American Airlines Validates Before Buying

Watching the firm order books of an airline tells the story of its heart. American has 89 787 ordered and 35 of its types delivered according to Allthings787 website coming from its charts. Counting the 22 787-8's, American firmly claims it is buying 25 more 787-9's for its fleet of wide-body. United likes what it already has and it needs a fleet renewal process including replacing A-330's, 767's, and 777-200's.

American already has 35 787's in its fleet and now has 54 more 787's in a delivery backlog when including the 22 787-8 and 25 787-9's it just ordered. The analysis of this order is a Winging It attempt of making market sense out of this order:

·      It' fleet replacement only

·      It's staying with what works best for American after thousands of hours of service

·      It's about fleet and ground efficiencies, hence fleet commonality

American should not look at the 777X or 787-10 until the 777X goes to market and there are more than only four 787-10's in service with Singapore Airlines. American is risk adverse but pro-Boeing. It gave Boeing a "solid" with this order and Boeing knows the message was received. After about 20 787-10's have flown several years and the 777X starts demolishing the A-380 market, American may step up and replace its 777 fleets with the new 777X variants. It could go for a 777-8/777-9 by 2030 after its market performances are measured and evaluated. American is that risk adverse so no new Boeing aircraft hence it administered a time deferral on its 40 single-aisle it had ordered from Boeing.

Southwest Airlines fleet of 737 Max may push American Airlines into a decision if the Max delivers its promise after a few years. It's well on track for making a market splash with dependability and performance. The biggest problem for American is ordering after Boeing builds a massive backlog of all its types American desires. The recent American order for 47 787's may have secured an American place in the production line no matter what and when it makes future orders.

The risk adverse American Airlines rears its head in the case of new airplane types ordered. Using this premise for American Airline's caution for new aircraft types, the 797 would be a 2030+ type of order and not a launch customer type of risk taker. United and Delta are Northern Hemisphere risk takers making them having 797 launch customer potential with Boeing.