The 767 Bridge to The 797

Rumors are running the gauntlet of conjecture regarding starting up the 767-300-ER line again. It was closed about three years ago and has since been relegated to freight and the military business endeavors.

The two proposals using the 767 and 797 models can be measured side by side in a theoretical look.

The 797 would beat the 767 in every category listed except maybe the long range distance which is yet to be determined in the theory model. The 797 will be lighter, faster and somewhat roomier than the 767-300ER. It will incorporate the latest Boeing 737 777, and 787 innovations. The to be determine column (TBD) of the 797 is an unknown quantity but Boeing can easily achieve an improvement over the 767 in every category. The only compelling reason  for buying the 767 at this time is a bigger deal is in the works. Buying a 767 now is an order for the 797 launch announcement later. The expected life of a new 767-300ER would be in the ten year range where the 797 would replace it, unit by unit at a preferred customer price. Not only would a new 767 order become very cheap it would lock in a low ball 797 price later. 

All this talk about a 767 order is really talk about acquiring a 797 fleet within the next ten years and United Airlines would be a prime launch customer for the 797 signaled by all this 767 talk.

Dubai and The Tip Of The Wing

So far the airshow is like an Iceberg. Ninety percent is underwater and only the tip is exposed. Egypt Air is in talks with with Boeing for a half dozen 787 before the show opening and Emirates is trying to squeeze Airbus out of some of its old A-380 ideas.

Boeing has a folding wing tip coming into the show which could make things miserable for Airbus' chance of more A-380 sales. Its been noticed by Winging It that as often as Airbus talks about A-380 prospects, it mentions how easily the A-380 is even fitting into regional airports?  Of course that reference could mean a desert airport with copious amounts of sand at the end of the runway. The only jet in the sight of view is the A-380 unloading at some glassed over building having bus service going to the next oasis near-by.

Tongue and cheek humor is the attempt at parking the A-380 in a regional airport and Airbus should know better than quoting how it fits-in everywhere! That is why Airbus is selling about two a year to its airline customers and it hopes for another fifty coming from Emirates at the November airshow. 

Source: Getty

Behind the scenes is not a spectator sport and Boeing is digging sand as fast as it sloughs back in during a sand storm. The expectation is some big announcement surprising the aviation world. Boeing hopes for a long delayed big order from Emirates, those same guys are in talks with Airbus for a new updated A-380 order. 

If Boeing were to win the day at Dubai, Emirates would have to change its business strategy away from the A-380 towards the 777X. However, a small observation shows it ordered 142 of the A-380 with 42 remaining on back order and it also has ordered 150 of the 777X from the last show in 2013. The big elephant in the room is the 777X and not the A-380 since it has already received 100 of the A-380.

So there should not have any additional 777X orders at this year's show. The only outlying is the 787-9 or  787-10. It could fill a Emirates fleet completeness with fifty ordered in a combination of the 787's. Its only speculation at this point and no rumor is floating on that matter. 

The show remains a mystery for orders where Boeing should pick up a sampling of wide body orders rather than having a domination of orders coming from one or two customers. The dark horse is the 737 Max family where a surprising number of the single aisle orders could come in as it is overdue for some more middle eastern love.

The concluding opinion, Dubai is an airshow and not a swap meet. The tradition of order announcements remain a mystery. The expectation of a large order announcement is confined to the life and death throws of the A-380. The show's crowing maybe moved out with an after show deal making spree until year's end since pre show talks are taking so long. 

The show is being used as leverage for making a best deal with a desperate Airbus next week. Boeing is moving behind the scenes hoping it can stay out of the sand trap. Boeing's 787 production is going to 14 a month signaling multiple deals are in the balance. 

Dubai could be a big reveal for why Boeing committed to 14 a month 787 production guidance last summer setting-up next year's output. 

Airline Reporter Dials UP The 777X

Airline Reporter is a read for those who know little about the Boeing program on its upcoming 777X family of aircraft. In brief, this primer obtained through the link above will inform about what the 777X will do. "It's the wing", making this a breakthrough aircraft.

Airline Reporter/Boeing Sketch.

Is The A-380 Too Big To Sell?

