane because it provides type completeness. Boeing wants this so desperately to hit it this out of the park before making a 797 commitment. Boeing is not ready with its Boeing data on the project progression so it seems Boeing is waiting for an engine decision and that will take an additional 12 months.

Saturday, February 2, 2019

Ground Hog Day Is About Airports

Having gone to terminal X by underground train at both SeaTac and Denver airports makes me some kind of  Groundhog expert. There are more underground trains gophering a passenger about than those two airports connecting respective terminals. But on Groundhog day it becomes a solution for big aircraft unloading. The national trend suggests trains, planes, and automobiles before the hotel stay.

The groundhog is coming out to predict airports will adjust in 2019 when losing the A380 and gain the 777X in 2020

Friday, February 1, 2019

Airbus Has Flopped In Front Of Emirates

No matter how well intended a corporation makes it case for a customer or how big that customer is for your airline business, it is wise to listen to that same customer and make special considerations for that Customer. Well, Airbus just tunned out Emirates suggestions over the Emirates A-380 Plus suggestion and this is with an overwhelming love for the A380. Emirates is reshuffling its fleet in light of this condition between Airbus and Emirates. The A-350-1000 is still in play for an order as well as the 787-10 and 777X.

However, the collapse of any A-380 deal makes it a more difficult case for the Airbus family of wide-bodied. There is also a caveat lurking around potential deals this big. Boeing seems poised to infiltrate with Emirates and seize the Airplane market with more than a few sweeteners. Boeing will give Emirates essentially what it wants including those big GE9X engines. Emirates is not so anxious to wrap itself with world's largest aircraft symbolism the A380 it gave over the last 15 years. The World's largest twin-engine makes its own statement as airport grew suspicious of crowds disembarking in one massive flow to the luggage station for picking-up luggage at the same airport. Even though the 777X promises a smaller passenger offload by 75 travelers, it can market a better plan for a gaggle of people seeking a sense of direction at the airport hub. 

Telling your biggest A-380 customer "we can't do what you want", suggest Airbus is caught in its own marketing tracks. It is stuck under its own airplane weight and it sinks the program when trying to save all the customers all the time. Airbus has been caught in a leadership vacuum at this time as it shifts corporate heads around. All are afraid of leading the company down a perilous path in their first few months on the job as if leading the light brigade, with a battle cry of "We can't do that", "it isn't our plan to do that!" Boeing takes note and comes back to Emirates with a can-do we'ill build your vision scheme. The 777X explores a plane B approach making more when operating two 777X's than what could ever be done with one A380. World's biggest twin-engine with folding wings is really cool. A double-decker is so yesterday and inefficient. 

Emirates will want another 20 777X and confirmation for 40 787-10's.

Airbus Is Making Boeing Do It, The 797, Boeing wins The Trifecta

Long has Airbus Airbus crept up Boeing's market pinnacle. It has done so so while Boeing took notice. By now, most aviation analyst also has noticed Boeing let go of its 757 program and did not address the A321 success. It just so happens Airbus leads Boeing by those same numbers from A-321 orders that Boeing has fallen behind in the single-aisle market. Airbus has taken about 2200 A-321 orders to date which is what its lead is over Boeing in the single-aisle market. 

However, Boeing's wide-bodied foray into the market has saved the Boeing pride while tarnishing the Airbus machismo. The A380 is dying an untimely death as orders have flooded in for the 787 and the A380 is regarded as a White elephant because the capacity required and markets sought, make for poor risk partners. The 787 does not have to load passengers up to 90% each time it flies like the A-380 to make money for the airline flying it. The 787 can fly at 85% capacity and make money all day long. The A380 saga is more of an indicator measuring Airbus mistakes. However, being late to the Wide-body ball hasn't helped Airbus either. The Airbus A350 family remains behind to pick up the WB meat scraps in the aviation kitchen. I am sure the A-1000 would have been a best seller during the 1990s but the 777X is made for the 21st century and it shows. The A-350-1000 may go the way of the dinosaurs or in this case the A350-1000.

The 777X has already amassed more orders than the A350-1000 at this juncture and if Boeing pulls a trifecta out of its engineering hat then Airbus will slowly slide into obscurity with a strong European contingency backing it up and propping it up for a long time. This brings us back to the Boeing Trifecta the 797, 787, and 777X. Its meant to exhaust Airbus down the backstretch while Boeing prepares for its 2030 single-aisle model which is made for production efficiency as much as .operational efficiency.

Boeing tipped its hand with programs that will quickly build at a lower cost doing, more units while Airbus languishes with its tube and stick models. Boeing hasn't announced the 797 yet until it has something to show customers, which leads me to believe in a production facility near Everett Wa is a 797 mock-up awaiting cameras for what it will look like when it is built for the first time. It will feature all the advances in a model for customers to pour over in that warehouse building. The point of a multi-million mock-up is to generate more sales before the big blow out announcement. Boeing wants more the just four hundred launch orders, it wants the market which Airbus could not enter over the next ten years. It wants a "market nullification" placed on Airbus' head since it succeeded with the A-321 and Boeing had no answer for that model. And it has paid dearly for its own blunder in its prideful single-aisle market place. Boeing's 797 is a course correction. Boeing 787 is an artful tack when the wind shifted and the 777X is the best boat flying over ponds bigger than the backyard of most airlines. The Trifecta is not about three horse races it is about one big change of throw down that knife and pick up the automatic gun before someone shoots.