Boeing's Freight Ship Comes In "survey class 101 notes"

Below is the Boeing.com freight outlook based on forecasting methods accepted by the industry. The volume of freight growing the next twenty-five years will have to accept seasonality or exponential smoothing math inputs based on historical trends over prior years.

In essence, fuel price change, market governance, and political influence have historically disrupted the outcome of a forecast in its math modeling for a financial outcome. Most forecasts take into account economic seasonality and it makes a smoothing error component for a forecast. In other words, history has indicated a recession every seven years which directly affects the subject matter of freight growth from this current time until the year 2038.

The Boeing forecast takes into account those lumpy occurrences from economic, political, and seasonal market changes when making a Freight business forecast for selling equipment into the future time period.

The Boeing outlook does its due diligence when it eliminates outlying market conditions which have little consequence for the over-arching demands from the world’s bases of commerce. Using minutia data becomes a tangled web sorting out what will occur, but any forecast must establish the highest probability that its outlook will definitely occur when all conditions are considered in that outlook

Boeing.COM Air Freighter Outlook twenty years outward.

"The number of airplanes in the worldwide freighter fleet will increase by 70 percent during the next 20 years as air cargo traffic more than doubles

With air cargo traffic more than doubling by 2035, the world freighter fleet will grow by more than 70 percent, from the current 1,770 airplanes to 3,010 airplanes by the end of the forecast period. Growing demand for regional express services in fast-developing economies will increase the standard-body share of the freighter fleet from 36 percent today to 42 percent in 20 years. All new deliveries of standard-body freighters will be converted to passenger airplanes. The growth of the standard-body share of the fleet will result in a decline in the large- and medium-widebody shares of the total fleet over the forecast period, from 31 and 33 percent to 28 and 31 percent, respectively.

Of the 2,370 projected freighter deliveries, 1,130 will replace retiring airplanes, with the remainder expanding the fleet to meet projected traffic growth. More than 60 percent of deliveries will be freighter conversions, nearly 88 percent of which will be standard-body passenger airplanes. A projected 930 new production freighters, valued at $270 billion, will be delivered, of which almost 60 percent will be in the large-freighter category.

Freighter fleet will increase by more than half – Standard-body freighters gain a significant share of the market.