The A-380 idea is about 20 years old and has been flying for about twelve years. It used "The Field of Dreams" play book.  A delusion of grandeur unfolded for Airbus promising a break-even point at about four hundred copies in the first half dozen years. However, that day had to rely on some accounting trickery to get out of that promised mess. The airplane has yet to sell even three hundred of its type.

New sales for the A-380 transactions are more symbolic of a buy one get second one free campaign each year. One A-380 order in a year is a big deal. In 2005 it first flew. By 2020 the 777X will fly going farther for less money. In fact today's wide body aircraft can fly two different routes at the same time hauling more people in those different directions than a one direction A-380 behemoth. The 777X will put the A-380 to bed as it ages out of service in the next ten years.

The passenger fantasy for double decked luxuriant travel which is usually reserved for cruise ships does not apply to air travel. Even with 18 hour fights, showers become pointless as there are no balls to dance with even on an A-380. Or does vast amounts of foods exists as found on cruise ships. The travel idea is getting there for the play and not for playing while getting there. The Airbus concept was for each passenger having an exquisite travel experience among five hundred close strangers.

The 777X seeks to find a flexibility for travel rather than only having several dozen ports of call the A-380 has and it will go everywhere having hundreds of cities and countries to visit. Emirates has a definitive business plan for its A-380's but the world will not change fast enough to land its vast fleet of A-380's. The 777X will make airline money in chunks rather than in lumps as the A-380 proposes to do. The 777X must entertain its passengers up to 18 hrs where the A-380 must do the same. In order for the A-380 to do that it must slim down seat numbers while burning fuel on four older engine types.

The A-380 is rapidly becoming a profit boat anchor as it ages. Emirates will order more but after closer examination, that number  may drop from 50 newly ordered to only 20 reordered. The lower realization is for replacement models for its older (or first delivered) A-380's. The fleet expansion will come after the 777X models arrive and not for the A-380's reordered.

Reputation: The Sixth Plate Spinning For Boeing

The reputation element is the corrosive element which can tumble all the plates of an airplane manufacturer has in its arsenal of spinning plates. The metaphoric vision of a entertainer standing on stage has mastered a plate on one pole balanced only because it is spinning. The balance is much like riding a bicycle where the rider takes for granted they will not fall as long there is motion forward with its spinning wheels. The airplane builder also is riding a bicycle or spinning a plate for balance. In fact the airplane maker is spinning up to 6 plates at once for an encore which is more difficult by far than riding a bicycle.

The plates could be labeled with these sub groupings:

• Reputation
• Customer
• Innovation
• Performance
• Reliability
• Results

This list is not  complete but does represent key ingredients found in a successful airplane making business. All the things Boeing, may fall under its various headings. A pyramid could be built with these headings making "Reputation" the key stone at the top of the pyramid. While envisioning a new model like the 787, an observer can interrelate each item listed as a spinning plate. All plates must have an occasional twerk of the pole revving up its spin so it won't fall. A fall of one plate not only brings it down but brings down Reputation every time. Hence, Reputation is the top plate in the stack.

The interrelation of the stack can follow a path through the plates in a logical sequence. Reputation is built by its Customers confidence. Innovation is made for its Customer's sensibility while Performance indirectly serves its Customers and Reliability builds Customer dependency on the plate resulting in an airplane maker's Reputation. The stack of spinning plates receives the applause gained from Results.

Digging further, the R words are goals words. The "C.I.P." words modify the "R" words. A "Customer validates the airlines Reputation. If an airplane falls apart in flight from the way it is built, the airplane reputation fell from the stack and takes everything down becoming an unfortunate "done" deal. The customer refuses to fly on a faulty airplane, innovations didn't work and reliability is out the "Constellation's window" everything else in the pyramid doesn't matter once a reputation plate spins off the stick.

" Lockheed built a total of 856 Constellations (331 of these were for the military). An inordinate number were used to smuggle arms, aliens and drugs. More than one Connie has been anchored to the ground and used as a restaurant or cocktail lounge. General Dwight Eisenhower used a C-121A military variant as his personal craft, named "Columbine" and another after he became President, named "Columbine II". General Douglas MacArthur named his Connie the "Bataan". Connies were used extensively for spraying. They were used for secret snooping, with at least one being shot down by hostile gunfire. Constellations were used to carry thousands of tons of food to starving nations.

