Reviewing Boeing's NMA Timing

It has been talked about for the last few years or longer with those who know what is up with the Boeing plan for an NMA aircraft. Boeing got the message a long while ago that Airbus was here to stay until put down by some economic maelstrom or a worthy competitor. Boeing prefers the competition option over economic devastation because that too would close Boeing's vast doors.

Hence, Boeing has a plan for timing its 797 inaugural announcements of who, what and when the 797 airplanes come. The timing can't come too soon or too late. Coming soon will strap Boeing with years of trial and error or its building up of plant capability without a firm backlog. Coming too late will increase the risk of market indifference because its competitor may answer Boeing's idea with an NMA creating a divided market. Boeing will avoid 797 deferred costs as it experienced on the 787 program. It has to be spot on from the initial announcement and that announcement must come in 2018. A lot of work is being done at this time by Boeing. It will have to live with its NMA decision for the next 50 years.

The NMA must replace the 757 and 767 at the same time. It must also strike a balance with the Max and the Dreamliner at the same time while not hurting other of Boeing's types share of sales. Most of all it must excite and motivate customers into presenting new business plans for its respective airlines, using the NMA model. It has already achieved exciting its customer base but has not confirmed how it will deal the final 797 look. 

Asia wants freight with passengers. North America wants passengers and its luggage. The compromise is modest between market worlds is having less passenger room and freight space but not to the extent a 767 frame could carry but only to the extent, the Asian market would carry nominal regional freight along with its passengers' luggage.

Boeing will dither with that problem after it announces the 797. It will have North American Launch customers, yes, like Delta. It will have European launch customers like BA or Norwegian and possibly Ryan Air, who may convert some single-aisle orders into a launch customer duo aisle order.
ANA or JAL would be leading candidates for Asian Launch customers. China at this time is a wait and see, "customer", as it finds its way through future business models. The China market has not caught the NMA mission Boeing proposes.

There are enough players to launch an NMA at this time! Boeing hasn't finished dotting the "i" and crossing the NMA "t". The year "2018", is the time and the year is almost half over. An Airshow is needed for this grand announcement. The target is Europe because it suits North America to go and make a splash at Farnborough. Boeing would have seven years ahead for beating deadlines and making advertising headway over milestones reached. The announcement year 2019 begins to squeeze the 2025 delivery schedule. Boeing is already working on the NMA as this is being written. A 2020 announcement year allows Airbus into the discussion and anything after is not doable for meeting a 2025 first delivery.

Boeing is already building the NMA but configuration designs are not firmed. My own crazy take comes into play at this point. Boeing will not build an oval-shaped body but will make a hybrid of an ovoid shaped body. The top half is an ovoid shape for passenger room across starting at the seat level and the bottom half of the body is somewhat circular, resembling current aircraft shapes at the landing gear level. 



The design would allow for some freight and give passengers duo aisle space at seven across. The hybrid change gives both North America and Asia a look at its own business needs without going extreme within its concepts.