Starving Airline Geeks (I had a better headline but forgot it)

Aviation geeks form a whole new industry. New airplanes or at least the prospect of a new airplane churns out quantum of script about the subject which in turn churns out another trainload of paper embellishment about what a new airplane would be and another round of talking about what was just talked about and so forth. It is as if someone has lined mirrors reflecting into infinity someone’s statements about a New Medium Aircraft. I am too, am guilty of mirror gazing airline geeks into infinity at the mirror (mere) suggestion of a new aircraft.

Boeing has for a better part of a generation given fodder to the “geek” in which geeks in return assign advertising for its sage commentary. No one really makes money, but that isn’t the point, it’s all about having the real scoop on a new airplane idea. This all occurs during stage one of a geeks feeding frenzy. 

Currently, phase I in a series of feeding frenzies is being experienced which is the fun phase. Everything is valid as much as it can be a stupid statement. No one gets it "wrong" until phase II, aka “The Announcement”. Stage I only has renderings, sketches, and just plain old fashion “I-told-you-so”, speculations. That is where the 797 is today. Stage II has a photo op of an airplane model on a table (at an airshow) which will generate 1,000 articles out of that frenzy.

Tomorrow is coming soon with an announcement near the next airshow and the Boeing’s clock is ticking on a market not waiting much longer for an NMA announcement. Once it chooses the right engine, the right facilities, and suppliers, its game on for the 797. Boeing already knows how to make an airplane from the sum of its pile of parts. It also needs money and customers. Boeing has found the money and is rounding up the last of Airbus former customers when making an announcement point at the next airshow. Parts are already in the parts bin at the Boeing facilities around the world.

The blogger then gets a crack at stage III, “The critique”. They attempt to answer Why?, What?, and Where? in some kind of blogging sense. It then becomes fun for the reader of said blogs. None of it makes real sense until stage ???. What is important at this stage is the should of-would of-could of

intelligent remarks about a concept yet to be flown. Once it does fly in tests, the rancor increases with a crescendo until Qantas flies from Perth to London on a 787-9 or Singapore takes delivery on a 787-10. 

The world of blogging turns kinder and gentler with its “I told you so” commentary of how wonderful the flight was in business class with copious amounts of free food. The bloggers are so wise at the first specter of free food. Phase X is complete and onto London.

What about phase IV? This is a good blogging question for anyone retired on a pension with nothing to do but fly to Hawaii on a 787-9 in business class. Too many words so little time. Phase IV is about the first build, first flight, and first press conference. Bloggers get the first round of “I told you so’s in before something intelligent is said. Just read on and agree at this point as all geeks do in unison when an airplane is spotted.

Phase VIII is about what passengers think. They talk about food, jet lag and the lack of pillows in the economy. The airline customer talks about recalls, fixes and being in a fix during the first three years of service of a new NMA. The blogger repeats what everyone else has said whether “they” know anything or not. I’m a blogger, I know.

Phase infinity, “The Airshow”.

The airshow comes about all the time as if some kind herpes outbreak at a wedding reception. No one kisses but everyone smiles a lot. The airshow is about free advertising for whom you represent. Microphones dot tables more frequently than the latest tie and shirt posed in a photo. The airline geek is there too. A picture is taken means a blog is written about the picture. The hallway picture headlined an article about where to find the best free food at the airshow. 

Some blogger took a picture of a 737 Max tail cone and talked about the overhead bins on an A-380 parked at the other end of the show. Makes sense, they know there was an airshow and not necessarily being present at the airshow.

What about Phase IX, Orders? Now that’s some real writing meat! If Boeing gets 400 orders for its NMA at Farnborough Airshow, multiply that times ten, and that’s how many orders they will book in ten years. 

This is a scientific math formula derived from a blogger who went to a University one semester. First Airshow order announcement times ten equals’ program strength of 4,000 units. I too have a BS degree in business and it sounds right to me. BS stands for Blogger Smarts and it can be a business if computer savvy enough. Actually, accounting was my major and is now needed for counting orders before writing.

Therefore my scientific analysis based on statistics and rounded by regression analysis comes to about 375 NMA’s announced with 250 options at Farnborough when Boeing announces its 797. Times all this by ten years it will equal 3,750 orders and 2,500 options for its program ceiling.