    

In the end, the Connie was brought down by the fast developing technology of the jet engine, and in particular the Boeing Model 707 jet airliner."

Innovation sneaks in at the end with the jet engine.

Back to Boeing's 6th plate, the 787 had early developmental mishaps with its battery, improperly assembled aircraft needing shims, and instances of fires during testing. The first thing includes  commercial operation. A hull loss would have ended this program by 2012. By 2017, Boeing has achieved over 600 787 deliveries and its orders appear to pop up every month during 2017. A hull loss is a show stopper for any maker or airline business. The 777 family lost two hulls during the last several years from military shoot down and a mysterious disappearance during its flight. Since no cause of loss have been attributed to the airplane maker, the 777 reputation remains intact. In fact one 777 crashed at at the end of San Francisco's airport with some loss of life while the remaining passengers could walk away from its tumbling during its crashing. The 777 was heralded as complete aircraft worthy of withstanding a crash of this type.

Boeing's reputation is selling its wide bodies during 2017. The innovation and results of the aircraft has built customer confidence enough that Boeing no longer has to spend resources on its reputation. It only has to keep executing in programs by keeping them on the rails without mishap. The performance is directed at the airline customer itself and the passenger indirectly where its reliability becomes a factor for sales and building successful business models for the any airline customers. 

Boeing 787 Numbers Happy Halloween (updated)

Tis the season for Boeing Candy and here are the Monthly 787 Production charts  10/31/2017.

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The 767 Resurrection

Leeham News seemed to have revealed a slip of the press notes when it said market Intel reports about deal is in the making for a huge 767 order of 50-60 for this old wide body.

"The company is in discussions for 50-60 aircraft, market intelligence indicates.

Boeing declined comment, saying it does not discuss conversations with customers."

Boeing Quips:

"We continue to feel very strong about the 767 production line. As you note, we just recently stepped up to 2.5 a month on that production line. ... The fact that we have a combined line that can serve the needs of our commercial and military customers is a unique strength of that line."

-- Muilenberg

The question remains can Boeing deliver for what a customer intends for its delivery pace?

There are many more questions in front of this idea needing answers but it may come before year's end in some sort of order gasp on Boeing's 2017 onslaught towards a banner year.

• Can Boeing Deliver it like it is a 787 in production?
• How low is a price low enough before an answer ends with sold?
• Who is talking to Boeing in the back rooms about the 767?
• What part of the world would a deal like this benefit, South America, Africa or China?
• How Many Airline companies does China have?
• How much cheaper is a 767 vs the A330?

The list price of a 767 300ER is $197 million where a 50% mark-down is $98 million.

The list price of an A-330-300 is $259 million where a 50% mark-down is $129 million.

There is a remark by an SA aviation analyst the price could be $70 million for each 767 in question.

Another Look At Boeing's Third Quarter Backlog

A formal new feature was almost forgotten. Bellow is the third quarter 2017 Boeing backlog in units and total dollar value. 

Thoughts "Qantas almost certainly won't order all 45 Boeing 787s" (ABT)

The Australian Business Traveler wrote about how Qantas may not pick up all its 45 787-9 options into the future. Qantas has changed since those heady days when when it was a Boeing order star in 2005. That was during the early introduction of the 787 program. Since then, things have changed. Qantas has become a stalwart bell-weather of airline control by its leader Alan Joyce.

The conservative approach has muffled high aspirations of its world dominance theme from Australia. Qantas had to make adjustments for getting its financial books in order before anything was changed. The existing fleet had to last until a corporate turn-around was achieved.

Qantas' conservative approach has done just that and it just has received  its first 787-9 from an option pool turned firm order of eight aircraft. Its option book only has 45 more aircraft it could turn into deliveries at a set price when buying aircraft and extras. The Australian Business Traveler says it may not happen. 

Winging It happens to agree with the article from a different perspective or from a different emphasis mentioned in the article. The standing option is just a starting point for this company twelve years later. A lot has changed since the initial deal with Boeing. Qantas flooded its off-shoot, Jet Star, with a fleet of 787-8's. It was a work-around for a beleaguered Qantas at the time. The Jet Star fleet performed as advertised and Qantas took note of the success. Jet Star's mission was not to step on the Qantas toes or try to become a world beater.

As mentioned before much has changed since those days. The 747 is no longer "needed", its retired. The world's aviation playing field has evolved. Many airlines now crisscross the skies Qantas had envision it would fill a dozen years ago. Australian travel requirements have also changed. New routes are coming into play from continent to continent that are specific to Australia and its paired continent.  

New aircraft development is on the horizon from its main aircraft provider, Boeing. The 797 is a NMA coming to the fore front and Australia is just the right size for a NMA. New Zealand and Indonesia is "next door". An NMA is made for an Australian domain going about 5,500 miles. The Australian Business Traveler is correct noticing Qantas would not take all 45 787-9's from an option position. The 787 option is a Qantas pile of poker chips needed for doing future deals in a changing market.

Qantas is the long haul provider and Jet Star would be a 797 candidate. Qantas will not need 45 787-9's unless world conditions change and competing airlines from China or the middle east slow down its purchase of 787's.

The poker chips can be parlayed into a mix order including 797's 787-9's and 787-10's. It can also rise in number of orders from 45 depending on the over arching objectives Qantas will have from mixing up its fleet. This is where a Winging It opinion works into this story.

Qantas/Jet Star may turn its 45 787-9 options into a 60 orders for a mix of 20 Jet Star 797's, 20 Qantas 787-9's and 20 Qantas 787-10's. Qantas will keep stacking its poker chips from its profits until Boeing announces the 797 program. The 787-9 and 787-10 programs aren't going anywhere soon so Qantas can wait for the 797 to be announced with Qantas being part of that fun in behalf of Jet Star.

The seat count of 250, 300 and 330 for each respective model and the ranges established would make Qantas a head to head competitor with SIA in the South East Asia quadrant. The capable ranges for each type mentioned of 5,500 (797), 9,500 (-9), and 6,500 (-10) miles respectively covers both Jet Star's and Qantas' needs. The source for fleet aligning comes from its old 787 options (45) still remaining around in the Qantas order books. In ten years this mix could evolve as all airline fleets need to evolve as it is capable of doing and Qantas has become a very capable airline.

Backlog A Chink In The Airbus Armour

Its been stated the sweet spot for a maker of popular air frames is for the one who can deliver within a airlines planning and expansion needs. It is therefore important not to make a customer wait more than five years for financial planning purposes. The outer limit for purchase risk is usually about five years. The backlog pole position becomes important to any major framer of popular airplane models.



A quick formula would be taking backlog and dividing by the optimal production pace per year. The Airbus guidance is 120 A-350's a year by 2018. Boeing will make 14 787 a month by 2018 or 168 units for the year. Using these expected productivity pacing of 10 and 14 units per month respectively, an expectation can be made how far out is the back log.

Airbus' 744 unit A-350 backlog with 120 units a year delivery pace  suggest a back log for newly placed orders at 6.2 years before its order book delivers a newly placed order.

Boeing's 683 unit 787 backlog with with a 168 unit delivery pace projected for 2018, only has a 4.0 year backlog which is easily within an airlines five year plan if it placed an order today. 

However, the backlog production position is a fluid and dynamic placement. There are airlines who delay or cancel an order. The backlog position may shift monthly opening up a build position sooner for  those needing a delivery quickly. That too becomes a separate airline risk of when it could expect a delivery if it finds itself at the back of the order line, and it needs its aircraft closer to front of the line.

The Airbus 6.2 year backlog as compared with the Boeing 4.0 year backlog gives Boeing more flexibility for giving its new orders a closer look at timely deliveries for its airline customer. Receiving an airplane after 6.2 years from an order date implies a greater risk is taken by an airline when it awaits its order for a longer period of time.

The chart below provides a glimpse of a customer's relative position if it ordered today it could expect more flexibility when buying the 787 respective to the A-350. This is a big incentive to order Boeing's 787.

Boeing is able to grow its backlog to 1,044 unit backlog and keep pace with the Airbus backlog of 744 units from a production perspective. At this time the customer could safely order the Boeing 787 up to 361 more units before it becomes even with Airbus backlog when comparing both framers production capability, since Boeing will produce 14 787 units to the Airbus guidance of 10 A-350 units per month.  

The Five Year Blogging Mark

I have said several times, I'm done with writing the blog. However, since I'm still "dabbling" with the blog, it is important to note it was five years ago, I started the first experimental posting seeing how this blog thing would work. In commemoration of the first test blog I am linking it to this first posting for posterity's sake.

October 17, 2012 (1,231 postings and counting)

British Airways Announce Start Of First 787 Construction

Here is the BA book today it has added the 787-10

The F-35 Sustainment In Question

There are about 250 F-35's in use at this time and one operational component for the F-35 is sustainment. The aircraft not unlike an automobile needs parts after so many hours of operation but it is not as simple as oil, spark plugs and a new starter. Things break while under operational flying. The aircraft is grounded until parts arrive. The DoD has estimated 22% of the 250 flying copies are grounded while awaiting maintenance supplies such as a new part or scheduled maintenance service.



The problem will increase as the F-35 fleet increases and Lockheed is about to expand production by at least two fold. Expect the F-35 fleet to double when Lockheed goes to full rate production. In two years Lockheed could deliver another 250 F-35's before a request for proposal bid for spare parts can even be issued, let alone having parts made and delivered to the arm forces. 

A prime problem are for aircraft going to sea. All support parts must be carried on the vessel when deployed at sea or otherwise the F-35B or F-35C is parked in the hanger deck awaiting maintenance parts and supplies until after a ship returns from deployment. Not a good outlook for the F-35 in combat.

Maybe, a 22 % grounding of aircraft is a typical expectation in an over-all fleet of aircraft. The US hopes to rotate a significant number of F-35's as needed when one becomes inoperable due to maintenance headaches. However, not having a reserve fleet of aircraft complicates the early delivery of F-35's in the deployment front as so few F-35's are available and are flyable. There is no reserve as the F-35 goes over seas and it has no readily available parts all the time. It becomes a hit and miss condition for supporting combat ready F-35's.

It could be said, that a 40% grounding makes a combat crises when depending on its front line fighter capability. It takes years for the bureaucracy to field parts sufficiently for a full operational F-35 capability.  

The problem arises for all new aircraft types as it is deployed. The military does not know what to plan for until a history of wear and tear is established under its routine of full operation. The forecast for maintenance is just being established as years of testing is showing what breaks and what wears out on the F-35's first. The Full Operational Capability (FOC) can only be evaluated after the F-35 has been in the field for multiple years. It takes another multiple of years to schedule maintenance parts and supplies for the level of FOC it will achieve. There is a gap in the feeding chain for full F-35 maintenance sustainment.

Planners saw this coming a long time ago but where helpless to do anything about it until the US Congress will fund the maintenance portion as it awaits the aircraft deployment to its missions and then it could identify costs. This is another rough patch for the F-35 for what it will encounter over the next five years as it establishes its maintenance requirements from broken or used up parts during the course of its FOC.

So Far Boeing Nets 47 Orders In October

Boeing just booked 30 737 Max and 10 777's from an unidentified customer. The month of October  in a pre Dubai Airshow position had a robust order month. In all there were 5-787's, 30-737-8's and 10-777's. The icing on the cake were two more C-40 Clippers totaling 47 aircraft. Additionally, there was a transfer of orders from 16 737-8  NG's to 16 737 Max 8's. The dollar value of orders list price totals $8.5 billion. 

The price value adjustment relates to 16 737 NG 8's converted to 16 Max 8's. The net value change is $.23 Billion. This calculation is in the fifth column going right. A monthly recap only indicates the active purchase results for October and no purchase projections can be assumed or inferred.

However, it is an assumption when the month prior to the Dubai Airshow where Boeing has such a robust order book; it should expect a solid order book for November and  expect more orders during December when Boeing wraps-up its many order intents (LOI/MOU) as it can.

Boeing Order Update 10-26

Boeing reached 538 net orders for its YTD numbers. The gross order count stands at 621 units. The Singapore WB order is included in this count. An addition of 40 unidentified orders were booked including 30 737's and 10 777's. Boeing continues to outpace Airbus this year for orders booked for all types of airplanes. An end of October the subtotal for both Airplane builders should reveal how much Boeing orders are ahead of Airbus with only two months remaining in 2017.

The NMA May Come From The 767-400 Configuration (added information)

Boeing is refusing to commit for building a new NMA 797. However, it does own the 767 where it could borrow from that program with many features. Below is  767-400 seating options in pictures which falls into a 250 seat range and could be used as a base line for the 797 proposal.

767-400 program sketches 

The problem with the 767-400 is its maximum take-off weight (401,000) and its prior generation engines hung on the wings. It is not as efficient as the A-330-900 NEO. The 797 would solve that problem immediately with a carbon fiber body, wings and new GE 787 like engines hung on its wings. This is what Boeing could be waiting for is a breakthrough development for a NMA engine.

The maximum take-off weight for a NMA may come in significantly lighter for its dimension when compared with the 767-400, but the lighter weight would allow for more fuel for an extended range rendition of the NMA proposal. Boeing would stick with a 5,500 mile aircraft but it then could have a 6,500 miles extended range version. 

The technology is ripe for a complete 767 passenger replacement(797), leaving the commercial freighter and military tanker versions keeping the 767's original design features for metal aircraft.

MRO Quote: 

"The experience gleaned from the Boeing 777 spotlights the durability leap that composites offer. The 777’s composite vertical fin requires about 35% fewer scheduled maintenance hours than the 767’s aluminum fin, despite being 25% larger. This leap is why 787 air frame maintenance costs are projected to be about 45% lower than those of the 767-300ER, Boeing’s calculations show."

The whole of the MRO article frequently uses the 767 as the backdrop for the 777X improvements. Boeing maybe doing another "mini" moonshot with a 797 using all things learned from these three programs. The programs would include, 737 Max, 787, and 777X. 

The NMA market could be larger than reported for Boeing, since it would fill an exclusive slot in the proverbial "Gap" found in the commercial aviation market place. Boeing reported about a 5,000 aircraft demand in the NMA "Gap". Not all would be future Boeing orders but it could capture 70%of the market if it gets it right at first delivery. This number using 70% comprises 3,500 aircraft sales from Boeing's estimate of a 5,000 segment potential. 

A sliding percentage potential indicates risk would be low for a new start-up model before the competitors catch on to this concept for a NMA type.

• 100% market share for the NMA is 5,000 units
• 90% market share for the NMA is 4,500 units
• 80% market share for the NMA is 4,000 units
• 70% market share for the NMA is 3,500 units
• 60% market share for the NMA is 3,000 units
• 50% market share for the NMA is 2,500 units

Boeing could prosper with a 2,500 unit market for a new start-up aircraft type and its sunk costs over the next 20 years.

The 767-400 Specifications

  

A NMA would beat all the key performance indices of the 767-400 easily once it uses new wings, body, and engines. It could also be eligible for Laminar Flow Technology which is missing on the metal single aisle aircraft and the 787-8. All the lessons learned and paid for would make this an exceptional aircraft.

The complete book of proven innovations would be included on any NMA beating the current 767 models in service. The NMA would borrow the 15'+ across in the passenger area noted by the 767 air frame.

The market appeal should abandon any reference to the 767 model, since it represents old technology and the 797 remains as the primary available number for a new model type. 

However, the point here, is making a recommendation for a replacement for both the 757 and 767 class of travel at the same time. Boeing should introduce a 797-8 replacing the 757 and a 797-9 replacing the 767-300-ER . It has the configuration formula needed from the 767 program and the efficiency technology from the 787 program. 

The Singapore Airline Deal Is Much More Than Just A 39 Wide Body Backlog

Singapore Airlines made a ceremonial signing for 20 777-9X's and 19 787-10's. The long held Boeing customer reaffirmed its relationship as a important Boeing customer. This order, long anticipated, and is an already booked Boeing order last summer changed the aviation world as the balance of aviation power shifted towards Boeing. The mega airplane builder needed a symbolic order that established it as the premier maker in the industry. The "other guy" wasn't even close in this particular order battle. Airbus shallow depth of models exposed itself in the order competition.

Boeing and Airbus gave it its all during the order process. Both knowing the winner of this competition would take home the airplane of the year trophy. Before the 787-10 is even delivered the pundits have recognized it to be the most efficient airplane at every level of operation when comparing seat/mile cost with everything else. The only show item missing is its distance doesn't fly around the world or at least half way round the world. The 787-10 wasn't designed for extra long distance routes. It was designed for serving the most passengers going to the most places in the world at the lowest costs for the airline. If an airplane can serve 90% of the world's origin-destinations pairings, then it has a bright future. The 787-10 is more than a star in this segment. It is an undaunted example of scaling up success.

The customer, Singapore has now booked 49 examples of the 787-10. A quick look at the globe and Singapore's position on the world indicates the Airline desires dominance in a 6,000 mile circle from its home base.

Airbus was competing with Boeing on this order since it already had a substantial  part of Singapore's fleet. It has 22 A-330, 18 A-350 and 19 A-380's in its fleet. The back order for Singapore stands at 49 A350-900's and 5 A-380's. The A-380 order is teetering, as it has already returned some of its leased A-380 aircraft.  The airbus fleet count of 59 with an order count suggests the 22 A-330 will be retired leaving the Singapore fleet with just A-350's and its A-380's varying in numbers and having the back-order of 49 A350-900's replacing the fleet as needed.

Boeing has 52 wide bodies in the fleet. Twenty-five of the 777-200's will be retired by the A350-900's. Boeing also has 27 777-300-ER's. Therefore it can be assumed they will stay and will be rotated out over time going forward. The order combination of 20 777-9X and 49 787-10's will give Singapore  Airlines 69 wide bodies coming in while replacing its Boeing and Airbus aircraft already aging in the fleet.

An expectation is that the 20 777-9X will replace the A380 as they age in the next ten years. The 49 787-10's will replace the balance of the Boeing 777-300-ER fleet as it also retires. Bottom line, what was once a 50/50 fleet from two makers suggests Boeing in the next ten years will dominate Singapore Airlines fleet. There could be an additional follow on order within 5 years depending how the 777-9X works out while in service.  The 777-9X will outperform the Airbus fleet and the 787-10's will fit better with Singapore's routes than the A350-900 since the 787 will be more efficient per seat/mile under 6,500 miles. The A350-900 has too much distance performance for a majority of Singapore Airline needs. 

How Far Has The 797 Gone Depends On The 777X Program

The much talked about 797 is a lady in waiting as Boeing refines its newly installed 777X manufacturing and assembly center in Everett, Wa. Last summer was a glimpse of Boeing's vision when it hinted about the 797 program but it had unfinished business to attend to, the 777X program. It is clear Boeing is learning lessons on the 777X program and that will shape the 797 program for a NMA airplane.

Boeing is making giant carbon wings in its massive Everett location. It is automating the build process eliminating the mechanics rule of thumb on installation of fasteners and various processes. The bugs it encounters are legend. The reward is a change in how humanity builds massive things. The things from Sci-Fi is becoming a reality at this juncture. Boeing has a to-do list before announcing its next venture. The 777X program has already sunk billions into its life form as its a massive replacement of the 777-300-ER. The importance of the production transformation envisions a 777-300-ER in one position and a 777-9X directly behind it coming through the process.

All that needs to done on the factory floor is switch the software for its assembly machines for the types of 777 coming through its process. At this time it was reported that Boeing had over 12,000 corrections needing fixing within the processes. The schedule it attempts has managements full attention and full confidence it will meet the challenge. The 777X is on course for a 2020 deadline.

However, another step remaining for the emergence of the 797 is the completion of 777X process. The 797 is awaiting validation for processes it will use during its build. It will be built differently, but will be built on lessons learned from all its current programs combined. It will have a remarkable wing coming from the lessons on both the 787 and 777X wings manufacture. 

The body pieces will have a new process for formation and assembly but it will also borrow from the 777X process and suggests the 797 may become a mix process in assembly with some other type of Boeing aircraft. The 777-300 and 777X is going to be a mixed process in the same factory space. The 797 could share space in Charleston, SC,  or where the 787-9 is built in Everett.

The known attributes for the 797: it has is duo aisle, 5,500 mile range and up to 270 passengers. That suggest it will be closer to a 787 size than a Max size. The 797 may not have carbon fiber barrels flown around the world or will the wings come from Japan. The 797 may be built and supplied at home locations. IT could be a rail option or a barge option in play. A large single part barrel could float or rail IT to the assembly location or all Carbon Fiber body part could be made onsite of the assembly location. 

Charleston comes to mind for that kind of flexibility where a 797 could be made and assembled on location without using dream lifters. That kind of out of the box thinking would require Charleston to build only the 787-10 and the 797 as the same time. This would leave Everett to its 787-9 and 777-9X programs.

Boeing will produce a clean sheet small airplane design after the 797 would enter service in five plus years from now. The year 2030 is ripe for such an announcement for having a new single aisle for 2035. If Boeing can reduce costs on all its processes then a carbon fiber single aisle is logical in 2035.

The hardest decision is coming up for a Boeing numbering convention since the 797 exhausts the sequence. Boeing may have to go back to the 757 number and add NSA to the number meaning New Single Aisle. Boeing asked Airbus if NSA was already taken.

Boeing's Old News: Now Becomes Singapore's New "News"

The heads of state sat in and participated on the signing of 20 777-9X and 19 787-10's thus bolstering Boeing's order book and was signed into a Singapore Airline order recognition. Boeing can identify a previous order "intent" from Singapore for these wide body during the signing. 



The real news is why Boeing booked this "unidentified" order before today's ceremony at the White House in the USA. Boeing's book now stands unchanged from yesterday's documentation except 39 orders previously recorded as unidentified earlier this year are now identified as a Singapore order. The average aviation follower who does a cursory scan of aviation articles may be confused but this is an attempt to untangle how following big transactions are crazy.

Going back to Paris Airshow 2017, a reader following the events comes up with a hundred different scenarios reported by the press. First there was 200 737-10 Max announced, then there was  361 737 Max-10's having LOI's, MOU's and firm purchases for its press release. Another take said there were conversion's from the Max 8 into the Max 10's. Trying to make sense out of it all is an idiots pursuit. What really did happen at Paris?

Now comes just one simple order for 20 777-9X and 19 787-10's from Singapore Airlines. It was long ago announced in the press Singapore ordered 39 wide bodied aircraft in a major deal which shifted the battle away from Airbus and gave victory to Boeing. It was reported as an order win for the 777-9X program. Boeing had a big 777X order dry spell for a long time and Singapore shifted the paradigm for wide body aircraft towards Boeing. 

However, a funny thing happened on the order book. Boeing reported it as 39 unidentified wide body orders. Singapore today signed with the President of The United States completing 39 firm orders of wide body aircraft. Boeing updates its order book by changing 39 unidentified order units into Singapore Airlines. The bottom line; order count does not change at this point in time as Boeing still show's 177 787-10's and  326 777X's, the same number for each type at the end of September 2017. 

Did Boeing violate its own policy of not announcing a deal until the deal is done and when the customer wants it announced? Did the customer announce a transaction twice in the same year while wanting to remain unannounced? This is a very difficult situation for any airplane counter to deal with and report about. That is why Winging IT charts and graphs from Boeing's own un-audited report updates from its website before trying to say something accurate about what has happened. On another note, the Paris Airshow numbers have been a nightmare to track when trying to reconcile press reports to Boeing's own order book it publishes.

What is known is that Singapore Airlines and its Prime Minister, in a ceremony with the President of the United States, signed some documents saying they are buying 39 wide body aircraft with six options for each type of aircraft ordered. 

This already "done deal" is now officially becomes a "done deal" and Boeing can now change its unidentified orders that "hadn't happened until today" by 20 777-9X and 19 787-10 over to the Singapore Air account. The order book gross number for both those programs does not change only the word "unidentified" changes over to "Singapore Airlines", but you already knew that since Boeing and the press reported it a long time ago.